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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A cracking mornings runs, hopefully this follows on throughout the day.

There will be some busy animals if they’ve been watching this morning. 

DC856EAC-3DF4-4AB3-8DCC-D608DBDC61DE.png

I would have thought they’d looked at it and realised it’s so far into la la land that it’s pointless worrying about...324hrs is this morning’s biggest laugh for me! 

 

 


 

 

Edited by Beanz

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24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Must be some head scratching going on at BBC monthly outlook HQ!!

They have confidently forecast a +NAO fest for Dec..

EC/UKMO/GFS don't seem to be reading the script this morning.. 🙂

I mentioned that the cold could arrive early, this tweet supports it. So maybe the ECM last night showing the cleaner route to cold could happen.

FFBBEB73-0C7D-4D1D-9490-7725C09DDC02.png
 

The icon is also good, and has the trigger low over Iceland with the push of WAA behind it. 

9E1C5B8A-E077-4C01-A11B-E8012984BBBF.png

Edited by Ali1977

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The EC mean gives me personally grounds for optimism -

By day 9 there must be a cluster seeing the Atlantic height rise- 

Which should with any luck, block off the lows barreling through off the ES..

What a rollercoaster this is, and its only Mid November !!

FWIW hill parts of Scotland look to be in with a decent shout of some wintry weather by months end..

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1 minute ago, Beanz said:

I would have thought they’d looked at it and realised it’s so far into la la land that it’s pointless worrying about...


 

 

There is some truth in this comment.

I do get carried away at times like this , i must confess.In the cold light of day though, 144 is still FI , esp when there are cold possibilities ..so i do agree, any projected cold is lala land.

That said, i for one,all things considered, thought we would bestaring down a zonal double barrel for early Dec, now i'm not sure at all.

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A cold snap days 7-10 looks almost nailed now. Bit nervous looking at the ensembles as the GFS was a cold outlier after day 10. Let’s hope today’s run stay firm and the ensembles gradually shift towards an extended cold spell  🤞

59E0449E-F1AA-41F2-BB98-7735C056BFD4.png

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, just had a chat with the team over here. Remember this time last week they indicated a Arctic invasion was possibly the best route to break the stalemate that has for much of this month has produced very mild conditions to much of Central and Eastern Europe and less so in NW Europe. An Arctic front is a fairly rare beast to affect the British Isles but looks now a increasingly good bet by next week. In the meantime, our teams charts are closest to ECM at 168t and expect the UKMO to be showing the same with the initial change to colder air mass to be deepest into parts of Central Europe by this time next week ( our forecast temp at 2000m is -15c ) that's quite a fall from the present +2c.. The forecast charts show a transient cold ridge of high pressure over the British but its during the course of next weekend that things get interesting especially for Southern British as they think the low that engages the Arctic front could well be a bit further south. Obviously, forecasting snow that far ahead is nay impossible but the percentage is certainly increasing. Will get daily updates from the team starting tomorrow as the ski-ing season gets underway tomorrow in the region but far too warm here at the present to be enjoyable.

C

 

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@carinthian well we might be finally joining the party in central Europe, about time, but the timing would be impeccable 

Capture.PNG

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Locking this thread now, fresh one here: 

 

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