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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

I’d imagine the Norway cold crew are lovin the output recently , they’ve had a very cold October and looking at then next 10 days at least they’ll be froze over . The ensembles well below average and plenty of snow . Setting it up nicely if we get an easterly or north easterly . 😎

96D3FF5A-7B92-4E76-926A-A97A713B6986.png

Yeah looks good,only slight caveat is I have seen that before where Scandinavia gets a cold Autumn followed by Winter,but the UK misses out on the cold weather,what with  our irritating location etc.

But Northern blocking looks to be increasing as we head towards Winter which can only increase our chances of a cold winter ahead.If you like cold winters of course..

Edited by SLEETY

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REALLY fascinating synoptics at the moment.

One graph I always keep tabs on this time of year is the Bern SLP. Mainly because I will be skiing 150km to the SW during Xmas, but in doing so for the past few years, it is worth pointing out that we are often looking the mean line sat consistently at between 1030 and 1040. Nothing of the sort so far this year.  Diving SE jet prevails. Very promising viewing on many levels.

prmslBern.thumb.png.a42a9aa64074a54790c47b1040f9dace.png

 

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5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Chart of the day??

gfs_nh-namindex_20191103.thumb.png.cc318130be2c952bebda7621df6bb269.png

Compare that to just 4 days back...

gfs_nh-namindex_20191031.thumb.png.5fafaf11f5e20959edfad0ad4bcc5f8d.png

Just a quick one as i am laying the room floor...

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity💔👍😜

the ICON is a better run than the 06z,hp into Greenland more pronounced. 

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12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Chart of the day??

gfs_nh-namindex_20191103.thumb.png.cc318130be2c952bebda7621df6bb269.png

Compare that to just 4 days back...

gfs_nh-namindex_20191031.thumb.png.5fafaf11f5e20959edfad0ad4bcc5f8d.png

Yes, think you beat me to it, just posted same in strat thread, but it's kind of expected after that GFS 0z run that it is from, that people were commenting on earlier...will be a good plot to follow day by day as we see whether this can get into the reliable...good signs...

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a quick one as i am laying the room floor...

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity💔👍😜

the ICON is a better run than the 06z,hp into Greenland more pronounced. 

Yes, ICON delivers a good northerly flow across the west of UK at the end of the run, need a few more frames to see whether the cooler uppers get here:

image.thumb.jpg.10ea48c8c882cd772ecf2a1d49d6436f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52f5e0b475104c20f20f8499fde4f5aa.jpg

Lets see what the rest have to offer this afternoon...

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Jma showing a regular occurrence low pressure diving South East hanging over the UK filling then moving into the near continent as a filling feature that classic strong euro High doesn't seem interested atm. A quite cold northeastly behind the system at the end of the week. 🙂

1694125985_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_120(5).thumb.jpg.a2acec5b66a9e1f1ecff6246aa3fb1df.jpg

209721665_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_168(3).thumb.jpg.b27d51b847556947207cbd692078b3c6.jpg

757828995_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(3).thumb.jpg.0265b8f95f7cf7bb24f09ceed839742a.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

You.knew that was gona happen after that ricdiculous 06z op!!ukmo looks pretty good though!!

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

Its the Atlantic low that's the problem - that is what has buggered us on this run - its a bowling ball low rather than a negatively tilted elongated slider like the last run, it could still turn out decent though.

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gfs 06 and 12z 🤣🤣 to be fair nh profile is not that different except the deep low to our nw.

EF673E96-1C2D-4DC8-BE4D-A1EF7BDDA233.png

696E7FDA-0D48-417C-A146-C4D489246C2A.png

Edited by That ECM

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the Atlantic low that's the problem - that is what has buggered us on this run - its a bowling ball low rather than a negatively tilted elongated slider like the last run, it could still turn out decent though.

Indeed but prior to that the heights are less pronounced to the nnw

Edited by swfc

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

gfs 06 and 12z 🤣🤣

EF673E96-1C2D-4DC8-BE4D-A1EF7BDDA233.png

696E7FDA-0D48-417C-A146-C4D489246C2A.png

Different, but the NH is still looking good which is key heading towards late Nov - just need to keep the trend now 

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Different, but the NH is still looking good which is key heading towards late Nov - just need to keep the trend now 

Yes, I agree, absolutely the NH is much more important than local UK picture beyond day 8 or so (yes the low is horrible) but here T240, the trop vortex is marmalized again....

image.thumb.jpg.b64c0eeabf86712d2b13943287bcdf7a.jpg

Some more general thoughts about where we are from me later...

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Big difference on this particular run between UKMO and GFS at 144t.  Although the GFS shows energy over the Atlantic high it still retains the persistent strong ridge to the north for most of the run. Could easily flip back to what it was showing on the 06h run in the next few runs.  Lets see how ECM performs this evening.

C

untitled.png

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

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Would someone put up the link for ukmo at t168 please? Lost it from last winter. TIA

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GFS now looking decent late on, probably would deliver a potent Easterly but will run out of time before it does.

image.thumb.png.4789f53c0679326f853ee97750ce0bad.png

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GFS 12z T336:

image.thumb.jpg.cd887fd4adae6ac24aa9487d6fde27d2.jpg

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS now looking decent late on, probably would deliver a potent Easterly but will run out of time before it does.

image.thumb.png.4789f53c0679326f853ee97750ce0bad.png

Yes.Although that limpit trough took an eternity to shift mid run.

 

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Not often you see a NH profile like that During the second half of November! 1045 high over the North Pole! 

1BB98BCB-F0B4-415C-8F8F-2B869FB49744.png

CA5504A5-90F5-44AB-8C32-9EA8306E8208.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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