Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

unfortunately ensembles promised much but ended badly,

 

True enough, even with a good slider scenario next week things still don’t work out, back to the drawing board for now!! Can the perfect slider go on to change FI that much now, not so sure!!  
What we need is a big influx of WAA into Greenland behind any possible slider to bring us a cold Northerly , without that nothing cold heading our way. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

Aaahh - some better news though - definitely a cold clustering here.

[Jordan S]

Gem's output is a very wet one this evening for more southern portions in particular out to just day 10.. could change ofcourse.. But I think that's where our attention should be atm. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 300mb wind and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK surface chart

The key issue today is the broad area of heavy rain associated with the front that is currently aligned central Wales > Suffolk. This will pivot through the day to be roughly Humber > Devon by 1800 to bring persistent rain to the areas underneath and snow down to quite low levels south Wales and the west Midlands, Further north after a frosty start a pretty sunny day although showers along eastern coastal regions

The area of rain will continue to pivot to some extent overnight with frequent showers along north east coastal regions in the north easterly wind which also means the dreaded Pembroke Dangler comes into play in the south west

Cloud and patchy rain continuing in the south east on Friday but becoming heavy again through the afternoon as a wave develops on the trailing front. Showers still in the north east and the south west with north westerly regions drier and sunnier

Cloud and patchy rain will continue to be a problem in the south east over Friday night and through Saturday and by dusk another waving front will bring rain to N. Ireland and NW Scotland.

By Sunday there is another quite intense extra tropical cyclone near the tip of Greenland that promotes further downstream ridging resulting in the UK being in a very slack gradient with stalled and bits and pieces of fronts bringing some patchy rain to northern and eastern areas with snow on the high ground on a rather chilly day

The low tracks east across the Atlantic on Monday but the eastbound energy hits the buffers of the block in the east resulting in th wave that has developed in Biscay tracking north east into the North Sea. Ergo not a bad day, albeit quite cold, in western and northern regions after a frosty start but some cloud and patchy rain may effect the south east and eastern regions

 

[Ali1977]

The Op once again is a mild run after day 7, it’s hard to believe it when you look at day 6 ENS charts, a snapshot of 8 Perbs here look full of potential but rapidly fail to produce!! 

[tinybill]

looking at the gfs fronm now to la la land it should  have  a   xxx behind it  seems to be geting  more wetter with each run being its so wet and with no dry set coming , down the line there could be problems in more parts of the country with flooding

[knocker]

According to the gfs next week, after not a bad but cold day on Tuesday, the trough dominates the eastern Atlantic Thursday/Friday but note another trough has developed in the baroclinic zone along the eastern seaboard and is tracking north east, Best left here I feel as the detail here is far from a done deal

Edited November 14, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ext GEFS this morning continues the interaction between the vortex lobe and the amplifying European high pressure which increases the ridging into eastern Greenland, resulting in the upper flow south of the trough diverging much further west and the east Atlantic trough slipping south. All of which leaves a slack gradient over the UK and, one would like to think, a drier and warmer regime

[Jordan S]

Gem output for today heavy rain for much of central England and Wales also east anglia very slow moving giving large rainfall totals quite widely and some snow is likely for higher ground of Wales and west Midlands at first but likely falling to lower levels later. An area of heavy rain also developing around southern parts of Northern England/ North Midlands where it really isn't needed. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

The ecm next week

[shaky]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The Op once again is a mild run after day 7, it’s hard to believe it when you look at day 6 ENS charts, a snapshot of 8 Perbs here look full of potential but rapidly fail to produce!! 

Ukmo looks promising still!!got a feeling we could still see changes around the 120 hour mark!!

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo looks promising still!!got a feeling we could still see changes around the 120 hour mark!!

Whilst a fairly complex set up, I don’t see any any big changes to the expected evolution pre day 6/7 making much difference to nw europe

note several runs on the gfs op where 60/70N zonal flow at the bottom of the strat and into the trop becomes positive side of average rather than anomalously low as has been the case thus far as week 2 progresses ...... flow still easing notably higher up. 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst a fairly complex set up, I don’t see any any big changes to the expected evolution pre day 6/7 making much difference to nw europe

note several runs on the gfs op where 60/70N zonal flow at the bottom of the strat and into the trop becomes positive side of average rather than anomalously low as has been the case thus far as week 2 progresses ...... flow still easing notably higher up. 

Sceuro high to usher in December Blue?

I'm hoping there is enough residual energy in the southern arm to prop up any developing euro heights day 10 onwards...

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sceuro high to usher in December Blue?

I'm hoping there is enough residual energy in the southern arm to prop up any developing euro heights day 10 onwards...

The jet is digging quite well south on day 10of the ECM, and heights into Greenland . It’ll be Interesting to see if the de bilt ens show a drop off in temps into the end of week 2, and if the mean still shows positive anomaly’s over Greeny at day 10. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

The ext EPS is not a carbon copy of the gefs by any means so still a work in progress for this time scale. In particular it does nor develop the ridge into eastern Greenland to the same effect and thus the dynamics of the Atlantic trough are different as well

[Mair Snaw]

Hi everybody. Love this thread and look in often and trying hard to learn from all that's posted in here.. I see a lot of posts saying na this pattern isn't any good or we will get nothing from this set up.. all I will say is that in the last 48 hours we have had floods, sunshine, heavy frost and now Snaw none of it modelled apart from frost. So please keep up the good work in here and for you Snaw addicts here are some pictures of my view this morning enjoy.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, knocker said:

NOAA singing from the same hymn sheet

Id have though these charts should give hope to those wanting cold. firstly they completely rule out some GFS bartlett style mild high pressure fi prediction, but secondly that atlantic energy could easily, eventually, undercut the very strong block and whilst intitially temps might be on the mild side of average, an undercutting low could well set up ever increasingly colder easterlies.
Id have thought there a lot for "coldies" to be justifiably optimistic for in the long run.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Id have though these charts should give hope to those wanting cold. firstly they completely rule out some GFS bartlett style mild high pressure fi prediction, but secondly that atlantic energy could easily, eventually, undercut the very strong block and whilst intitially temps might be on the mild side of average, an undercutting low could well set up ever increasingly colder easterlies.
Id have thought there a lot for "coldies" to be justifiably optimistic for in the long run.

I Keep seeing 'undercut' being mooted but I cannot see how it applies with this pattern to any great extent. There is a surface high rooted to the east which also begs the question, where is the cold air to tap into? But just to say once again, caution is the operative word when attempting to illicit detail from these charts

And I have to say Sidney is in no rush to store his nuts

Edited November 14, 2019 by knocker

[SLEETY]

17 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Hi everybody. Love this thread and look in often and trying hard to learn from all that's posted in here.. I see a lot of posts saying na this pattern isn't any good or we will get nothing from this set up.. all I will say is that in the last 48 hours we have had floods, sunshine, heavy frost and now Snaw none of it modelled apart from frost. So please keep up the good work in here and for you Snaw addicts here are some pictures of my view this morning enjoy.

Be nice if you could actually say where you live! 

Forget looking East!

Think eventually we might be looking north and a Greenland High!

And some very cold uppers in that region too.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I Keep seeing 'undercut' being mooted but I cannot see how it applies with this pattern to any great extent. There is a surface high rooted to the east which also begs the question, where is the cold air to tap into? But just to say once again, caution is the operative word when attempting to illicit detail from these charts

And I have to say Sidney is in no rush to sore his nuts

As mused before, removing the Sceuro ridge from its moorings is the secret - it wouldn’t take the continent to become particularly cold for us to be able to receive potential snowfall via sliders/divers 

but I guess that removal could easily see the ridge drift way east and the Atlantic jet make further inroads to our nw as a consequence 

[Mair Snaw]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Be nice if you could actually say where you live! 

Forget looking East!

Think eventually we might be looking north and a Greenland High!

And some very cold uppers in that region too.

says it in my location...

[Jordan S]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As mused before, removing the Sceuro ridge from its moorings is the secret - it wouldn’t take the continent to become particularly cold for us to be able to receive potential snowfall via sliders/divers 

but I guess that removal could easily see the ridge drift way east and the Atlantic jet make further inroads to our nw as a consequence 

The latter probably most likely atm

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As mused before, removing the Sceuro ridge from its moorings is the secret - it wouldn’t take the continent to become particularly cold for us to be able to receive potential snowfall via sliders/divers 

but I guess that removal could easily see the ridge drift way east and the Atlantic jet make further inroads to our nw as a consequence 

The other way of sneaking colder air is from the north, as has happened currently, but the proposed evolution cuts that route off

[Frosty.]

Well looking at the GEFS 0z there is some very wintry potential towards the end of the month.. fingers crossed it's on to something!!!!

[Frosty_wsm]

30 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

says it in my location...

Just a heads up but for people like myself browsing this forum on a phone, the mobile layout doesn't display any location info below your profile pic.