Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cumbria 2009, must have been a dufferent part than Carlisle, sure there was floooding in 2010 as well

Nov 2009 brought severe flooding to much of Cumbria, after at the time record 24 hr rainfall in central lakes, beaten since in Dec 2015.

From memory there wasn't any flooding in Nov 2010, a couple of wet spells but nothing severe, coming on the back of a very dry period, indeed were in the midsts of a very dry period that had started in Dec 2009 after the severe flooding in Nov 2009 and lasted through until Summer 2011, after the very dry warm April.

I've also mentioned a number of times how very wet periods have been followed in recent decades by very dry periods.. not saying we are in a very wet period now, as we have had only a few weeks of wetter than normal weather.. not a significant lengthy period yet.

Edited November 11, 2019 by damianslaw

[nick sussex]

Although not as good as the earlier GFS 00 hrs run some relief we didn’t see the phasing tragedy of the ECM .

This is the key moving forward .  As the deep upstream low sw  of Greenland tries to move in if that phases with shortwave energy to the north it’s game over , if it doesn’t it’s still game on .

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by nick sussex

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

From memory there wasn't any flooding in Nov 2010, a couple of wet spells but nothing severe, coming on the back of a very dry period, indeed were in the midsts of a very dry period that had started in Dec 2009 after the severe flooding in Nov 2009 and lasted through until Summer 2011, after the very dry warm April.

I've also mentioned a number of times how very wet periods have been followed in recent decades by very dry periods.. not saying we are in a very wet period now, as we have had only a few weeks of wetter than normal weather.. not a significant lengthy period yet.

This area along with much of the North Midlands, Yorkshire and Lancashire have seen well above average rainfall for each of the past 6 months. It's been relentless.

I remember the first half of November 2010 being very mild.

Edited November 11, 2019 by MattStoke

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

This area along with much of the North Midlands, Yorkshire and Lancashire have seen well above average for each of the past 6 months. It's been relentless.

I remember the first half of November 2010 being very mild.

Yes - perhaps I should have emphasised by observations are based on rainfall totals here in recent months, which have been above average as well, but not excessively so. Whereas places further south I would imagine have seen appreciably above average totals, given the more southerly positioned paths of frontal systems, a more northerly path would have reserved heaviest totals to here I would imagine and Scotland, but central areas seem to be bearing the worst of things at present.

[maxmax]

25 minutes ago, swfc said:

Eh up.i wouldn't get hung up on any charts past 48 hrs in regard to snowfall.your best bet is your local weather.gfs etc arnt that great with snow forecasts.if you live at altitude then that helps.the position of fronts etc will change within 24 hrs.

Sorry bad example. I realize that weather beyond 48 hours is hard to predict but when people get giddy over a run far out or even close in I don't know what it means without taking time to study what i'm looking at. Is there anywhere that explains it in simple terms?

[swfc]

26 minutes ago, maxmax said:

Sorry bad example. I realize that weather beyond 48 hours is hard to predict but when people get giddy over a run far out or even close in I don't know what it means without taking time to study what i'm looking at. Is there anywhere that explains it in simple terms?

No worries.if you can get an area of high pressure to the north and north east then that will in generall send the jet south.this hopefully brings in an easterly,northerly,or winds from the north east.the current models are trying but it's a struggle ATM.the temps aren't great or bringing snow but the polar vortex"purples"isn't as strong has it should be ATM.sorry the high is best situated towards Greenland or scandinavia.look on metiociel on the northern hemisphere profile.gfs,ecmw

Edited November 11, 2019 by swfc

[BlueHedgehog074]

Though it’s the NAVGEM (the model we all love or loathe...), its 00Z run at 168 to 180 hours doesn’t look as though it would follow along the path of the 00Z ECMWF at 192 hours:

NAVGEM 00Z

Some heights getting sucked up to the North of the UK with some Low Pressure sitting about to the South East over Northern France. Further under-cutting possibilities to the West in the Atlantic, and as such, seems to be on the GFS’s team. 

Although posted earlier on, the 00Z ECMWF at 168 and 192 hours as a comparison:

More organised Low in the Atlantic to the West of the UK with a milder/less cool South-Westerly flow. 

NAVGEM only goes out to the 180 hour mark, so the comparison may not be totally fair. Still looks different to the ECMWF overall. Certainly more adjustments and changes to come I suspect, but pleasurable model watching currently. 

[knocker]

The Camborne sounding very unstable in the lower levels which is no big surprise on a day of frequent squally showers, driven trough on the strong wind. Aloft a NW jet of 153kts

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

The Camborne sounding very unstable in the lower levels which is no big surprise on a day of frequent squally showers, driven trough on the strong wind. Aloft a NW jet of 153kts

 

My prediction for January 15th 2020.

 

 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Nov 2009 brought severe flooding to much of Cumbria, after at the time record 24 hr rainfall in central lakes, beaten since in Dec 2015.

From memory there wasn't any flooding in Nov 2010, a couple of wet spells but nothing severe, coming on the back of a very dry period, indeed were in the midsts of a very dry period that had started in Dec 2009 after the severe flooding in Nov 2009 and lasted through until Summer 2011, after the very dry warm April.

I've also mentioned a number of times how very wet periods have been followed in recent decades by very dry periods.. not saying we are in a very wet period now, as we have had only a few weeks of wetter than normal weather.. not a significant lengthy period yet.

Perhaps not where you live, but that comment at the end is not true for many other areas, this one included. I have now had 4 months this year with over 100 mm of rain, unheard of in over 75 years of data available to me.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Perhaps not where you live, but that comment at the end is not true for many other areas, this one included. I have now had 4 months this year with over 100 mm of rain, unheard of in over 75 years of data available to me.

Utterly relentless just across the border too John.

We are desperate for a dry spell now...

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, maxmax said:

Sorry bad example. I realize that weather beyond 48 hours is hard to predict but when people get giddy over a run far out or even close in I don't know what it means without taking time to study what i'm looking at. Is there anywhere that explains it in simple terms?

There is no royal road to geometry, but there is a learning section: 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/

Edit: The most commonly posted charts are for 500hPa geopotential heights, so it's probably best to start with learning about those.

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Yarmy

[mushymanrob]

This really isnt good news , Consistent in their prediction of this elongated trough theres no apparent quick route to drying out. To my untrained eye, this is looking rather wet...i say rather, it could be very. More flooding likely next week has to be a concern.

 

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

This really isnt good news , Consistent in their prediction of this elongated trough theres no apparent quick route to drying out. To my untrained eye, this is looking rather wet...i say rather, it could be very. More flooding likely next week has to be a concern.

 

Being an average over a 6 day period it’s hard to predict much from this, but definitely looking wet in the west , also of note is that monster HP to our NE. Interesting 12zs coming up

[shaky]

Very good ukmo at 144 hours!dont think it will look like ecm at 168 hours!!no changes up to 120 hours on gfs!!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO should certainly offer  relief from the rain...

It certainly is not backing the rubbish EC 00z det..

Edited November 11, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Captain Shortwave]

Both the GFS and UKMO look set to clear away the trough with high pressure building towards the north of the U.K. neither so far backing the ECM solution from this morning which is a positive even if it doesn’t produce anything significant at this point in time.

[mushymanrob]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Being an average over a 6 day period it’s hard to predict much from this, but definitely looking wet in the west , also of note is that monster HP to our NE. Interesting 12zs coming up

indeed, but we know its wet this week, with low pressure domination, its still there next week, however, we will see.

im watching that scandinavian high, it is huge, it wont go anywhere fast, and will threaten us with a cold spell as some ops are suggesting. but im putting my faith in the anomalies, and until they evolve the high our way  or disolve the dominant low, then the threat of a cold spell remains just that, a threat. (by cold i mean wintry, not 'below average' )

[Mucka]

We got bunny ears, can't be all bad.

 

[Met4Cast]

High pressure is too far north and as a result the UK sits right in the low pressure track area. Low after low bringing further rainfall to areas that are already struggling with flooding..

[Weathizard]

Quite a strange November chart it must be said, I really dislike that wretched mega high pressure cell over Eastern Europe and Siberia that seems to have become quite prominent in recent years, it requires such a long patient game, can deliver nothing if it sinks and quite often leaves us stuck under troughing and Atlantic low pressure systems that have nowhere to go.

There are positive aspects to it being there, but given the current flooding situation i’d really love to see a reset and it bugger off.. and sharpish!

[IDO]

On this run pretty much kills any sustained cold flow to the UK, with Europe warming up again. The problem here is that the Russian and Siberian Highs conjoin forcing the flow away from Europe. Nothing from the NW either with the Atlantic flow stalling with the UK at the end of the road, ergo more rain:

Certainly appears that we are in the wrong place and getting cold to our shores is not going to be easy, quite the contrary, which is a shame as this is a very blocked NH profile.

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

High pressure is too far north and as a result the UK sits right in the low pressure track area. Low after low bringing further rainfall to areas that are already struggling with flooding..

Yes looking terrible given the saturation and river warnings.id give my grandmother's wooden leg for a high over the UK for ten days

[shaky]

Pretty atrocious gfs 12z!!!low after low and rainfall after rainfall!!just does not seem to the end!!this for me has been the wettest autumn i have witnessed in many a year!!

[Catacol]

17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at the output tonight and thinking two things- how interesting things look hemispherically but also wondering how much more rain we are going to see fall. The ground is thoroughly sodden, everything is so damp. It's been going on here since May/June.

I think we aren’t done with the rain by a long chalk Crewe - the more southerly tracking jet looks here to stay for a bit yet, and then in December I think we might hit the most +NAO part of the winter. Always hope to be wrong when saying things like this - wall to wall 6 feet snowdrifts is what I’d like to see for the entire winter! (with a couple of short melts to allow restocking of supermarket shelves...) but for the foreseeable rain and floods look set to take all the headlines...