Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[ArHu3]

This mornings Ec's +240

Charts like this one are rare even in a FI, too bad it's still a little bit to early in the year even if it did come to fruition 

[knocker]

To put a touch more meat on the bone with the ecm. The showery rain clears away to the south on Sunday but the next trough quickly arrives on the scene bringing more wet and windy weather, perhaps plenty of snow on the high ground in the north, Mon/Tues

[Timmytour]

With reference to Knocker's post I see another Saturday of rain is on the cards. It never ceases to amaze me how our weather seems to get stuck in a rut every so often of what appear to be seven day patterns. The weekends are I suppose what I would notice more, and more so when the weather is of an extreme of one sort, but I wonder if there is an 'every seventh day' legend applicable to atmospheric waves akin to the  'every seventh wave' legend applicable to the oceans!

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

This mornings Ec's +240

Charts like this one are rare even in a FI, too bad it's still a little bit to early in the year even if it did come to fruition 

Im afraid its a huge downgrade - this is it.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im afraid its a huge downgrade - this is it.

Both still look really good!!infact from a uk and coldie perspective prefer this run at 240 hours cos its cold and got a northerly across the uk!the 12z just showed at mild south south easterly muck and a potential easterly a few days down the line which probably would never arrive lol

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Both still look really good!!infact from a uk and coldie perspective prefer this run at 240 hours cos its cold and got a northerly across the uk!the 12z just showed at mild south south easterly muck and a potential easterly a few days down the line which probably would never arrive lol

Look on both though and where the biggest pv segment has re-located to on the latest run.

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look on both though and where the biggest pv segment has re-located to on the latest run.

Siberia right, isn't it that where we want it? We certainly don't want it over Greenland, like on the 12z

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Siberia right, isn't it that where we want it? We certainly don't want it over Greenland, like on the 12z

Ecm 12z has the pv located Siberia & 00z is over Canada/Greenland?

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im afraid its a huge downgrade - this is it.

 

Its a chart full of potential from where i'm sitting Feb.

Ace up the sleeve is Euro LP, and the wedge of HP over Iceland.

All that said, as a day 10 chart it will probs be different come 7pm.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm 12z has the pv located Siberia & 00z is over Canada/Greenland?

Some lovely polar blocking highs across the model suites but all in the wrong place for us.......for now.

[bluearmy]

My take of the direction of travel is that the Canadian vortex may well have its attention drawn towards lowering Alaskan heights rather than in the direction of the Atlantic or indeed, it’s Siberian partner. If that verifies, then expect extensive blocking Asian side of the NH

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Some lovely polar blocking highs across the model suites but all in the wrong place for us.......for now.

Great start to the winter campaign but if we don't hit something in next couple of weeks it will be all for nothing pv nearly always guaranteed to reorganize itself.

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Its a chart full of potential from where i'm sitting Feb.

Ace up the sleeve is Euro LP, and the wedge of HP over Iceland.

All that said, as a day 10 chart it will probs be different come 7pm.

To me the 12z was miles better, Atlantic would have remained blocked and only a matter of time before some sort of cold spell ensued, i cannot say it would have been potent for definite because of time of year but far better than a half baked toppler with the Atlantic about to fire up.

[knocker]

Little change with the ext EPS from last evening so no further comment

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To me the 12z was miles better, Atlantic would have remained blocked and only a matter of time before some sort of cold spell ensued, i cannot say it would have been potent for definite because of time of year but far better than a half baked toppler with the Atlantic about to fire up.

The 12z was different for sure.

[Coopsy]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Great start to the winter campaign but if we don't hit something in next couple of weeks it will be all for nothing pv nearly always guaranteed to reorganize itself.

Nothing like a sweeping statement to start the day. I'm not sure we can make a blanket statement like this with so many signals for cold in place this year, Yes it's early and all just starting to unfold and needs to fall into place, but I'd take this over the last few years any day.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Nothing like a sweeping statement to start the day. I'm not sure we can make a blanket statement like this with so many signals for cold in place this year, Yes it's early and all just starting to unfold and needs to fall into place, but I'd take this over the last few years any day.

Not seeing these signals ..... the semi reliable timeframe looks interesting but anything more than this ???

[Coopsy]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not seeing these signals ..... the semi reliable timeframe looks interesting but anything more than this ???

I think you just have to read back through this thread to see it's far more interesting of late with regards to the trop/strat/SSW/NAO/AO/sun minima and more. Maybe 'signal' inst the right technical phrase but a lot of things on the positive side for aligning for cold. IF it all comes to fruition.

[booferking]

22 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Nothing like a sweeping statement to start the day. I'm not sure we can make a blanket statement like this with so many signals for cold in place this year, Yes it's early and all just starting to unfold and needs to fall into place, but I'd take this over the last few years any day.

Sorry if i offended you so early in the morning with the possibility of uk climatology norm setting in a few weeks down the line(pv reinserts itself) I'll choose my words more wisely in the future

[carinthian]

Morning all . Woke up to a nice covering of fresh snow. The fine mesh model we use forecast 20cm at our location with-in 2 Sq M perimeter and guess what ? Spot on. Just blows me away with the numerical accuracy at that range. A great tool for the resort planners. The winterview  chart below from CDPS model seems to continue the rather cold unsettled spell over much of NW Europe at 144t with further snowfall over the Alps and increasingly so over upland Northern Britain. There appears some uncertainty at this range from this mornings big main models. Both GFS and ECM seem to water down the prospects of a developing Scandinavian with a shift to a more Northerly flow and mid- Atlantic ridging but the British Isles remains in the cold side of the trough throughout. Will get the views of the team with regards to their own medium longer term outlook. In the meanwhile just received latest snowfall portal service report and that's for 30cm more snowfall before the end of Sunday.

C

[feb1991blizzard]

40 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I think you just have to read back through this thread to see it's far more interesting of late with regards to the trop/strat/SSW/NAO/AO/sun minima and more. Maybe 'signal' inst the right technical phrase but a lot of things on the positive side for aligning for cold. IF it all comes to fruition.

Looks very much to me like a signal for a backloaded winter to me.

[Ali1977]

What’s happened to the GFS, is it having some issues? 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What’s happened to the GFS, is it having some issues? 

Yes, it is jerked, but you can see by the ensembles though the basic situation, they are still working, means, graphs and individual runs.

Edited November 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What’s happened to the GFS, is it having some issues? 

No issues here - 

GFS Weather Charts - updated four times daily - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

Well, the scrag-end of the GFS 00Z looks different:

   

And, unfortunately, the 00Z Operational does not show up, in the ensembles -- but, here goes, anyway:

   

 

I wonder what effects, in the long term, the warmth over Eastern Europe will have?