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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    39 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Similar to this morning the Ext EPS does not make as much of ridging branching south into eastern Greenland which means the vortex extension across northern Canada and associated trough are a tad more influential, Thus the upper flow across the Atlantic does not appreciably diverge. albeit abating somewhat over the UK  This would portend changeable but warming up from current conditions Given that there are some significant differences this still has to be resolved

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.e583ea10243f25b10dbd922b0e94af19.png

     

     

    NOAA leaning towards the EPS

    814day_03.thumb.gif.19fe974ea88a003f5a4b39c0a4760040.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    You can see the door open to the build of a high around Greenland, compared to earlier runs at T120 on the ICON 18z, with 12z at T126 for comparison:

    image.thumb.jpg.c5962be070b068f3dff1efa99e12a224.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.19c061b6d461625715d42d51cd8775d4.jpg

    And lower heights east US give potential for more amplification . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is certainly trending milder in the mid / longer term as well as staying on the unsettled side.

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.66a975a79572e45a38f46f35bac8fb6c.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.89dc0eddb94033798762bb80e7ea69a8.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.289063f6bbb01803c14999bb59458599.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.ba24d16b43e39e5c537f59532a553dfc.gif

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    Just now, shaky said:

    And theres the gfs 18z climb down!!!

    If and it's a big if the picture plays out like the 18z than can we call it a first win for old ensembles over new FV3. 

    Maybe a downgrade more than an upgrade?

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    As a comparison, this was what yesterday’s GFS 18Z was illustrating for next Tuesday (9pm):
     

    EF68F694-B31A-4E26-9E96-44B96A750336.thumb.png.b3e0b32f21564641bc813b810f369fcd.png

    And this is what that 18Z model is showing today for next Tuesday night:

    C6E42A0A-D803-483F-B1A9-4EF84CD186E0.thumb.png.3cbd1f74fc23123a64b35f15444f95cb.png

    More of a slider-like behaviour to that Western UK Low drawing up more of a South-Easterly feed towards South-Western UK. Both that Atlantic Low and the little North-Eastern UK Low are separate (as mentioned by some). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 114 18z V 120 12z

    Headbang smiley - finally the GFS is on board 

    18Z FIRST

     

    Yes - Game set and match UKMO on this occasion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM 12z clusters, T240 and T360:

    image.thumb.jpg.7ba72f4ca4940a894c0286ef49c8bdc9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6a58044f6731c215ad8b9f988e427988.jpg

    The influence of the high to the NE, maybe N is clear on the T240.

    It's a partial view I know but clusters 1 3 and 4 at T360 look like they contain a significant number of runs with the undercut on a fairly strong jet to the south of us...

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    EC46 is as bad as it gets, not a million miles off a Bartlett.

    After week 3 ..... continuity from previous runs ....... most would rather ignore it when it shows zonality but week 3 onwards is about as +NAO as it gets ......

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    As this model consistently predicts the opposite of what we get, Feb, I think I'll take that as further evidence we're going to be in business very soon.  Already had snow to low levels in England, Nov 14th......

    Can’t remember what it showed for week 3 21 days ago or week 4 a month ago ...... what it won’t show is hill snow on a given day ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    As this model consistently predicts the opposite of what we get, Feb, I think I'll take that as further evidence we're going to be in business very soon.  Already had snow to low levels in England, Nov 14th......

    What happens in mid-Nov, in terms of UK weather, has zilch all influence on Winter's UK weather. On another note I'm hoping for a December 2015 repeat; cold rain, damp, flooding doesnt float my boat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Can’t remember what it showed for week 3 21 days ago or week 4 a month ago ...... what it won’t show is hill snow on a given day ! 

    But I can remember what it showed consistently about last winter, and we disagreed about it then.  And my point about snow was simply that winter is here...honestly I don't think any model that goes beyond day 10 has much of a clue at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Some absolutely outstanding ens tonight packed with potential. Take a look at this

    9_294_500mb.png

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