Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

More elongation to the low on UKMO so it appears as though it's 'sliding' under the block to the north. GFS is more 'ball shaped' and of course much more likely to barrel through. 

Yes best sticking to the reliable timeframe roughly 144 hrs, the trajectory and shape of recent low pressure systems has been on a NW-SE path and much shallower stretched affairs.. so every reason why UKMO might be right, rather than the closed large low pressure system being shown by GFS which has a propensity to blow such features up. ECM is showing a different position/track in the longer term, but I'm not sure on this, a feature sat to our south. Its all very messy, and unfortunately it looks like remaining very wet indeed, with slow moving frontal features, slack pressure gradients so no wind to shift the rain on.. 

Lots more cold November rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing's for certain: the 'ordinary' models are starting to agree with the seasonals, and are pointing toward a developing +NAO/Eurotrash HP scenario...:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of support for a Northerly on the GEFS suite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Not just cold rain lots of reports in low land mainland Ireland snow today with the same kind of uppers...

FB_IMG_1573663117210.jpgIMG_20191113_170951.thumb.jpg.e0ec51e4f5845a34450ecd8f153dc0f5.jpg

Wasn't aware of that, preety good going for Ireland given its more westerly position, under what are not very cold uppers.. proof you don't need cold uppers to deliver snow at this time of year. Must be the evaporative cooling effect, and the fact there is a slack airstream. Where was the picture taken ? height above sea level.

Indeed last Saturday saw similar conditions in parts of lowland Wales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

One thing's for certain: the 'ordinary' models are starting to agree with the seasonals, and are pointing toward a developing +NAO/Eurotrash HP scenario...:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Isn't that the 3rd GFS run on the trot to show a decent deepest FI? but as we all know, settled weather downgrades as it gets closer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Isn't that the 3rd GFS run on the trot to show a decent deepest FI? but as we all know, settled weather downgrades as it gets closer

That is just about the worst chart i have ever seen - nearest -  Jan - Feb 1989

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lots of support for a Northerly on the GEFS suite.

Agreed, a Greeny high is quite well supported by day 11 on the ENS then all sorts of options. Trends and all that!! 
Here are 2 cherry picked FIs - not bad I suppose 😳

F200CD4D-52CE-4504-A6AD-4DD4E23100CF.png

38AACC2D-DC39-41B4-B5D5-D64F43343F27.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is just about the worst chart i have ever seen - nearest -  Jan - Feb 1989

Yes, i touched on the euro high last night and im still thinking thats how November will end...

Hopefully morphing into a sceuro high as time ticks on..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is just about the worst chart i have ever seen - nearest -  Jan - Feb 1989

Don't normally comment on charts way out in future, but its not a bad chart in the essence it would bring a good drying out to places that need it. Also at the surface it would be quite cold in the south at least and with light winds any frost and fog would be slow to clear. Looking at other features, there is a deep scandi trough to the NE about to pull down very cold uppers into scandi, and also some warm air advection through east atlantic towards Greenland, no sign of azores high - not sure whether it would happen, but that cold to the NE could come in the back door through its eastern flank and inflate the high northwards through the UK, with consequent atlantic trough undercutting.. all conjecture, but it seems a fluid pattern rather than a holding one..

Conversely the cold air might not make it down the eastern flank, but instead the atlantic trough allows some form of height push towards southern scandi at least..

Or as you say it could just all hold in situ and a SW airstream strikes through mid atlantic and we sit underneath the high..

Anyhow, not worth speculating really..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

T+126 hrs no respite for the flooding issues .

Maybe something wintry from this too

And yes more rain.

 All very unstable going forward 

I'm going day by day and no more than T+126 hrs. And that's pushing it.

Currently my car has a frozen windscreen as the sun has gone down 

Expecting a bit of wintry mix throughout the night as showers move east.

All in all . Chins up .best November chart watching in years for me.

19111818_1312.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting UKMO.

The models seem to be making a real drama over the interaction between the upstream low and the Euro troughing .

The more elongated the upstream low the better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This evening the ext GEFS indicates confirmation of the realignment of the strongly amplifying Eurio ridge into eastern Greenland with the vortex lobe dominating the central Arctic  With the secondary lobe northern Canada and associated trough aligned south east under the ridge the strong westerly upper flow is forced south across the Atlantic before diverting north in the vicinity of the UK. This would portend systems tracking south of the UK before stalling against the block but once again this will be a tricky surface analysis vis detail. Temps around average maybe shading above

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.f546120ed8ed2d0598f628d543dd6793.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.8fa18e65c2e755e79d07f723d1e200b6.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.271a35cc354cb47464f39e45185a1aec.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

T+126 hrs no respite for the flooding issues .

Maybe something wintry from this too

And yes more rain.

 All very unstable going forward 

I'm going day by day and no more than T+126 hrs. And that's pushing it.

Currently my car has a frozen windscreen as the sun has gone down 

Expecting a bit of wintry mix throughout the night as showers move east.

All in all . Chins up .best November chart watching in years for me.

19111818_1312.gif

Does anyone have an idea how all the rain will work out for us? To me it seems all that water will evaporate taking energy (warmth) from the ground and thus make it easier for real cold and snow later.(when I want to quickly cool my drink I wrap wet tissue or cloth around the bottle and put it in the freezer, within 5-10 minutes a bottle of wine can be quite acceptable) 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

This evening the ext GEFS indicates confirmation of the realignment of the strongly amplifying Eurio ridge into eastern Greenland with the vortex lobe dominating the central Arctic  With the secondary lobe northern Canada and associated trough aligned south east under the ridge the strong westerly upper flow is forced south across the Atlantic before diverting north in the vicinity of the UK. This would portend systems tracking south of the UK before stalling against the block but once again this will be a tricky surface analysis vis detail. Temps around average maybe shading above

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.f546120ed8ed2d0598f628d543dd6793.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.8fa18e65c2e755e79d07f723d1e200b6.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.271a35cc354cb47464f39e45185a1aec.png

Tricky detail - but another reference to sustained heavy rain seems apt. November 2019 looks likely to be added to the growing list of significantly wet months in the modern UK record. The fact that parts of Scotland are currently sunnier than average and drier than average shows the significant step to the south in the jet right now. The block to the east makes it worse. Not good for flooding... ☹️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UKMO is currently the best of the big 3 at day 6 in terms of a chance of something wintry as the upstream low heads in .

Both the ECM and GFS have unfavourable phasing .

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much support for anything really, according to the GEFS 12Z; indications for neither major mildness nor a screaming northerly...?🤔

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is just about the worst chart i have ever seen - nearest -  Jan - Feb 1989

depends on location, the chart Ed posted for here, I much rather have that, than what I have had for last 3 weeks, and for the next week, limited dry spells, not a flake of snow

that chart looks dry, so did the 18Z, 00Z and 06Z,

members oop norf though, would agree an unwanted chart for the snow season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm has the upper trough that has previously slipped into western Atlantic tracking slowly east as the energy hits the non moving eastern block Thus, after a not too bad two or three days. by recent standards anyway, becoming windy and unsettled again albeit perhaps not as cold

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4164800.thumb.png.53ba30f764c9e9082ec8bddac9ed2135.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4251200.thumb.png.65152d072f70b00610e683654e7806fe.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4251200.thumb.png.045037b7255b26bd954f22c1f743c8a5.png

index.thumb.png.945e787624b4824b8ce914338858f361.png168.thumb.png.a0dbefd54c2a14ab47b0a4da74c7a171.png186.thumb.png.8ce89c4ae8406cf69e7f1578d3a2fb6e.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

depends on location, the chart Ed posted for here, I much rather have that, than what I have had for last 3 weeks, and for the next week, limited dry spells, not a flake of snow

that chart looks dry, so did the 18Z, 00Z and 06Z,

members oop norf though, would agree an unwanted chart for the snow season

I don't care about rain and 5c, i just worry about what the best chart is going forward for snow, whether it takes a week, a month or until February to get there, that where i differ, Sun and warmth never excites me at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Normally we bemoan the Azores high limpet , this time the Russian slug high seems intent on just sitting there at a poor orientation.

Quite frustrating to see the purple blob of doom not over Greenland but yet somehow the UK is stuck with some underwhelming weather and more horrid rain .

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO is currently the best of the big 3 at day 6 in terms of a chance of something wintry as the upstream low heads in .

Both the ECM and GFS have unfavourable phasing .

 

 

EC as well, perhaps just a sign of a bit more settled, like last few GFS runs, mainly on GFS after 240, so not getting hopes up one bit

ECM1-240.GIF?13-0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC as well, perhaps just a sign of a bit more settled, like last few GFS runs, mainly on GFS after 240, so not getting hopes up one bit

ECM1-240.GIF?13-0

A sign of WAA up the Western side of Greenland as advertised on some GEFS members.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...