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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Agree, it has been forecast for quite some time a train of HP cells moving west to east from the Pacific, inbound the Euro region, maintaining that Euro wave of heights that ebb and flow but disengages any cold air from the colder sources. Usual caveats but even late in the GFS run we see that pattern:

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We can stall that flow if the Pacific amplifies, thus allowing some wedges of heights to pop to higher latitudes, but otherwise that train of HP cells maintain the status quo of Euro height anomalies. Not a good place to be, west of the station, with the stalling trough over the UK for the short-medium term.

Thankfully only November and there are likely other drivers that will maybe address this pattern, even the dreaded tPV taking hold may be better for the UK than this disappointing synoptic.

I just wish it won't take until the end of January like some informative sources suggest after SSW possibly. Overnight ECM weeklies remain very firm on this anomaly holding firm. It is staggering how long it lasts, as we either have option 1. Azores high migrating to Mediterranean and across to central Europe or 2. High pressure axis from Turkey/Balkan/Eastern Europe/Central Europe. This omnipresent anomaly has been standard fare since April 2013! with the exception of odd month, statistically speaking 90% euro high, 10% euro through. Most majority of any historical cold spells happen when we have low heights in that region not blocking high. It will take some switch for it to change, I am not saying we can not have 1 month of this perfect synoptic, because it happens from time to time, example Feb18, May19 - deep Euro through and a very very deep negative -NAO, no shortwave drama   

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EC clusters this morning - While those reds persist to the NE, there's always a chance of a colder scenario developing, this at D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111200_288.

but what coldies definitely do not want are yellows back over Europe on cluster 3 by D15 - ridging into C Europe - no chance for cold if that happens

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111200_360.

One crumb of comfort - the largest cluster goes a bit easier on the SW trough by the D10-D15 period, improving chances of a dry-up - other clusters would continue the rainfest.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 hours ago, IDO said:

You could not get a worse D12 chart if we sat down and plotted the GFS 06z ourselves:

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Taking into account what comes before we can suggest that the current setup is simply too far gone to be useful for cold or dry weather for the UK. An awful setup with no potential for the foreseeable. The GFS seems to now have settled on this option, the worst case scenario!

Hardly the end of the world two days earlier though IDO and always looks worse in Euro  image format

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Some post in here are actually laughable tbh, it’s the models which chop and change sooo often, after reading a few it sounds like the next few weeks are set in stone. A few days ago everything was looking great for potential colder weather in the not to distant future now it’s all gone but will probably all be back again tomorrow. Just relax and don’t take everything as gospel. Even predicting the next few days is hard enough

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Some post in here are actually laughable tbh, it’s the models which chop and change sooo often, after reading a few it sounds like the next few weeks are set in stone. A few days ago everything was looking great for potential colder weather in the not to distant future now it’s all gone but will probably all be back again tomorrow. Just relax and don’t take everything as gospel. Even predicting the next few days is hard enough

Not really true. The Siberian high is driving our weather and is fairly reliable for models to predict, lows and troughing coming in from the west and stalling over us have been the theme recently and it looks like continuing for the foreseeable, heights in that region are notoriously hard to budge.

 

I don’t see any laughable posts myself. It’s realistic at this point to suggest another few weeks will pass before any significant change of pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean there's no real sign of anything mild as such in terms of the usual sw'ly zephyrs, indeed temperatures continue generally below average / rather cold, especially further north. There's strong support for continued height rises (high pressure) to the NE / E and lower heights (low pressure) to the W / SW and for the uk this means predominantly unsettled but with some fine spells bringing overnight frosts...these are only the broad brush strokes.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
54 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Some post in here are actually laughable tbh, it’s the models which chop and change sooo often, after reading a few it sounds like the next few weeks are set in stone. A few days ago everything was looking great for potential colder weather in the not to distant future now it’s all gone but will probably all be back again tomorrow. Just relax and don’t take everything as gospel. Even predicting the next few days is hard enough

Relax? This forum? No chance!!!
This forum buzzes off the chase and seeing awesome coldie charts - we have the likes of Knockers great posts to keep us coldies grounded but apart from that - everyone should keep up the good work on here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would assume that at some point the scandi ridge will break from its mid lat moorings and allow CAA to come around from the ene ...... the overall mean anomolys look pretty good for a cold and possibly wintry beginning of the winter months ..... and yet the seasonal updates and ec46 look anything but .....

The only way I see that happening at the moment is for a Pacific ridge to stall the low-latitude train of HP cells. That would stop the westerly momentum of lower heights and forces would hopefully favour the Siberian block to ease west. The ECM T324 mean (as above) pretty much shows the 0z GFS with a strong westerly flow curtailing near the UK as the block to our east does its job. We saw with the GFS that is not helpful to a cold UK and I suggest the ECM is ditto, so rain and average temps. The models show the current setup as low probability for UK cold so we do need a sea-change. It does not look likely within the next 10-days.

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
20 minutes ago, fromey said:

Some words from across the pond! 
I don’t know what sort of reputation they have.

 

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They're are certainly hinting at some form of blocking appearing over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia in the longer term. However, from following these sorts of statements that the long range models show, most of the time, these never benefit the UK.

What appears noticeable over the last few days is the increase in rainfall episodes across areas of the UK that have already had enough rain this season.

GFS 6z +60h

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This is just an example of another stalled Low bringing in moisture on Easterly and North Easterly winds from the North Sea, right into areas that do not need it! 

Cold aside, flooding may become the main issue over the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

12zgfs slightly more amplified towards Greenland at 138 hrs .probably nothing but it's there 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
8 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

From across the pond...one foot of snow dumped on Niagra..in one hour..First of the season.

From my brother in law who said it's right on time.

Just had these sent in from Ottawa where I have distant relatives I'm definitely paying a visit in the next year or 2! Maybe I should do a house swap!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Yet again the only place south of Greenland to have a area of low pressure sat over it 192 on GFS ???yep you guessed it!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The extremely stubborn high pressure anomaly over Russia/Eastern Europe will ensure we can't get cold unless we get some serious undercut and manage to to have it retrograde NW or can significantly lower heights over time.

 

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Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Dronfield (South Sheffield)
  • Location: Dronfield (South Sheffield)

The charts certainly aren't your typical zonal affair and could easily deliver something wintry mid term but we are definitely stuck in a rut with relentless low pressure systems spinning around the UK. Lots more rain to come.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone for east/north easterly winds bringing in 5-10c uppers in mid November?

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erm... why not? theres been a lot of wwa into central/eastern europe recently , that could easily come our way, not that it would be very warm by then.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, fromey said:

Some words from across the pond! 
I don’t know what sort of reputation they have.

 

Highly regarded in the art of long range forecaseting.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Yep, the Russian High is rarely a 'friend', usually a foe, in Winter as it is far enough East to just act as a staller of LPs, placing them over Blighty. The wet November continues. No surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yet again the only place south of Greenland to have a major area of low pressure sat over it 192 on GFS ???yep you guessed it!!!

Complicated looking by day 3, and I’d be surprised if FI is much beyond that - I’d also be surprised if we don’t have some good beasts showing in the ENS by day 10!! 
 

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