Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Jordan S]

39 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Indeed the UK is almost developing it's own little cold pool.

Extraordinary stuff for so early in the season!

And swimming pool by the looks of it if the latest GFS comes to fruition. 

A rather messy picture tomorrow afternoon but more rain pushing through areas effected by flooding recently although bringing just a few mm's. 

Hirlam.. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Possibly more heavy rain it's backed to an extent by the other models although some keep that off shore. Gfs midday run certainly is a very wet update particularly for Western and southwestern areas. 

GFS accumulated rainfall.. 

Day 5..

 

Day 10..

 

Day 16..

 

Although half of this is unreliable time frame with most of the accumulated rainfall at day 16 from day 10 onwards but that really would close November off as a very wet month indeed.. We shall see. 

Yes i certainly think you are going to be seeing news reports of flooding again and again, the only thing that could stop that right now would be either a proper cold spell, because even if snow totals were high, if it were frozen then it would give the ground further down time to drain, or High pressure, even the traditional zonal ridge-trough-ridge-trough SW-W winds will still cause more flooding if it follows the inevitable trough that will be stuck on top of us in about 8-10 days time where as normally the 12 or 16 hours in between deluges give it time to dry out.

[Jordan S]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i certainly think you are going to be seeing news reports of flooding again and again, the only thing that could stop that right now would be either a proper cold spell, because even if snow totals were high, if it were frozen then it would give the ground further down time to drain, or High pressure, even the traditional zonal ridge-trough-ridge-trough SW-W winds will still cause more flooding if it follows the inevitable trough that will be stuck on top of us in about 8-10 days time where as normally the 12 or 16 hours in between deluges give it time to dry out.

Yes true although major ice problems if we got very cold conditions widely so flooding would become less of a concern but you'd have ice to deal with particularly if last nights gfs was correct.. Although given the huge switcheroo the gfs did in its latest update today suggest its hard to pinpoint an exact pattern further down the line... very wet very cold etc 

Ecm showing a battleground sort of scenario by day 10 although a colder update compared to the previous run. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by jordan smith

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A much better ECM op from the 12s....quite a bit of entrenched cold air in place.... Now let's see where it sits within the ens!! The op was a warm outlier this morning... Is it gonna be a cold outlier this evening!! Stay tuned for more unfolding dramas this evening..... In the events from hell...... We like to Call.... WINTER! 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

A glance at the Arctic plunge and snow effect over the great Lakes

[northwestsnow]

I don't have access to EC ground temps but i would guess they are sub zero by night at day 7 8 and 9...

[Mike Poole]

GEFS 12z at T300:

And still absolutely no way is that an organised trop vortex!  What I have noticed in recent days is that the uncertainty is all on the southeastern hemisphere now, as shown in the spread (standard deviation) plot, that's the blue/purple one for newbies.

So still no certainty on how this will pan out, the strat charts hold a lot of promise, here based on 0z runs:

 

One pesky ensemble member close to a technical SSW at the end.  Very interesting and we are still 20 days away from the start of winter.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I don't have access to EC ground temps but i would guess they are sub zero by night at day 7 8 and 9...

 

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I don't have access to EC ground temps but i would guess they are sub zero by night at day 7 8 and 9...

Nor do I but they will be a fair bit low than the air

[Ali1977]

Not a bad day 10 mean and nice to see the AO and NAO go negative mid month. Another day down, and as expected another day with not a clue as to what is going to happen with the weather beyond day 10 (probably 7), and what the HP to our NE will do. Over to the EC46 to see if that’s changed at all, when is that out ? 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

Have you got the maps  for midnight matt? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM mean remains on the cold side for much of the period... Perhaps a plunge of much colder air into more N/NE parts of Europe later, as highlighted on the NH profile... One to watch perhaps. 

And hey presto.... Just has I thought.... The op was indeed on the colder side of the pack.... We see slight hints of an upturn in temps come day 10 from the mean..... All along way off though, and much water to flow under the bridge just yet.... Like we haven't had enough of it already! 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Have you got the maps  for midnight matt? 

They’re for midnight. It says 12am in the bottom right corner.

[weirpig]

Just now, MattStoke said:

They’re for midnight. It says 12am in the bottom right corner.

I thought that was  c s t   unless I'm mistaken 

[Mapantz]

You need to go back 6 hours, so it would be 06:00pm

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

ECM mean remains on the cold side for much of the period... Perhaps a plunge of much colder air into more N/NE parts of Europe later, as highlighted on the NH profile... One to watch perhaps. 

 

 

For the first time I can recall this season, the ec fi spreads show a reasonable size cluster backing west of deep cold uppers into the Baltic states and e Europe 

[knocker]

The ext EPS very much as expected so I wont repeat the spiel but suffice it to say the surface analysis will be tricky but perhaps indications of less unsettled with temps nearer the norm

NOAA in the same ball park

And 10mb with the GEFS

 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by knocker

[Kentspur]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For the first time I can recall this season, the ec fi spreads show a reasonable size cluster backing west of deep cold uppers into the Baltic states and e Europe 

Nice one as I'm off to Riga in 2 weeks❄

[icykev]

Not sure what it's doing. Still much hope for me when it comes to an ssw and the strat, trop effects amongst others, could see a brutal winter in my opinion. ❄❤

Edited November 11, 2019 by icykev

[Catacol]

Gotta say - some of the current charts for late Nov are as close to cyclonic wintry nirvana as you could wish to see - if it were early January. I really hope this is a template for what is to come this winter given that patterns within a season are apt to repeat. The apparent strat/trop ongoing disconnect is a good sign for the end of autumn, and we haven’t lost the blocking signal yet. There’s a feel about this coming season which is different to the last few....

[markw2680]

Although I love this forum and the chase of that elusive cold wintry blast it does feel as though I’m rushing my life away. Always wanting the following week etc to get here faster unless of course it’s the usual November pattern which thankfully this is most definitely not.

keep up the great posts please

[Stuie]

Well our ECM looks like an outlier run...

 

Edit, especially Yorkshire. 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Stuie W

[Mike Poole]

30 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Gotta say - some of the current charts for late Nov are as close to cyclonic wintry nirvana as you could wish to see - if it were early January. I really hope this is a template for what is to come this winter given that patterns within a season are apt to repeat. The apparent strat/trop ongoing disconnect is a good sign for the end of autumn, and we haven’t lost the blocking signal yet. There’s a feel about this coming season which is different to the last few....

I feel it too!  

This year looks to me to be very different to any recent year, here's the GEFS 12z mean take on the jet stream at T384:

Obviously as it is the mean the uncertainty means that the bit near us where it presumably wiggles about cancels out...but the dots have to be joined and the two ends have to meet up, which looks like a very south jet stream to me...so a good chance the UK could end up on the cold side of the jet going into winter.  Possibly by some margin, which is what I was suggesting yesterday in the winter speculation thread...and if this did happen, I wonder whether while we might not be looking at an extreme cold winter from the north or east, we might be looking at a very snowy one from more marginal setups as the jet weaves it's way towards cold air over us from the south.  We will see..

[feb1991blizzard]

Week 3 promising for disrupting the strat vortex or stopping the upper Westerlies from downwelling, W4 less promising.

Edited November 11, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

^^

+NAO as we head into Dec...