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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Not a very good ECM mean tonight, a definite trend to milder temps next week!! But after just viewing the extended 14 day ensembles... We do see a gradual decline again beyond day 10...the mean perhaps back down to close to 0C..also a fair amount of spread, with quite a few members going below freezing!!! Long way off, but perhaps only a briefer milder interlude. 

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29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

you can see the cluster of low 850’s headed south past Iceland at day 10

I wonder if it will make it right the way down the UK and what size it will be - the London graph will reveal but i cannot see it being big.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if it will make it right the way down the UK and what size it will be - the London graph will reveal but i cannot see it being big.

It looks a reasonable size on the updated de bilt temps ..... an onshore flow into the Netherlands back end nov won’t generally pack much of a punch 

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39 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not a very good ECM mean tonight, a definite trend to milder temps next week!! But after just viewing the extended 14 day ensembles... We do see a gradual decline again beyond day 10...the mean perhaps back down to close to 0C..also a fair amount of spread, with quite a few members going below freezing!!! Long way off, but perhaps only a briefer milder interlude. 

It can go mild next week as long as we're plunged into the freezer during winter!  Seriously though, it's proving to be a very interesting run up to winter that's for sure!

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May be worth having a read in the strat thread! Lorenzo has posted something interesting, if I have read it right!!

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The Icelandic ec  clusters don’t show an arctic blast option .....

EDIT: actually, closer inspection reveals the op solution is the largest solution  (that bit didn’t require much inspection) but the extended cluster evolves in a way where the uk trough phases with the trough headed south but not quite in the wintry way we might have imagined ...

Edited by bluearmy

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What a strange strange chart for this time of year. 

 

Scrap that. 

Anytime of year 🤔🤔

 

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7b45ae5203fd09dd40d111c984f0de5b.png

 

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6 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

What a strange strange chart for this time of year. 

 

Scrap that. 

Anytime of year 🤔🤔

 

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7b45ae5203fd09dd40d111c984f0de5b.png

 

Would be happy from a coldie perspective to get there but probably not from a UK flooding one ....

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Would be happy from a coldie perspective to get there but probably not from a UK flooding one ....

Yes BA. 

Heading into December January with that profile I'd imagine a few snowblowers would be missing from the shelves. 

Would this pattern not present itself as a positive NAO signature on a monthly forecast? 🤔

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Full blown SSW on this run . 😮

74BC87CE-40EA-4D2B-8AD8-1099DA5962DD.png

EF815781-552A-4420-A9F2-F7B0A1E4B792.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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54 minutes ago, fromey said:

May be worth having a read in the strat thread! Lorenzo has posted something interesting, if I have read it right!!

Ive just posted something interesting in the strat thread as well!!

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5 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes BA. 

Heading into December January with that profile I'd imagine a few snowblowers would be missing from the shelves. 

Would this pattern not present itself as a positive NAO signature on a monthly forecast? 🤔

Only very weak positive, possibly neutral even a bit below, azores high way to the south, and higher pressure towards Iceland and Greenland with low pressure further south - preety much same we have had past few days which has been negative.

Edited by damianslaw

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What a chart that is,if it where to come off with an Alaskan ridge punching into the pole,southerly tracking lows and a part of the pv chunk poss head SE west side of Greenland ,we would have to deal with more flooding though i would suspect

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.9a43dc81f4d45514ce0605e7f355c66b.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.854e58c0b5644df1f5f213e8a337c462.png

Very cold uppers pushing south from Greenland,also we see our first red warming in the strat.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.c93c0914860aca91fc3a010644e5d26b.png

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Full blown SSW on this run . 😮

74BC87CE-40EA-4D2B-8AD8-1099DA5962DD.png

EF815781-552A-4420-A9F2-F7B0A1E4B792.png

It’s certainly a warming but nothing like an ssw .....

displacement reversal gets just north of Alaska .....

 quite a distance to the pole from there ...... 

Edited by bluearmy

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Only very weak positive, possibly neutral even a bit below, azores high way to the north, and higher pressure towards Iceland and Greenland with low pressure further south - preety much same we have had past few days which has been negative.

Thanks for the clarity.

Just seems a strange pattern high pressure trapped between lower pressure to the north and the south. 

I haven't seen any evidence yet of the PV wanting to locate to its usual place and the longer this goes on were bound to have the winning lottery ticket at some point. 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s certainly a warming but nothing like an ssw .....

displacement reversal gets just north of Alaska .....

 quite a distance to the pole from there ...... 

It's a start Blue🙂

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s certainly a warming but nothing like an ssw .....

Oh ok . How would you no when becomes a full ssw ? 
 

EDIT - cheers ba seen your post above 👍

Edited by ICE COLD

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3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Thanks for the clarity.

Just seems a strange pattern high pressure trapped between lower pressure to the north and the south. 

I haven't seen any evidence yet of the PV wanting to locate to its usual place and the longer this goes on were bound to have the winning lottery ticket at some point. 

The lower heights to the north are very weak and not uniform which is the interesting aspect allowing for wedge / ridge of heights to sit underneath to the south of greenland - over to Iceland and Scandi pushing the jet on a more southerly track.

Shallow stretched elongated low pressure systems, primed to slide and split in situ, with cold uppers to the north, a recipe for borderline rain/snow events, indeed what happened on Wednesday for some.

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34 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Full blown SSW on this run . 😮

74BC87CE-40EA-4D2B-8AD8-1099DA5962DD.png

EF815781-552A-4420-A9F2-F7B0A1E4B792.png

Yes, agreed, this one is possibly significant, I commented on an earlier run that the warming ran round half the earth, this one is stronger, GFS 18z T384 strat:

image.thumb.jpg.48df531cc1a2229652655cd92e1d0c7b.jpg

Most definitely one to watch, the positives from this sort of warming are continued steps to reinforce a -NAO.  The negatives are that it could meet with an anti-SSW coming the other way and wipe out the universe.   Only joking 😀

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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The mean 18z is showing some heights into Greenland and trough down into Scandi in the latter stages,that is a damn site better than the 12z.

gensnh-21-1-324.thumb.png.7c328bd83ddc4ec7c3cbea0aa8d034a3.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the area in the back oval marked red is where the reversal occurs as the circulation changes from the low to the high

the red band needs to be displaced to the pole in order for a tech ssw to be called 

this is in the case of a displacement ssw .... a split is slightly different but same principle re the reversal of flow over the pole 

C39489EC-1CCE-4AA8-9D74-1BBFE1E0A611.thumb.jpeg.c203484af2019269c108d3a8986f2939.jpeg

Appreciated BA cheers . 

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