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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean 180 highlights the key features ( russian high & Atlantic ridge )

Good agreement at a long lead time...

ENS will be good-

21A71641-743E-496F-BEC8-D9A1EFC2A20B.thumb.jpeg.64a8d8b98ef9bbfb655c157247b056a1.jpeg

 

A few cracking ENS by day 9, the Op defo has support. If ECM is similar at day 10 they’ll be some happy campers 

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean 180 highlights the key features ( russian high & Atlantic ridge )

Good agreement at a long lead time...

ENS will be good-

21A71641-743E-496F-BEC8-D9A1EFC2A20B.thumb.jpeg.64a8d8b98ef9bbfb655c157247b056a1.jpeg

 

Interesting Steve...

EC will be of interest this evening for sure....

 

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The interest in here will go off the scale if the ECM gives us a excellent run like the GFS.

Bitterly cold air building nicely on the latest GFS run

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I like it when the -24c isotherm walks into town !

279D3A31-5238-45E6-B5F4-C96C858762BA.thumb.png.bf2c74232416b26a32f593db6681a58d.png

Isn't that just one perturbation, there's like 20? It's like I could pick one perturbation for snow in Herne Bay.

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1 hour ago, WXHerts said:

Evening all, first post on here but been a long time lurker..absolutely perfect setup at d10 on the GFS with Atlantic blocked off with unusually cold air (given time of year) fast approaching from the NE..this is possibly our first 'boom' OP of the season?! Interesting times indeed...image.thumb.png.04e4fa65bc56b03feea9c60dca4c8a24.pngimage.thumb.png.f66600ce133eed23a201fdc5c5e31beb.png

Welcome to the madhouse @WXHerts!   The GFS 12z is certainly a very interesting run, need to see if it is replicated on the other models, GEM doesn't go for it, all eyes on the ECM in an hour or so...

GFS run, strat effect peaks about T336:

image.thumb.jpg.35ad780af6ec70196eddcce872e3b8d6.jpg

I am edging towards ambivalence as to whether I want a SSW or not, continued pressure that doesn't quite blow the strat vortex to pieces might have some benefit into December, given the current trop setup? 

Edited by Mike Poole

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So, yet another solution? I'd love for the 12Z operational's ending to be right; but, alas, the flip-flopping hardly inspires confidence...?:unsure2:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

I've a feeling, though I hope I'm wrong, that the op will have one of the coldest endings of the ensemble...We shall see!:oldgrin:

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2 minutes ago, HerneBayWX said:

Isn't that just one perturbation, there's like 20? It's like I could pick one perturbation for snow in Herne Bay.

Go on then ....... bet you’ll struggle ! 
 

I suspect that’s the point you’re trying to make .......

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3 minutes ago, HerneBayWX said:

Isn't that just one perturbation, there's like 20? It's like I could pick one perturbation for snow in Herne Bay.

yes just 1 - you can pick any you like-

Model consensus is about 144 -168 at the moment -

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes just 1 - you can pick any you like-

Model consensus is about 144 -168 at the moment -

You probably just were pointing it out as a one off thing on one of them. Just looked a bit dodgy that's all lol.

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Let's keep on topic folks. If it's just chit-chat, head over to here

Thanks! 👍

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The ext GEFS this evening is still indicating some retrogression of the pattern which portends and intriguing surface analysis with perhaps drier conditions creeping in from the east. Temps around average and the good news is there is not a lot of very cold air in the vicinity

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.e95f46ae0e7230f59b70cc2464d68c3d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.f573a085fe39af7713d70e382591986d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.c660c75be78e9756510e389ab7f4f2bb.png

 

Edited by knocker

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFS this evening is still indicating some retrogression of the pattern which portends and intriguing surface analysis with perhaps drier conditions creeping in from the east. Temps around average and the good news is there not a lot of very cold air in the vicinity

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.e95f46ae0e7230f59b70cc2464d68c3d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.f573a085fe39af7713d70e382591986d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-4683200.thumb.png.c660c75be78e9756510e389ab7f4f2bb.png

 

As expected the colder conditions to the NW Britain.

🙂

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ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.ab9538c09fd63b843cb812b65ba3e756.jpg

GFS and UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.2f505b26c345a73d57f0f1ce59a8f3ee.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2dc3e28c933f3e9d280cca7ff19dcc9c.jpg

I think the ECM is in the middle....of what I'm less sure!

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I’d say the ECM looks better at 168 , look at the feed through Siberia, no kinks just a pure cold straight feed with better heights.

AFA29055-D561-49B3-9574-14280475CA6B.png

B98399A4-071C-4023-B39D-48A8F4959F94.png

Edited by Ali1977

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ECM again looks better at 192 with regards heights, and Atlantic ridge but will they link

8C2CE77F-D1CB-4E07-85F6-F265B5FB0C68.png

1813E1B0-16BF-48AD-9474-167470B04C75.png

Edited by Ali1977

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 D8 actually looks reasonably similar to GFS all round..infact low looks a bit more 'slidey' on ECM, let's see where this goes. image.thumb.png.f818fad672a93b578ea64f9eba765208.pngimage.thumb.png.ae3bc4b2156b11f018649dfd920ab84a.png 

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’d say the ECM looks better at 168 , look at the feed through Siberia, no kinks just a pure cold straight feed!! 

AFA29055-D561-49B3-9574-14280475CA6B.png

Siberian high looks very strong..

image.png

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From 192> on the ecm,that low in the Atlantic should undercut the high over Iceland and then game on.

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.5feafcc82fc63a013ffcca75a6f7b4c0.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

From 192> on the ecm,that low in the Atlantic should undercut the high over Iceland and then game on.

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.5feafcc82fc63a013ffcca75a6f7b4c0.gif

 

50/50 for me, don't want it to stall as that would likely meaning the azores high ridging into Spain

Arctic high of 1045 MB popping into view at day 8- wonder if that will have any effect.

Edited by northwestsnow

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Excuse the running comme try, and here’s 216. If those 2 areas of heights link near Iceland/Svalbard we could be game on as the block looks less likely to sink that the GFS - also to note is a load of WAA near NF’land, this could also join the party.

The Jet stream is way south , and we have an arctic/Siberian HP and no PV over Greenland 👍

E021F326-2748-4E18-B149-FB2149DE3540.png

Edited by Ali1977

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