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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Enough, now.

I have said to PM me with any concerns. Back to the models now, please?!

And just to be clear on this, as it seems some are not reading my posts correctly..

I haven't once said that no one is allowed to post about the strat in here.

I have said twice now, strat chat is fine if you're mixing it in to musings around standard model discussion, it's exactly the same as our guidelines for tweets/met office, which has always been the same.

Stop stressing and continue as normal - there's no issues at all here. 🙂

 although I know you said to PM you I think the strap thread itself need to be updated we are still posting on the 2017 I believe for 1920 I think that should be a new thread sorry for the off topic.

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The ext EPS continues the quite quick evolution of the NH pattern

Upstream now an Alaskan ridge and quite intense tpv northern Russia with an extension to northern Canada and the adjacent high cell that has been established during the evolution. There is a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter flowing across the Atlantic via the mid Atlantic trough to the UK where it is now inhibited as the ridge in the east has decayed. THis would indicate an unsettled period but temps now trending above average. Keep still my beating heart

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5201600.thumb.png.50261070d750e3888bdc766c0539cf55.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5201600.thumb.png.65ebb4736c07a1a7270b6d8c62d32113.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5201600.thumb.png.6c9123bb4ca7509c4d906d4f2f5c6e5b.png

 

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47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The uncertainty is huge isn't it, but perhaps the least uncertain part of it is the location of the trop vortex.  

So as far as the hunt for cold is concerned, which doesn't have it's own thread so I'll use this one

Hi Mike 🙂 I remember there use to be one not sure why there isn't one anymore or mabye there is and I haven't seen it. :unknw:

Anyway Gfs ensembles look quite a lot more unsettled further ahead again upper air temperatures look to be uncertain atm but a trend above average..

1265797078_ens_image(36).thumb.png.387dca51d9f8d054010d08b8d3fb8c65.png

For a change I thought I'd add the Gem ensembles too a similar theme to the Gfs..

121200653_ens_image(37).thumb.png.572eb7658639bb59e16bde6ce241229c.png

Edited by jordan smith

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Nowt too exciting about today's GFS 12Z, IMO. Aye, there's some cold air up to our north, but I have a nasty wee feeling that the depression, out in the Atlantic, will sweep mildness northeastward...But, as it's at T+384, who knows?:unknw:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Les ensembles don't suggest a cold, snowy outlook, either.:oldsad:

t2mLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

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Evening all 🙂

Well, it's still a couple of months before I get interested in the winter model output so just an observation or two.

Back in the spring of 2013, the GFS would constantly show FI with milder "zonal" conditions returning to break the cold spell but they didn't verify for weeks. Now we are seeing a lot of output (12Z Control) showing a more conventional zonal aspect returning in far FI but the 12Z OP is much less certain tonight. GEM and ECM out to T+240 keep the southerly tracking jet in play as well.

I don't know and the model output reflects a lack of a clear signal. 

I follow the Stratosphere thread as a novice and am in awe of the knowledge of many on there - I fear a displacement from the Eurasian side will simply knock the PV back to Canada and fire up a 10-14 day Atlantic spell. As others have said, keeping the PV over Siberia (and the trop-strat disconnect) helps those looking for cold. Would the displaced PV be weak enough to encourage Scandinavian HP?

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is easy on the eyes if milder and unsettled is your thing.👍

EDM0-144.thumb.gif.783c97209a1cd3e7dbcb5f8ae0f1c5bc.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.d870fa818280bc99d58f334007f8553c.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.158296a1a10a49d1020b9637c5e5cfda.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.7786647bfce6bfe00fb9f4e6ed1371a2.gif

PS..I'm now reactionless:cray:

Edited by JON SNOW

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I'm glad I left the dirty work for you Karl, to post those horrid ECM means charts😉 but tbh they have been hinting at it for some time!! And a little message for @Mike Poole you say your getting exhausted with this model watching and that you still haven't witnessed a snowflake yet!!! The problem is Mike dear man, we are hunting for the perfect set up, far to early these days!! November extremes of snow and cold is as rare as a pig in a fur coat. We have several more months of this just yet, and I'm running low on prozac already!! Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride. Hoping things improve shorty as you were with the ECM mean... Pretty dam ordinary. 

graphe_ens3 (1).png

graphe_ens3.png

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Jetstream profile forecasts for rest of the month would suggest low pressure being steered in a direct course for the UK, which will no doubt result in plenty more rain, and heaviest totals not just reserved for northern parts as tends to be the norm, given the more southerly position of the jet. Also becoming a bit flat which suggests troughs may now be able to move further to the east. Temperatures overall preety close to average certainly nothing overly mild for the time of year, nor conversely anything particularly cold.

No sign the jet will align on a more northerly path anytime soon, which gives every chance for something colder to develop in time from the north, so not surprised to see some of the models showing a northerly in the outer realms of model timescale.

This certainly looks like going down as a trough dominating November, with barely any high pressure on the scene. The pressure pattern for the month will show a very deep trough direct over the UK, strong heights to the east and to the north. Suspect for many sunshine levels will be very below par.

 

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ICON showing those baby steps even at T120, 18z first,  12z at T126 second:

image.thumb.jpg.3a71484f29a3cce89a8f932a84710c7f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9b1ddd2be9274eaf2dbd505dbeca49aa.jpg

Follow the light blues (aqua if you like)....

Edit: GFS at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.1f0ac6e79b10d1b148aaee61615c1ca6.jpg

Makes  more of that separation of the two lows, this run could build a greenie!

Edited by Mike Poole

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.8df49e8524c55b2ac6436de427cbbd39.png

18Z, the lows keep a coming...

Keep them sliding all the want the cold is getting closer.👌

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening 🙂

So whilst its not the perfect set up the continued trending shows a moderate Greenland Anomaly & the PV settling over the Eastern quadrant of the NH was we look down in it -

That then followed by a warming in the stratosphere ....

Plenty of reasons to feel optimistic then currently..

You couldn't have summed up the situation better, Steve.   Pub run may have gone a bit off piste at T234, 

image.thumb.jpg.72777132da3a210d37642a5d7f859eea.jpg

...but imagine if it was a direct hit?? 

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You couldn't have summed up the situation better, Steve.   Pub run may have gone a bit off piste at T234, 

image.thumb.jpg.72777132da3a210d37642a5d7f859eea.jpg

...but imagine if it was a direct hit?? 

Yes the channel of cold could be a bit further East but a pretty good run...

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The gfs eye candy wasn’t long in appearing ..... no doubt back to an fi southerly by the 00z run! 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs eye candy wasn’t long in appearing ..... no doubt back to an fi southerly by the 00z run! 

I can't tell you how much i want this to come off, i know it almost certainly won't of course..

image.thumb.png.d58d415cec91d515a4f1fbb1fb0a13ae.png

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Almost in range of winter proper now. Outer edges of the EC ensemble clusters now giving a peek into December, and as expected the trend is towards a distinct westerly influence, with the possibility of a relatively mild airflow given the biggest cluster showing a Euro slug.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111712_360.thumb.png.211d129cfccdf4325cee21f0654313b9.png

As with any tool at such range these are subject to wild variation - but probably represents our best free long range tool. 2 of these clusters still show conditions broadly favourable for ongoing vortex stress.

For interest this was yesterday's run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111612_360.thumb.png.e52c54b2162c821498897c55d908f83b.png

Even more distinct +NAO signature across the clusters though with a good bit more polar air in the mix.

With the MJO returning to the IO and inevitable lag in any vortex disruption from the current warm air intrusions (and those forecast) I cant see a particularly cold or snowy start to the month away from favoured high ground locations. Patience is going to be required I think...either that or something distinctly unexpected.

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JFF but proper battleground snow event on the 18z cold air coming south and rain coming north . Up north will be liking this run. 4745A6A4-B0AE-4346-9162-B039D1E41FB8.thumb.png.99622ea1fcd67457db2f64ebdcfec231.png48DD76A1-F847-4FA2-83D9-23019F29427D.thumb.png.f15a2db65e4eea2003e1f66c0db6c0ff.png8FF5D143-D8A0-4B53-8D26-99EA5A3968A3.thumb.png.2d84af29678874132fcc7154bfbc2e73.png
 

And the strat warming staring under T300 now 👍00142442-C7BB-4223-B11D-54091C2FE9FE.thumb.png.adff33d218667b37a1b1b86238691784.png

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Before everyone dislikes that last post though, if mods will allow it, here are a couple of charts nicked off twitter....showing just how far off the models at times can be. (Admittedly 20 years old models....) 1995/96 (a pretty good winter overall) anomalies for the winter season

EJdfVowXsAII2Bl.thumb.png.d04c6c06f0ece66ab2ebf44f56c5bfcb.png

and next the ECM forecast for that season

EJdfD66WoAA-nqW.thumb.png.7ae0dfcf8ba67419f1423176c64a9de7.png

So - never lose faith! Look to the final third of the month....and beyond....

Edited by Catacol

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