Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, knocker said:

I Keep seeing 'undercut' being mooted but I cannot see how it applies with this pattern to any great extent. There is a surface high rooted to the east which also begs the question, where is the cold air to tap into? But just to say once again, caution is the operative word when attempting to illicit detail from these charts

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-mslp-4942400.thumb.png.48661e3290d81bb17eb47503e3dcac48.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t850_anom_stream-4942400.thumb.png.66ed9a531cf0f69de002bb9b9acdd1b4.png

And I have to say Sidney is in no rush to store his nuts

sid.thumb.jpg.c87a96e5717a0077b8e325d0af37f285.jpg

true, i guess it depends though on how the blocking high to our east/northeast behaves into the future. i wouldnt have thought its going anywhere fast, and with the current noaa anomaly seems to be suggesting an intensifying of that block (flicking between the two) id have thought the undercutting theory is possible. not certain though of course.
ive always thought that such a block often delivers a cold spell, eventually, but anyway, time will tell.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 out

Just a one-off summary before disappearing once more..  I freely admit I have no interest whatsoever in attempting to fit patterns to preferred outcomes, despite my own preferences which much mor

Thanks mate 10000 over 15 years !! ? ?  

Posted Images

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Ukmo looks promising still!!got a feeling we could still see changes around the 120 hour mark!!

Yes, Shaky a slightly differently looking picture from the extended UKMO at 168t in comparison to the other main models at that range . Not really sure if these charts are the most reliable as they do not show the synoptic view to the East and North but give some in -sight to the low pressure behaviour expected in the vicinity of the British Isles. The view from the team over here is for temps to return only slowly back to Mid- Nov values next week  over the UK  but with the cold still in evidence to the North. Read what you may in that but think a return to full on mild in NW Europe is not a done deal yet.

PS . Latest snow pictures from over here will now be shown on the ALL THINGS AUSTRIA THREAD .

C

ukm2.2019112100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Edited by carinthian
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a very encouraging effort from the GFS 00Z operational run; but, hey ho, rain at 12C is arguably  better (less vile?) than rain at 5C...??

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Though, unfortunately, rain at 5C looks rather more likely...And, there's still no sign of any meaningful clustering (in terms of temperature, at least) by Day 16?:unsure2:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Ergo, the hunt for real cold goes on. And on...?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes, Shaky a slightly differently looking picture from the extended UKMO at 168t in comparison to the other main models at that range . Not really sure if these charts are the most reliable as they do not show the synoptic view to the East and North but give some in -sight to the low pressure behaviour expected in the vicinity of the British Isles. The view from the team over here is for temps to return only slowly back to Mid- Nov values next week  over the UK  but with the cold still in evidence to the North. Read what you may in that but think a return to full on mild in NW Europe is not a done deal yet.

PS . Latest snow pictures from over here will now be shown on the ALL THINGS AUSTRIA THREAD .

C

ukm2.2019112100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Yup and by the way a huge shift towards the ukmo on the latest 06z icon!!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big change on the 06 hrs ICON by day 5.

It keeps the upstream low and the one to the ne separate with no phasing . 

And the 06 hrs GFS looks better also with better heights between the lows going to slide better hopefully not phase.??

Edited by booferking
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Subtle changes on the 06z meaning a direct hit in a weeks time for the worse case scenario for rain, the 0z pushed the worse into the North Sea:

gfs-2-168.thumb.png.c5318370a4d2b1e80b47c65d50423b50.pnggfs-1-168.thumb.png.91a19ddcae2dc6afcc39ad12091320b2.png

Milder air arriving earlier as well.

The bigger picture, as others have pointed out, is that the flow from the changes have allowed steerage of the upper cold core vortex further SE from the Canadian region, so less travel if we can correct the flow more UK bound:

1248895374_gfsnh-0-180(2).thumb.png.0eb644a6d792ce10274d5eb0cea5b0ff.pnganim_voh9.gif

Every little bit helps...

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Possible height-rises in the Griceland area??

 

Seems to be gaining traction this, although the 6z probably too soon with the evolution, i keep seeing Greenland height rises being mentioned by the forecasters in the USA.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 6z operational there's some increasingly mild weather developing next week with maxima into the low double digits celsius range but with all the rain and wind it probably wouldn't feel particularly mild...further flooding is a concern next week!:help:

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

So the chase for the first snowflake to fall for this season is already over for some of us in South Wales as well as parts of Ireland & down into the Westcountry in mid-November lol, even on the coast it was 2-3C with some sleetiness, not as good as snow I know but it's not bad going considering the sea temperatures are still around 12-13C 

Through next week the lows take a different track though and a result winds begin to turn SW'ly bringing temperatures back up to normal or possibly a tad above by the end of the week but unfortunately still no sign of settled weather returning for the foreseeable future ?

image.jpeg

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

The current snowy pattern is due to an underlying base state that is still quite negative in terms of AAM and a tropical state which is more progressive in terms of the expansion of momentum.

The combination of a MJO Phase 6-7-8 progression and the underlying negative momentum anomalies have introduced Scandi blocking and potentially -NAO (+ 10 days) responses to the brief tropical momentum progression.

D36D0044-124E-479C-9C4E-DBA1F7D76C48.thumb.png.aae17e41cef7c11d416f2faa470c719e.png

You can see the meridional pattern induced by the negative momentum anomalies in the medium term by the polarised difference between the block and the trough. 
 

Anyway, today I have also released my seasonal winter outlook for the UK and Europe here ? 

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/

Playing with ideas presented in the short-medium term applied to the seasonal forecast, as well as looking at stratospheric and other factors in terms of applying it to the likes of January and February.

 

 

 

 

 

Your forecast is a good read Snowy Hibbo. Southern Englanders will be very happy if that comes close to vetifying ❄️??

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

HGT 500 SLP

                   14-11                                                              7-11

h500slp.thumb.png.edf21dade4fbfe38e551e42fb667eb09.png172263_h500slp(1).png.4dffe3247d36ee8ea03cecb7c113dba1.thumb.png.3a35f1a7f81e4e844c8350c3acdca0a5.png

Not too bad an effort - just the lack of ppn

 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

As people are too well aware today is a totally miserable and cold day for many, particularly if you under the incessant rain

14.thumb.gif.eba2ce49f25dd0ba9485ba0c3b881f38.gif

And this area will continue to pivot through the rest of the afternoon and tonight but it will start to fragment by the latter part of the evening. But, in the now quite brisk north easterly wind, frequent heavy showers will ingress north easterly coastal regions and then in the early hours. courtesy of a wave developing on the front to the south east more persistent and heavy rain will track into the south east from around 0300. Quite a marked ground temp contrast so frost limited to the north by morning

PPVA89.thumb.gif.303baf60c7d9f362e2083e80de3ec5e2.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.c1e63a50329d425bdee7e6e2594458e9.gifsfctemp_d02_24.thumb.png.4ceff8fa216a57ee54700e2dfe3fe111.png

meanreflec_d02_10.thumb.png.d7ce2812fe9cd7bce9173d6cf2974fa9.pngmeanreflec_d02_13.thumb.png.4149c5a922ed571069da7cb15cd95042.pngmeanreflec_d02_17.thumb.png.21d2a5e62cc2f157a6315fcd8ea5cf1d.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.4fbd9804eb0d9367ae63f90f98181200.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.b393ef0820471fd32bd9e3b5582ff6a0.pngsfcgust_d02_21.thumb.png.b2a5439ea6e913c1301a3723099fa477.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...