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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i know its  fantasy world  will not happen but good to keep an eye  on it

gensnh-15-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Fascinating Gfs 0z operational FI with bitterly cold air just across the north sea, some tasty GEFS 0z members too!!..lots to keep an eye on..or rather 2 eyes on!!

00_384_mslp850.thumb.png.d1cb4cedb7b389a53ce3eaac1921bb9b.png00_384_preciptype.thumb.png.4295c415d3fb8df2303f95eae4239757.png00_384_ukthickness850.thumb.png.fd28b719fbde5273fe146ecd7265cda9.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes knocks ..... subtle changes ..... the n Pacific trough firming up more Aleutian than Alaskan and the w Russian ridge showing a bit of a retrogressive tendency - irrespective of trop surface consequences, that’s a solid recipe for affects into the strat

 

Surely not blocking precursors blue

Blocking influence mainly involves interference with planetary waves. Euro-Atlantic (eastern Pacific) blocks have the largest warming effect through W1(W2) propagation

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ben/blocking2016/talks/barriopedro.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

That midnight gfs run was awesome,with the Great Siberian high nearly on our doorstop at the end with minus 24 hpa not far away and heading towards the UK

Big trend in the models in wanting to build it westwards,let's hope it continues on the next run due now.

Nice to see some new posters here and posting.Welcome to the forum guys and of course gals

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

There's a real chance of something wintry showing up in Southern Ireland on Wednesday evening. All the parameters look to be met, heavy ppn, thickness below 528dam and uppers just hovering -5. Primarily a high ground event if it does happen but one to watch. It's not often snow falls here in November 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Goes a bit weird after day 10 but massive potential again,with that big cold pool of air to the NE waiting to pounce.

Most exciting start to the winter season that I can remember in recent years ,decades even.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6zgfs looks unsettled and cool imo.hopeing to see a decrease on further runs regarding rainfall!!!☹️☹️

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Goes a bit weird after day 10 but massive potential again,with that big cold pool of air to the NE waiting to pounce.

Most exciting start to the winter season that I can remember in recent years ,decades even.

 

 

I get the nagging feeling that we’ve been here before with great early synoptics, and come winter it all goes to pot. 

Take example the wintry blast in Nov 2001 that @Weather-history posted about in another thread..... Winter 2001/02 was not particularly memorable I don’t think. I’m keeping my feet firmly on the ground for now

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From here at T+180: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

To this at T+384:       h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png  

I'm glad I didn't inform my family of impending Snowmageddon. Just yet! :shok::oldgrin:                         

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Some decent GEFS at day 11, the last one has a 6000 mile easterly draw

A8CB0692-26A0-4E2F-864E-F3A7AA289754.png

D7A933D2-5929-4686-AD95-4A072F6FFEC2.png

D3EDC636-6C86-452E-8C63-A364FDDB873C.png

06C988C9-1AE5-4194-9E79-01CA34CF5368.png

217F9CA9-F4E4-450D-A961-2E7A79CC79D7.png

A0ECBE06-33C8-40D2-94DD-F21136DC2A3B.png

6AAC37A8-4439-4D44-B0FB-5AFC7D1419F7.png
 

We do tap into these easterlies in FI on several ENS, but strangely no real cold hits our shore.  Trends still going strong though 

 

 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some decent GEFS at day 11, the last one has a 6000 mile easterly draw

 

 

 

e do tap into these easterlies in FI on several ENS, but strangely no real cold hits our shore.  Trends still going strong though 

 

 

It is still a bit too early, there is no real cold pool yet east of us

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some decent GEFS at day 11, the last one has a 6000 mile easterly draw

 

Trimmed Quote

 

We do tap into these easterlies in FI on several ENS, but strangely no real cold hits our shore.  Trends still going strong though 

 

 

Moscow is seeing some unusually high temps at the moment. This time of year maxes should be around 1c instead they're still getting close to or just above 10c by day

gefsens850Moscow_Russia0.thumb.png.5d7ad3e94454a0295cbfb41bcab82e75.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But, there is a quantum of solace to be had from the GEFS 06Z ensembles, I think...the GFS operational run is in an SLP class of its own!:oldgrin:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

So, for now at least, it might be best to put its evolution down to deterministic chaos...? 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec clusters in week 2 revert to one option but there are only three at day 10 and they aren’t that different ....... unusually, i take that to mean the single extended cluster on ec is a reasonable call ...... though obviously not nailed on with the positioning of the upper features 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Think where we normally are at this time of year ,either at the Zonal train or waiting for it soon to arrive,and hoping for a brief northerly toppler during the winter months,with SE Europe waiting for the cold to arrive,Greece notably.

 

The NH pattern is in a most unusual state,currently,and no sign of a change in the reliable time frame.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec clusters in week 2 revert to one option but there are only three at day 10 and they aren’t that different ....... unusually, i take that to mean the single extended cluster on ec is a reasonable call ...... though obviously not nailed on with the positioning of the upper features 

And does that single extended cluster keep the heights to our NE, with a possibility of something colder our way later in Nov? Or close but no cigar? 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
45 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And does that single extended cluster keep the heights to our NE, with a possibility of something colder our way later in Nov? Or close but no cigar? 

Yes to the heights and no idea re the second question as we can’t see e Europe 

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