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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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That low pressure system heading to northern France is showing up very clearly on radar.

Screenshot_20191102_225214_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.c964c74014e1143dc28fa2f552e0573a.jpg

Things *may* settle down in some parts towards mid November particularly in the south atm but before then the week ahead upto 10 days shows quite alot of rainfall still to come. :oldgood:

1157089440_precipaccum10dayukhd(7).thumb.png.d59f428f62fcccbdf792ddfd9ba1e879.png

Edited by jordan smith

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Excuse the small image but this ENS snap shot of the NH on day 11 isn’t standard for mid Nov, PV in tatters!! 

457FD124-5A2E-4B09-BC69-F40F8AE7F63B.png

Edited by Ali1977

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52 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Excuse the small image but this ENS snap shot of the NH on day 11 isn’t standard for mid Nov, PV in tatters!! 

457FD124-5A2E-4B09-BC69-F40F8AE7F63B.png

What is shown in those charts is nothing out of the ordinary for mid November. A 170 years of data shows this date has little bearing on following winter weather. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=11&hour=0&map=4&mode=1&type=ncep&region=

 

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3 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

What is shown in those charts is nothing out of the ordinary for mid November. A 170 years of data shows this date has little bearing on following winter weather. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.phpday=14&month=11&hour=0&map=4&mode=1&type=ncep&region=
 

 

What are you getting at with this? My point being  the PV doesn’t look in great shape in a time where it often is gaining strength . Just an observation, I have no doubt it’ll change considerably each run!! What has 170 years of data got to do with that and discussing what each run shows!!!  
The 00z shows this at day 9, that low moving I to the med is in a better position than some others with it nearer Italy and not over Spain, could help down the line and another great run for the Alps.

DF1E766D-9D4A-420A-8246-0148721E9509.png
just need some WAA up west Canada now and it would be epic I think - mid Nov caveat obviously!!

Edit - as if my magic that WAA appeared!! 

 

CF0198A5-E353-4B77-BA77-AF9BE7596F46.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Should get a few comments this morning, epic cold close to being unleashed should this come to fruition. 

24CAC094-B722-41F8-AF0F-2B983E729B0E.png

572EF72F-1D02-4114-BE71-3CA376FDFAB8.png

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Hello pretty decent hemispheric pattern.

image.thumb.png.1e4dd37bc1bbb730820946f8ea96c200.png

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22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello pretty decent hemispheric pattern.

image.thumb.png.1e4dd37bc1bbb730820946f8ea96c200.png

Didn’t come to much cold wise for us, but crazy NH

AAC065EF-4D05-4ADF-BEC2-AA7BAC39D1C1.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Didn’t come to much cold wise for us, but crazy NH

AAC065EF-4D05-4ADF-BEC2-AA7BAC39D1C1.png

Its almost too good, there are no upper troughs in quadrants 3 or 4.

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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 European surface analysis

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-2739200.thumb.png.4053600eb44d91eed426f4554dc63f28.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.70ac68f8f8695eb904df6ca3f7f9d916.gifeur_full.thumb.gif.b987d003812a68551ed26227c63e2307.gif

The upper trough continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic with the UK remaining within the circulation of the filling surface low whilst a subsidiary Baltic low is bringing some nasty weather to western France. Thus a continuation of heavy showers and sunny intervals but more particularly in northern Scotland, with longer periods of rain, and the south west/south of England. Late in the afternoon a belt of rain will track north east from the south west courtesy of the occlusion. Less windy than yesterday but still quite strong along the north east coast of Scotland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.11be30afab56c459307e8b2841b436dd.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.610757c3a8928a1e5c7c35834fbe6578.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.3a8c30aef2aab1735fcf181c458b020c.png

Through this evening and tonight rain will continue to effect north east Scotland whilst heavy and frequent heavy showers move east across the south west and Wales as a new surface low enters the fray under the umbrella of the trough

PPVG89.thumb.gif.57ec22798e7268cfd0559c662d0eded3.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.f68b6c204b35f685f72dcca5a1336542.pngprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.567e8259e6d7271f53d9f50b570498c4.png

By midday Monday the trough is moving towards a neutral tilt under pressure from the west with the surface low centred over Bristol and a myriad of fronts straddled across the country. Overview: some heavy rain eastern/central Scotland and frequent heavy showers with thunder in the mix for Wales and the south west/south of England

PPVI89.thumb.gif.108929f4b8b9f1fa2f13376584ad51ce.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.de4b35c4a2607e687e2a3eaa1477ed7f.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.1623f0353701d8badadc436ceca34ad8.png

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the now neutrally aligned trough is pushed east by the aforementioned pressure resulting in a much drier day and cooler day for most as the surface wind veers north easterly But the likelihood of wintry showers over the hills in the north and still some cloud and rain in the south east from the remnants of the old low

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-2955200.thumb.png.11480f22d765eed10c4637340befd5f9.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.7aab558844e7174f4baeb76e28718ad1.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.e5ec57e9b862af51a8c8f706f821af10.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2976800.thumb.png.19402a772453858df1e4a045bc19a4a1.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-2976800.thumb.png.6193e8fedbee627bdd3963bfd0fc097c.png

The eastward movement of the pattern continues on Wednesday resulting in a relatively sunny day with little wind after a widespread frost to start the day but cloud and rain will encroach western regions during the afternoon as a frontal wave tracks east

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-3041600.thumb.png.9f924eb2a5519f0a1525ff5010e97845.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.39d5c22159b7052d4a2dc52be19a8c3e.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3063200.thumb.png.520f4ea4c516ac1e1302a3838de4f27e.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-3063200.thumb.png.e700f81ad7d114b1b47e42b00e519ea5.png

The frontal wave develops and this is the position by midday Thursday resulting in a very unsettled day with frequent heavy showers, wintry over northern hills, with longer periods of rain thrown in along with some gusty winds  Temp a tad below average

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3117200.thumb.png.ce39adf1b9c9069a554f647a5317b65a.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.86e1281f54e4d9456104894fea72f501.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-3149600.thumb.png.4cfc25ab30d14307c5d8d4f584516d3e.png

Edited by knocker

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According to the gfs the unsettled theme continues over the weekend as troughs continue track east from the Canadian vortex/trough courtesy of a very strong jet

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3322400.thumb.png.31f9356c1cfc26469bd7c46e2c45d3e8.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3408800.thumb.png.8991c6167f72d3b1225bec6ac8fccc5a.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-3408800.thumb.png.bbfa954a72503e6a9437e754b719b12f.png

But one thing to note regarding the quite intense amplification upstream is the arctic plunge down North America

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-3473600.thumb.png.a864e108f7372e46af460ba9aba4c094.png

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And a quick glance at the ext GEFS mean anomaly. Very much in line with the anomalies posted last evening so I wont babble on. Suffice it to say that the indications are that the surface analysis remains tricky with temps a tad below average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3948800.thumb.png.567be88a72e44c6e0d22ea2de11a4fc4.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-3948800.thumb.png.2fb03ed8d31339a2ac039b0ce434dbda.png

Edited by knocker

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A quick glance at the ecm for the weekend. Not a bad day on Saturday before it goes rapidly downhill overnight

132.thumb.png.bf6dc29a9579b1010b0595bbcfa1d50b.png156.thumb.png.13b17c51d793b8ca9e05965e96480650.png174.thumb.png.ce09e22646216592c4e24e8d2793f694.png

Edited by knocker

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Being a novice with the charts, I did a double take with this one. Being so used to seeing the blues/purples sitting centrally (ish) I don't quite know how to read it. Obviously its fl, but what would the weather implications be? 

Screenshot_20191103-071542_Chrome.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Being a novice with the charts, I did a double take with this one. Being so used to seeing the blues/purples sitting centrally (ish) I don't quite know how to read it. Obviously its fl, but what would the weather implications be? 

Screenshot_20191103-071542_Chrome.jpg

Gfs let's you see t2 and 850hPa temperature and anomaly, wind direction and a whole lot of other variables so you can start understanding the patterns. And on the northern hemisphere air always circulates clockwise around high pressure systems and counterclockwise around low pressure systems. 

Edited by ArHu3

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Little change with the ext EPS so further comment superfluous

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3862400.thumb.png.0ee7786c9f72871494ec108b799a9101.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-3862400.thumb.png.d872aa463c12f681ab23a2184e923366.png

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24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Little change with the ext EPS so further comment superfluous

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3862400.thumb.png.0ee7786c9f72871494ec108b799a9101.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-3862400.thumb.png.d872aa463c12f681ab23a2184e923366.png

Not much sign of settled weather i would presume ..🙄

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the modelling seems to diverge around days 5/6 as we either get sig WAA driving quite a scandi block or a more wedgy blocking taking hold or something  else ...... yes, the vagueness is intentional! 
 

plenty of eps clusters days 7/10 so no strong feeling as to detail on knockers extended mean anomalys 

 

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not much sign of settled weather i would presume ..🙄

Wouldn't like to say as I've mentioned previously it is dangerous to attempt detail from these charts but one would not think very unsettled.

On another note the ecm is not particularly bullish vis a negative AO

ecmwf-sfc-all-ao-t_series-2739200.thumb.png.1a52dbb33be584a62ef6236866daf367.pngecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-2696000.thumb.png.883c9c3ff7c7a770b5097222c8257069.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

oMorning...

The models (usual 8-10 day caveats apply ) are beginning to forecast total AO implosion -

This is significant relating to the total decoupling of the trop & strat again.

Latest 00z heads off the scale

AEAC021C-F3EA-4EF9-8841-7E421E40C2A4.thumb.jpeg.e0b31b4c0380ef3158e1749864566e1c.jpeg

Quite a dramatic forecast chart that one if it comes off . However, I do know the persistence of the Greenland Sea / Norwegian Sea Ridge has been dominant  for some weeks now. This has in effect helped Norway to have its coldest October for 10 years. The charts below continue to show this still out to 120t with the 300mb wind jet diving on the poleward side and the upper cold intensifying to the NE. Could be a interesting first half to November with winter looking charts in the making. I will get a new snow portal forecast tomorrow morning from the team with specifics to highland Britain and locally over here , where currently it is very soggy and mild.

C

gh500_20191103_00_120.jpg

wind300kt_20191103_00_120.jpg

Edited by carinthian

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Looking at the 0z output i think there are positive signs of negativity, ergo, plenty to be positive about if you're a coldie!!😜🤡🥶😁

Edited by JON SNOW

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