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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 out

Just a one-off summary before disappearing once more..  I freely admit I have no interest whatsoever in attempting to fit patterns to preferred outcomes, despite my own preferences which much mor

Thanks mate 10000 over 15 years !! ? ?  

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20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

I wasn’t tracking the weather in 2010 as much, was that forecast picked up on the long range METO forecasts, and the likes of GFS FI?

 

Can’t remember whether it was 09 or 10 but one of them was picked up very well by the modelling across the board from a few weeks out 

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According to the GEFS 6z mean it's looking predominantly unsettled, temperatures generally below average throughout (especially further north), indeed the week ahead becomes increasingly colder during the second half so an increasing chance of hill snow and perhaps to lower levels!..a thing to keep an eye on is height rises to the E / NE and trough disruption with (slider lows) leading to possible undercuts enabling even colder air to be drawn across the UK  but in any event, it doesn't look like any mild weather as such and we should all see some overnight frosts / icy patches and even some freezing fog during the quieter interludes..a wintry flavour to late autumn..I'm happy!!!!?

Edited by JON SNOW
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A veil of Cs, thickening to As, associated with the occlusion approaching from the west has already arrived down here and rain will follow into N. Ireland by 1800. This will track east overnight bringing rain to all areas but falling as snow over the higher ground in Scotland (complicated here by a wave forming on the trailing front close to the Hebrides) and maybe as far south as the Pennines. Frequent heavy showers will follow as the wind picks up along western coastal regions.

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UKMO and GFS quite different at T120, here:

image.thumb.jpg.78f8452f11684905ea97a973860da714.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8dfa9afcaa0d68fd47209ad4a7e519c4.jpg

You could see a cross polar ridge vortex shredder eventually developing on GFS, but more difficult from here on UKMO.

Edit, more than a passing resemblance to a human head at T162, including ear:

image.thumb.jpg.0d2bc31447db528f80670296ce1ac36a.jpg

But we'll have to wait for my cross polar ridge!

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good consistency from the GFS .

The digging upstream troughing forcing the ridge ne ahead of it . We’re looking to develop a lobe of high pressure to the north , this will help deflect more energy se as the next upstream low tries to move in.

Yes let's hope ECM is a little more forthcoming since it wouldn't take huge adjustments from here for lowland England to see some snow falling around 16th/17th from the slider.

gfsnh-0-156.png?12

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And we are there at day 9 ????, cold air into Scotland already , not sure what happens next. No doubt heights NE will collapse this run 

52FE8887-99DC-4584-B851-A796A9CCB00E.png

Edited by Ali1977
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And we are there at day 9 ????, cold air into Scotland already 

52FE8887-99DC-4584-B851-A796A9CCB00E.png

looks ok so far,could be spoiler shortwave

Edited by swfc
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5 minutes ago, swfc said:

and here comes the shortwave

Another step closer to something great, just need some ECM action that follows suite. Nice to be viewing these charts early Nov rather than late Feb that’s for sure.

24 hour snowstorm in Oslo with that shortwave.

Edited by Ali1977
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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good consistency from the GFS .

The digging upstream troughing forcing the ridge ne ahead of it . We’re looking to develop a lobe of high pressure to the north , this will help deflect more energy se as the next upstream low tries to move in.

Yes, some of the GEFS have been very undercutty with the Atlantic low lately, i think that is the easier part of the equation, we need the high to the North of us to link up with that Russian / Arctic / Siberian high on a SW to NE tilt so that the siberian express doesn't just stall in Scandi and ends up calling at Sweden, Norway, The North sea and any other stations i might have missed and ends up picking up some passengers in the North sea, lifting them, condensing them and precipitating them off at various UK stations.

image.thumb.png.3d8aaec83b09f028d0d2947b768ed5d4.png

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10 minutes ago, WXHerts said:

Evening all, first post on here but been a long time lurker..absolutely perfect setup at d10 on the GFS with Atlantic blocked off with unusually cold air (given time of year) fast approaching from the NE..this is possibly our first 'boom' OP of the season?! Interesting times indeed...image.thumb.png.04e4fa65bc56b03feea9c60dca4c8a24.pngimage.thumb.png.f66600ce133eed23a201fdc5c5e31beb.png

I'm waiting for ECM to come out to see if it'll go the same way before we all get a bit excited.

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing with this is it’s likely to develop more as the cold air hits the warmer North Sea .

This then will slow the advance of the deeper cold . What we want is the pattern further se . Key is a strong high to the north.

Anyway that’s a long way ahead . The key initial developments are days 6 into 7.

 

Yes Nick, you can always tell when an E-NE flow is going to go wrong in the modelling, always that kink shortwave in the Isobars just off the Norwegian sea, as soon as you see that in the modelling appearing as you tick down to 0, it usually ends up with the E'ly going wrong.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes Nick, you can always tell when an E-NE flow is going to go wrong in the modelling, always that kink shortwave in the Isobars just off the Norwegian sea, as soon as you see that in the modelling appearing as you tick down to 0, it usually ends up with the E'ly going wrong.

GFS is excellent for coldies,the issue here for me is not some shortwave at day 12, it is if the model has things right at day 6/7..

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is excellent for coldies,the issue here for me is not some shortwave at day 12, it is if the model has things right at day 6/7..

The shortwave almost certainly won't be there but it's just shown on that run.id guess from 144-168 hours the whole run will change

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