Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The whole of eastern Europe seems to be unable to shake off these huge heights.just wondering what's causing it and if it's record breaking?is it the qbo or enso related tia

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

gfs looking similar to ecm now,not a surprise really.

Just continues to look like staying very wet for most areas.

and not much cold air around,as that high is sitting too far South!

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

As per...we have a definitive..profile..

But an oscillation problem!=

And a pact of missed matched format.

And the Pacific quadrant and phasing is an issue..on upstream dynamics!.

 

The p-points are good...though not good enough!

We are however on cusp of resolve/resolution!!=

Let's see WHAT way the road slides!!!!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Really struggling to see any positives tbh on the mo.granted there odd signs of blocking towards iceland and Greenland be it transient.it would seem things never seem to fall for the UK,even dry weather.12z sums it up

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

So let's chill...(no pun intended)=

¿ and await ecm take on miss match/compare.

 

Then take ensemble plots ..

And look at the picture.

I'm sure we are on course and verge now of the likely pre Christmas prognosis!!!

 

And it's as tight as it gets!!!!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Mmmm, is that the chance of a cold late Nov gone not the GFS has given up this run, who knows but you just watch the ECM flip tonight!! There has been no professional forecast that I’ve seen mention a cold late Nov so I’m pretty sure nothing brewing on their models just yet.

The wording on the METO long range has never changed for days, they are good at sitting back and just watching things unfold - I’d have wrote headlines like the daily express over the past few days!!

EC46 out later, will that stick with the +NAO again I wonder!! 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

If this run verified then we are looking at long term flooding risks.

D8>D13 rainfall: anim_bxr4.gif Uppers: anim_uqz0.gif

Only one run of course...

...and probably the worst case scenario TBH.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

So let's chill...(no pun intended)=

¿ and await ecm take on miss match/compare.

 

Then take ensemble plots ..

And look at the picture.

I'm sure we are on course and verge now of the likely pre Christmas prognosis!!!

 

And it's as tight as it gets!!!!

Christmas prognosis??I'm struggling past 167 hrs tbh TI 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Really struggling to see any positives tbh on the mo.granted there odd signs of blocking towards iceland and Greenland be it transient.it would seem things never seem to fall for the UK,even dry weather.12z sums it up

I think there are lots to positive about, the outlook is still average/ cooler than average. Yes, it's unfortunately not a Winter Wonderland but I'm just happy that we finally have average/cooler temperatures - (where they should be). I think we've done pretty well to achieve this stretch of cooler than average and seasonable conditions. I'm just glad to see the weather which isn't milder than average!
Also, it's not like the Continent has been plunged into the freezer and we're missing out, there's just any cold air, so I suppose it is a bit of solace.

Edited by AppleUK 123
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

If this run verified then we are looking at long term flooding risks.

D8>D13 rainfall: anim_bxr4.gif Uppers: anim_uqz0.gif

Only one run of course...

...and probably the worst case scenario TBH.

I never thought I'd say this after summer 2018 when everything was tinder box dry but.. I'm well and truly sick of the rain now. Everything is sopping wet.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I think there is lots to positive about, the outlook is still average/ cooler than average. Yes it's unfortunately not a Winter Wonderland but I'm just happy that we finally have average/cooler temperatures - (where they should be). I think we've done pretty well to achieve this stretch of cooler than average and seasonable conditions. Personally, I'm just glad to see weather which isn't milder than average!

The rain is an issue esp in my area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, swfc said:

The rain is an issue esp in my area.

It is unfortunate, but I suppose even in a more typical pattern there would still be rain. I would much rather have cold rain over mild rain!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

There seems to be a bit of concern in here right now! Yes there is to much rain in the forecast! But a little reminder that we are still not at mid November just yet! I'm still liking the NH profile from GFS, UKMO and GEM, the UK remains on the cold side, and when you look at large portions of Central Europe, and how mild they are, we can't really complain. Yes it could be a worry if significant cold is going to be cut off from the East moving forward! But tbh that's just to far away to be concerned with. On the other hand, if this pattern continues further into December, with the jet digging south.... Colder air from the NW..... sliders delight!! Just imagine a winter setting up this way throughout..... Colder air from a PM source bringing sliders.... While large chunks of Europe remain mild!!! I don't think there coldies would like that!!! But my god... Its a possibility. 

UN144-7.gif

gfsnh-1-144.png

gemnh-1-144.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well deep in fi and that would be a fantastic summer chart all the way from southern Europe.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Model uncertainty continues (what's new!)..example yesterday's Gfs 12z vs todays from more or less the same timeframe..conclusion?...more runs needed!!

12_336_ukthickness850.thumb.png.3ddafe45ca3b4fe4404343bfa05a97f9.png12_324_ukthickness850.thumb.png.2d0643f2a03569c6241f8200f6bea354.png

 

PS..I'm temporarily reactionless..lol

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If we can't have -17C, I guess we'll have to put up with +17C!:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

What can go wrong does go wrong?:wallbash:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Christmas prognosis??I'm struggling past 167 hrs tbh TI 

I appologise.

Pre-Christmas..ie..the sync into the new month..(December)..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

That mean is so so so far away from the standard Nov chart for late Nov, no PV at all to our NW. lots of heights to our north and north east to produce this mean at 300

70420490-7F34-40C1-A201-7BD5E0C7C0B9.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

240-777UK.GIF?11-12

Rainfall totals by day 10, with the exception of the M4 corridor and central wales its not overly extreme.

Most of the rain is pre day 4 for for wales
84-777UK.GIF?11-12

Oh that’s ok then it is only wet in ‘Wales’ after all!? Wales has suffered some of the worst flooding the past few weeks and more rain is certainly not welcome! Thankfully it is subject to change let’s hope for better/dryer runs for the whole of the British Isles! This forum’s English centricity is sometimes very frustrating. 

Edited by Cymro
Punctuation error
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Oh that’s ok then it is only wet in ‘Wales’ after all!? Wales has suffered some of the worst flooding the past few weeks and more rain is certainly not welcome! Thankfully it is subject to change let’s hope for better/dryer runs for the whole of the British Isles! This forum’s English centricity is sometimes very frustrating. 

I would be more than happy to take all your rain! Don't mind more wet weather!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...