Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[jules216]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, the scrag-end of the GFS 00Z looks different:

   

And, unfortunately, the 00Z Operational does not show up, in the ensembles -- but, here goes, anyway:

   

 

I wonder what effects, in the long term, the warmth over Eastern Europe will have?

 

EPS 0Z still steady on not dropping the mean below average for here(Slovakia), the better news is there seems to be a lot more scatter at the end and few ensembles now that go colder. Mean is still about 3C above average though

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

This weekend.

@T+096 Sunday

All in all a very promising GFS early setup for the Mountains

Heres one from deep deep FI 

06z on its way.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Unfortunately Cumbria Temp ensembles not having anything of it.

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Sorry if i offended you so early in the morning with the possibility of uk climatology norm setting in a few weeks down the line(pv reinserts itself) I'll choose my words more wisely in the future

Not offended in the slightest and no need to change your words on my behalf - it's called debating is it not? I was just arguing the point that it's premature to write off a whole winter on one thing. Anyway moving on.....how about that GFS

[booferking]

1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

Not offended in the slightest and no need to change your words on my behalf - it's called debating is it not? I was just arguing the point that it's premature to write off a whole winter on one thing. Anyway moving on.....how about that GFS

See this is where someone is putting words in ones month i never stated once that winter was over at all i stated that the pv was more than likely to gain strength again in the next few weeks and its always best when the door is open to take your chance as you might not get that chance again for quite a few weeks if the pv strengthen, nothing to do with winter as whole just the front loaded chance can be missed.

[johnholmes]

Looking in the relatively near future, the usual 6-10 period with the 500 mb anomaly charts=

Wed 6 November 2019

All 3 now show a similar chart that is ridging eastern atlantic with n of w flow into uk, fairly similar looking charts really and the 8-14 noaa is not all that different to the 6-10 noaa.

So rather changeable, possibly the odd rapid deepening surface low approaching uk in the period, on the cold side of normal with prob snow higher hills Peak/Snowdonia north. Calmer spells, if o/n=frost over fairly wide areas?

Contour height just s of uk=546 is fairly cold for this time of the year.

I have no idea why the NOAA site link now shows as it does below!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[shaky]

Very very worrying signs this morning from gfs!!not only have we lost amplification around the atlantic but scandi heights have gone aswell!!we are left with your normal cold zonal north west flow now!!

[phil nw.]

Looking through the ECM suite the basic nw-se jet flow remains the basic pattern. 

Later frames in the ens. show more chance of a northerly than any easterly as the mean upper trough is shunted just to our east. May not be the worst outcome for cold fans given the mild over Eastern Europe. 

Still looking cold and unsettled anyway with that upper trough keeping the UK on the polar side of the jet flow. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes a North Westerly attack.

[weirpig]

Some Very cold air for the time of year entering the north Atlantic  on a brisk North westerly flow. 

[weirpig]

There is your typical late autumn pattern right there.     which is actual something i like  

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z seems to be chugging slowly.

[mb018538]

Same old problems as we always have....warm western USA, very cold eastern USA. Massive temperature contrast along the eastern seaboard. Turbo charged jetstream, low pressure fired straight at the UK. Repeat ad nauseum. 

[joggs]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

There is your typical late autumn pattern right there.     which is actual something i like  

I'd have said the more typical pattern would be more of a sw pattern imo.

That looks chilly/cold and unsettled.

And the profile over the arctic is not too bad with higher than normal pressure. As a coldie I'm happy with how its shaping up.

Of course we'll have mild sw at some point but there is alot to be encouraged about imho.

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Very very worrying signs this morning from gfs!!not only have we lost amplification around the atlantic but scandi heights have gone aswell!!we are left with your normal cold zonal north west flow now!!

Yes, we are learning all the time with the new GFS, and it does seem it has the ECM problem of over hyping height rises. I think we are going to have to face up to a lot of cold false dawns if the 06z about-face is correct!

Here are the 10 day ECM and GFS 0z bias and we can see why those 10-day charts in both models rarely come about; D7 bias:

We will have to see whether we are heading into the normal Autumn pattern (wind, rain, cool at times), and buckle down for a while till something colder develops.

[Ali1977]

Looks like a cracking run for the alps and Scottish ski resorts, so not all bad. To be honest it still looks pretty good, still heights around Greenland at day 12 and low pressure over the med - let’s be honest, we could be in a much worse position than this heading to mid Nov. 

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters now pushing another trough through the pattern around mid-month rather than building a north-Atlantic ridge (and with it all my memories of typical winter chasing on ECM charts come flooding back!!)

The Scandi High (or perhaps Sceuro?) is still showing for the D10-D15 period on the main cluster but dropped from 50% to 40% of members 

This is the second time the ECM has underestimated the Atlantic in a large way in the past two weeks - worth bearing in mind when the next attempt at northern heights crops up - might be one of "those" periods for the ECM. (Though being beyond D6 still, of course a chance it may flip back, too   )

[feb1991blizzard]

This is a stonking chart long term for the Stratosphere though i would have thought.

 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all . Woke up to a nice covering of fresh snow. The fine mesh model we use forecast 20cm at our location with-in 2 Sq M perimeter and guess what ? Spot on. Just blows me away with the numerical accuracy at that range. A great tool for the resort planners. The winterview  chart below from CDPS model seems to continue the rather cold unsettled spell over much of NW Europe at 144t with further snowfall over the Alps and increasingly so over upland Northern Britain. There appears some uncertainty at this range from this mornings big main models. Both GFS and ECM seem to water down the prospects of a developing Scandinavian with a shift to a more Northerly flow and mid- Atlantic ridging but the British Isles remains in the cold side of the trough throughout. Will get the views of the team with regards to their own medium longer term outlook. In the meanwhile just received latest snowfall portal service report and that's for 30cm more snowfall before the end of Sunday.

C

OK, got a bit of an up date from the team over here. They think the latest GFS run flattens the Atlantic ridge far to quickly at 144t and beyond. Certainly a flow NW to SE into much of NW Europe at this stage. Beyond that period their own model hints at a more sharper Mid Atlantic ridging than being shown by GFS and lesser so by the ECM. Also discussed the demise of the Scandinavian heights previous shown on the shorter to medium term models. They think the forecast models are in a volatile state presently and over the coming days with rapid changes in the atmospheric dynamics likely to occur. So flips in the models more than likely but generally the feeling is for a rather cold and unsettled period for most  , especially in NW Europe/ British Isles. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

@Man With Beard I did wonder if we were going to see a continuation of the nwp habit of simply getting it wrong as week 2 progressed - over the past few weeks we had seen repeated attempts to ramp up the n Atlantic in fi which pulled back as we approached the reliable and now we see the amplification being over done 

note the 06z gfs does at least bring back the arctic blocking that seemed to go AWOL on the 00z. Looks more in line with the gefs continuity 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

@Man With Beard I did wonder if we were going to see a continuation of the nwp habit of simply getting it wrong as week 2 progressed - over the past few weeks we had seen repeated attempts to ramp up the n Atlantic in fi which pulled back as we approached the reliable and now we see the amplification being over done 

note the 06z gfs does at least bring back the arctic blocking that seemed to go AWOL on the 00z. Looks more in line with the gefs continuity 

Also bring back strat warming.

[stodge]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Same old problems as we always have....warm western USA, very cold eastern USA. Massive temperature contrast along the eastern seaboard. Turbo charged jetstream, low pressure fired straight at the UK. Repeat ad nauseum. 

Yes, probably only been like this since the end of the last Ice Age so nothing new there.

The only saving grace so far has been the wedge of heights into Scandinavia which has forced the trough to align negatively.

As Tamara opined, that's not going to last forever and we may have to enjoy/endure a prolonged spell of Atlantic zonality - again, pretty much as has happened every winter since the end of the last Ice Age. That in turn will end somehow (SSW?)  and it's that we need to hope will lead to a 7-10 day spell of severe winter weather which will make the winter of 2019-20 in any way "memorable".

[feb1991blizzard]

Now the GEFS are bowloakesed now the op is back to normal.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Feb, your gonna need stress medication mate come the beginning of winter! Every GFS op run is different to the next one... Surely not worth getting to hung up over this early mate. The 6z ensembles not even been done yet. Looking at the 0Z ensembles from both GFS and ECM, we still have a fair few colder options on the table. Which considering its only early November, is still decent. If we are  expecting siberian blast in the heart of winter... We will probably be disappointed!! If we are expecting it this early.... We will most definitely be disappointed. Roll on the 12s....early days and all that.... Still looking at least seasonal and that's better than this time last year. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Feb, your gonna need stress medication mate come the beginning of winter! 

 

Not sure on your point, not stressing at all, just pointing out that the runs are irregular at the moment.