Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 W3 mixed, Scandi high but Greenland low but slightly -ve anomaly over the North of continental Europe, could be a battle of airmasses.

The thing i would take most from that is that the Scandi high is the strongest signalled feature so ready with the old corporal jones upward thrust to stop the downwelling of +ve Westerlies.

Edited November 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

Well the pub run may have delivered for some here on earth, what about up there, where it matters?  Ooo la la!  GFS 18z T384 strat:

[Mark wheeler]

I’m getting a feeling of De ja vu from last year here . Most probably wrong and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time .

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well the pub run may have delivered for some here on earth, what about up there, where it matters?  Ooo la la!  GFS 18z T384 strat:

Whilst i am still not confident of anything substantial arising from it, i have to say, if it starts getting anywhere closer to the pole on subsequent runs, my interest levels will grow.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

I’m getting a feeling of De ja vu from last year here . Most probably wrong and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time .

Not sure i follow, the strat warming did happen and eventually it was a split event, it just trickled down rather than a quick wave response, that was the problem.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well the pub run may have delivered for some here on earth, what about up there, where it matters?  Ooo la la!  GFS 18z T384 strat:

 Be great if we do get a full blown ssw in November. Could bring an interesting December. At least the gfs is consistent with the warming , it started on yesterday’s 18z towards the end and now is starting around the T324 mark . So it’s getting closer . 

[Jordan S]

The output from the Gfs demonstrates nicely how blocked the next couple of weeks is looking to the north of the UK albeit fairly weak heights with the high never strong enough to give us particularly cold conditions from the north or east but there are certainly good efforts..

Something to note this run is a cold outlier atm.. one thing that is more notable for now is the persistence of low pressure systems sliding into us then stalling moving away then the next one doing the same for the next couple of weeks.. with the azores high throwing ridges to the north of us but being broken down by a weak but prevalent Atlantic flow cutting right through.. this pattern is shown all the way to the end of the run but that shouldn't really be taken too seriously as that is into the extended range plus this is the GFS so doesn't necessarily show the exact same as others but most of them have low pressure dominated weather conditions for a while yet with some form of extensive blocking. 

Just for curiosity sake the Gem has an interesting snowfall accumulation for the next 10 days this is very likely over done but eye candy for you snow lovers.. Or torture with the main snow over the continent even on this fairly wintry scenario (but a tad of realism needed for the time being)

Edited November 4, 2019 by jordan smith

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Question...

what happened to the jma extended,it seems to be stuck at 192 since the 24th Oct?

Noticed the same thing myself. Perhaps the JMA is hiding some ultra cold charts that it doesn’t want us to see... 

Looks as though the models are continuing to show a generally cool and mostly unsettled theme, particularly for Southern UK. Northern UK likely seeing some wet weather at times, too, with a chance of some high ground sleet or snow, possibly extending to lower levels on occasion.

The GFS seems to be fairly consistent with showing some kind of ridging developing in the Mid-Atlantic for next week. It’s last 3 runs being a good example of this. Maybe a chance of dragging down a cold flow from the North, providing Low Pressure does get far enough East or South-East next week, although I suspect the likes of the GFS maybe overdoing amplification in the Atlantic a bit (even though it looks feasible). Clearly though, it is certainly also possible that any blocking to the North/North-East of the UK could become more of a block directly to the East of us and perhaps bring up milder conditions from the South or South-East eventually. Not fully certain, however.

I feel like the sort of pattern the models are showing at the moment will bring about a lot of curiosity as to how it continues to develop.  

[shaky]

Latest icon!!!!icelandic/greenland wedge!!sliding lows

[knocker]

A quick glance at the latest EC weekly update through 24th Nov > 10th December.  Indications of changes in the NH profile in the first week of those dates with an Aleutian trough/ NW North America ridge and north Canada vortex/trough combination upstream, albeit the vortex not particularly intense (not forgetting the time span) Thus a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic abating somewhat in he east with some energy dispersal courtesy of positively anomalous, but weakening, ridge in eastern Europe. The percentage play vis weather would be changeable with temps around average

No significant difference in the following week

Edited November 5, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Outlook - continuing unsettled but in a colder regime than of late with surface temps trending below average

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

The low that has been dominating our weather is gradually moving east so a much sunnier and drier day for most, albeit cooler as the wind veers northerly. But still cloudy with outbreaks of rain in the south east, showers along eastern and far north coastal regions spreading a tad inland and ideal conditions for the Pembroke Dangler to flourish over Cornwall.

Overnight a continuation of showers in coastal regions otherwise a clear night with a widespread frost by morning

So Wednesday will start frosty and dry in many areas but a further upper trough has tracked south east from the tip of Greenland to merge with the one to the east and surface fronts associated with this will bring cloud and showery tracking east through the afternoon with more persistent rain into the south west by dusk

Over Wednesday night through Thursday the new surface low develops and moves east resulting in a windy showery day but with some heavy rain along the occlusion that is tracking north east

By Friday this low is now also slipping away to the south east resulting in a much better, albeit cool day with temps below average, day but there are serious developments upstream with new troughs tracking into the NW Atlantic on a very strong jet

The new trough tracks east overnight but the energy hits the buffers of the European ridge on Saturday, Never-the-less, after a clear and frosty start, with some widespread fog around the surface occlusion will make inroads east bringing cloud and rain which could fall as snow on northern hills, perhaps down to quite low levels

 

[knocker]

The overview of the next five days with the gfs is continuing unsettled but the Arctic plunge upstream does promote the Atlantic subtropical zone so once again the trough is 'trapped' over the UK.

Worth noting, vis the Arctic plunge over North America, the Stratospheric air down to around 500mb in the east

Edited November 5, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The second Arctic upstream plunge out in the unreliable is quite an astonishing affair according to the ecm det output

And results in this which of course should not be taken out of context and without the benefit if the ens at this range and indeed other model support

Edited November 5, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Morning peeps,

I don't really know what to make of today's GFS 00Z Operational, as we seem not to be headed in any particularly clear direction -- it all ends on a rather messy note:

   

And then, there are the ensembles, which suggest neither an upward nor a downward trend in temperatures:

      

And, off to the farm I go!

 

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Ed Stone

[SMU]

Morning-

Splendid ECM today with most significant undercut out of the big 3 ( GFS is close )

The sliding system Friday into Sat now struggles to get through as modelled firstly yesterday at 144 now 120 00z today

00z Today

Much less Easterly progression with snow Sat AM ( not that widespread ) This is T111

The crucial thing ( if your looking for further cold heading in from the NE as opposed to the ESE ) is the tilt of this trough at 120 over Scandi & how much CAA it can send south -

The ECM & the GEM below are the best

Where as the GFS is not as acute

So small developments up & downstream can have impacts on how cold we get.

A decent swing to cold perhaps today but still not quite fully there-

A powerful Easterly at 192 on ECM which again given a bit of tweaking could be very good with such cold uppers potentially available at that point - its better than yesterday (192) now bringing the risk of snow showers into E / NE scotland...

S

 

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomaly also has the Arctic plunge upstream promoting the Atlantic subtropical high and the subsequent relegation of the UK trough south before settling into the ext mean anomaly that has been discussed previously

 

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Pretty impressive mean w euro trough for a five day week 2 mean ......and also arctic high anoms ......

Edited November 5, 2019 by bluearmy

[Polar Maritime]

Netwx-mr take on Saturdays snow, All academic at this range..

[jules216]

No sings of the eastern European high pressure to go away even on Euro weeklies,hence above average temperatures throughout, western Europe and Scandinavia perhaps the beneficiaries of any below average temperatures. Anyway that forecast is an eternity and we can hope that anomaly can be pushed further eastwards to allow more widespread European cooling, for my location EPS suggest still +2C T850 right to the very end of extended range. Very few ensembles actually go below -6C T850 which is remarkable consistency with so many members available. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean trends even colder than last nights 12z longer term..another step in the right (cold) direction..my weathercock agrees!

Edited November 5, 2019 by JON SNOW

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Netwx-mr take on Saturdays snow, All academic at this range..

Indeed! Northern areas would likely be in for a brill treat on those charts if it’s the sort of weather you’re after, especially for those on the higher ground. 
 

(For a greedy point of view, hope to see even more disruption and even more of a stretchy-ness and negative tilt to that Low on Saturday with a chance of that possible sleet or snow getting further South - such as the Midlands or something ) 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Purga]

Looking like a cool - cold anomaly across much of northern (particularly Scandinavia) and western Europe in the next 7-10 days

Nice to see the reds away to the SE

[SMU]

06 Looking good mid term 114 

Higher pressure to the NE could filter thar deeper cold ever closer...

[swfc]

6z GFS looking ok barring those pesky heights to the east again warming out any decent 850s!!!

Edited November 5, 2019 by swfc