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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 out

Just a one-off summary before disappearing once more..  I freely admit I have no interest whatsoever in attempting to fit patterns to preferred outcomes, despite my own preferences which much mor

Thanks mate 10000 over 15 years !! ? ?  

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Pretty incredible for mid November knocker,could be a harsh long winter over there

I think I saw a Ryan Maue quote as a hundred year event

The sounding is for Charleston South Carolina

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-pres_2pvu-3624800.thumb.png.aa22d897494241b5e7aa472490ed963b.pngKCHS.skewt.20191113_12.thumb.gif.446616b4d169006a0090d19338dd31bf.gif

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27 minutes ago, swfc said:

Pretty incredible for mid November knocker,could be a harsh long winter over there

....though not all US forecasters would agree. There are calls in some areas for a mild east coast December. As ever - the picture as we approach winter proper is complex and all options remain on the table....

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Day 8 and into the second half of Nov. Huge Siberian High, heights over Greenland but still nothing decent over us. I wonder if FI will spring a surprise from the north around day 11!!! This could still get interesting later this month if you take day 8s chart as gospel!! 

 

6094EAD9-5E67-4E93-9584-545497852A1C.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977
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There’s nothing cold enough to tap into anywhere near us anyway, the Siberian high stops any attempt of any cold to come east.

Must be said it’s a dire chart for already flooded areas, with this same system pivoting on or around the uk for 3+ days

A3C1BC5D-772F-4DDC-A55A-18B1D7EA128E.png

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There’s nothing cold enough to tap into anywhere near us anyway, the Siberian high stops any attempt of any cold to come east.

Must be said it’s a dire chart for already flooded areas, with this same system pivoting on or around the uk for 3+ days

A3C1BC5D-772F-4DDC-A55A-18B1D7EA128E.png

That low is hanging around like a bad smell, spoiling any chances!! 

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There’s nothing cold enough to tap into anywhere near us anyway, the Siberian high stops any attempt of any cold to come east.

Must be said it’s a dire chart for already flooded areas, with this same system pivoting on or around the uk for 3+ days

A3C1BC5D-772F-4DDC-A55A-18B1D7EA128E.png

Yes pretty pony in our area tbh.pretty insipid looking charts tbh

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About as seasonal as It gets really this run - guess we can't complain. I always think November is the dullest month for our weather. You're still not quite adapted to the very short days, the weather isn't cold enough (for most) for any meaningful snow and it's typically considerably wet and windy with extensive fog. 

Unless of course you like those things. 

image.thumb.png.0fee232cc1fd2353a2327a36b59d5cd8.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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This gfs  run  is complete junk,it  is so different than the 06 run in its later stages,you can see why people say fl really is a waste of time.

Unsettled sums it up in the reliable time frame,whatever timescale that is,hard to see on this messed up run..

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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All the commentary on GFS yet just 1 above on UKMO

Lovely upgrade there with a potential wintry event day 7 ....

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Would it not just end up like the GFS, a big blob of LP stuck over the U.K?. if we couldn’t see beyond 144 on other charts I’d agree it had potential but those models going beyond 144 say no!! 
The ENS mean at 144 looks ok though 

6AEC9EA6-69C7-42D4-AC98-6BD271DC24C2.png
 

And by 156 a fair bit of support for these 2 scenarios

9104CC83-937E-4119-B881-23A5919FE995.png

01C4B3AF-5966-467B-9842-F0F52CA0A4BF.png

Edited by Ali1977
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Would it not just end up like the GFS, a big blob of LP stuck over the U.K?. if we couldn’t see beyond 144 on other charts I’d agree it had potential but those models going beyond 144 say no!! 
The ENS mean at 144 looks ok though 

6AEC9EA6-69C7-42D4-AC98-6BD271DC24C2.png

More elongation to the low on UKMO so it appears as though it's 'sliding' under the block to the north. GFS is more 'ball shaped' and of course much more likely to barrel through. 

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9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Would it not just end up like the GFS, a big blob of LP stuck over the U.K?. if we couldn’t see beyond 144 on other charts I’d agree it had potential but those models going beyond 144 say no!! 
The ENS mean at 144 looks ok though 

6AEC9EA6-69C7-42D4-AC98-6BD271DC24C2.png

The wedge of height circled towards Greenland will help separate the lows i would have thought plus that low is sliding and more elongated.

UN144-21 (3).gif

Edited by booferking
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43 minutes ago, WXHerts said:

UKMO good at d6 - would’ve been nice to see beyond. Need to see more of that circled amplification round the states which just isn’t there yet on other models..subtle changes such as that make all the difference. 

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I agree here , we need to monitor shorter range charts with UKMO and GFS and spot slight changes like this

And move forward to the end of november with a continued pattern/ set up like this, and then we can start focusing on getting real cold in

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