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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Looks pretty good at 120, heights quite far up I to Greenland which should aid the northerly 

    54B61569-FADF-4C96-9308-ED136F081E79.png
     

    A north easterly even!!! Not sure this will end up to well, but at 144 it looks good, still not that cold on the surface yet but if the high holds around Greenland that will come.
     

     

    D183F1E9-A7CD-4F2F-9418-D2A72FAE3691.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Gfs and ecm, 216 I'd say snap!!! :)..

    ECH1-216-1.gif

    gfsnh-0-216.png

    That is the closest I’ve ever see At 216, awesome 240 coming up 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Interested in the cross model propensity for WAA off the ne seaboard which will drive repeated raffle tickets for us .... not convinced if we are talking wedges or blocks yet ..... more likely wedges for the time being but if we can get some cold established over the continent then that could work for coldies with the jet staying fairly suppressed 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Well, well.... 

    ECH1-240.GIF?22-12

    Certainly a theme beginning to emerge across the models, if we can just get it to start counting down it could be an interesting start to Dec. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton

    Some excellent charts this morning.. 

    I always feel more happier when the MetO are singing from the same hymn sheet. 
    fingers crossed that December comes in with a huge bang. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Certainly some eyebrow raising content this morning and it would be a lovely way to start winter proper.  My only caution at the moment is that the real action is all at 240plus. Get it down to 144 and I'll be a lot more convinced rather than just interested.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

    288 is going to be seriously cold - 276 here 

    7B3CD5F7-89C4-4B36-964B-5FE5C92DF421.png
     

    This is deep Cold now. ?

    CD103A1C-32B4-43AC-B8C3-A8DD069CCC71.png

    And from a northerly.  It’s what I spoke of that the colder SSTs would support northerlies of more bite and the very rapid ice recovery reported by MIA. ECM great too

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    GFS goes into the freezer with a lovely snowstorm developing in the strong northeast flow

    509B442A-C05C-4F12-9431-9EA0AE6484DF.thumb.png.41ee07b32f30a23e4c70c89979f674b6.png

     

    An outlier towards the end but a cluster of colder scenarios gathering pace.

    E290BF5D-5C84-4F85-8837-D904E7F1D36B.thumb.png.4a116f85d9bb357f0711239d95a61466.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The good part is we know the possibility is there as the NH profile is primed for cold to flood to mid-latitudes, just the UK has missed so far. The 0z runs are therefore not necessarily pie in the sky. The removal of the Euro high will allow a ridge/high to move north somewhere in our sector, yesterday it was an Iberian High, this morning an Atlantic ridge. Who knows what will be the outcome, but clearly we are in the game:

    anim_nuh8.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    For me the positives are recurring Northern blocking and some really cold uppers moving into place to our North.

    We certainly look poised but the dream charts are yet to move into the reliable timeframe.

    The other main news story is its remaining very unsettled with further flooding in the worst hit areas!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No but look at the huge uptick in temps on both ens graphs right at the the time when the strat charts push the vortex back to canada then look at all the ens members - they follow suit with the trop vortex. In other words cold spell very possible but short lived.

    If this kicks in, and it’s still very much if as the kick off is still a week away.....I think it will reset and reset as per Blue alludes to.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Must be some head scratching going on at BBC monthly outlook HQ!!

    They have confidently forecast a +NAO fest for Dec..

    EC/UKMO/GFS don't seem to be reading the script this morning.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    ECM ENS mean at 144 looks pretty good

    5CBAC9AD-166F-47A1-AC95-D636B5763CFD.png
     

    192 shows seconds WAA attack on Greeny coming 

    3CD1EB73-E64B-4F72-B523-DAFA828D89A5.png
     

    guessing at 240 we have more of a mixed bag.

    905E6CFE-0686-4603-A0F5-94D82290CF83.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton, Staffs
  • Location: Burton, Staffs
    20 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    GFS goes into the freezer with a lovely snowstorm developing in the strong northeast flow

    509B442A-C05C-4F12-9431-9EA0AE6484DF.thumb.png.41ee07b32f30a23e4c70c89979f674b6.png

     

    An outlier towards the end but a cluster of colder scenarios gathering pace.

    E290BF5D-5C84-4F85-8837-D904E7F1D36B.thumb.png.4a116f85d9bb357f0711239d95a61466.png

     

    A lot of very mild ensembles suggesting the High to the South like yesterday later on !

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    A cracking mornings runs, hopefully this follows on throughout the day.

    There will be some busy animals if they’ve been watching this morning. 

    DC856EAC-3DF4-4AB3-8DCC-D608DBDC61DE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex/Suffolk Border
  • Location: Essex/Suffolk Border
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    A cracking mornings runs, hopefully this follows on throughout the day.

    There will be some busy animals if they’ve been watching this morning. 

    DC856EAC-3DF4-4AB3-8DCC-D608DBDC61DE.png

    I would have thought they’d looked at it and realised it’s so far into la la land that it’s pointless worrying about...324hrs is this morning’s biggest laugh for me! 

     

     


     

     

    Edited by Beanz
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Must be some head scratching going on at BBC monthly outlook HQ!!

    They have confidently forecast a +NAO fest for Dec..

    EC/UKMO/GFS don't seem to be reading the script this morning.. ?

    I mentioned that the cold could arrive early, this tweet supports it. So maybe the ECM last night showing the cleaner route to cold could happen.

    FFBBEB73-0C7D-4D1D-9490-7725C09DDC02.png
     

    The icon is also good, and has the trigger low over Iceland with the push of WAA behind it. 

    9E1C5B8A-E077-4C01-A11B-E8012984BBBF.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    The EC mean gives me personally grounds for optimism -

    By day 9 there must be a cluster seeing the Atlantic height rise- 

    Which should with any luck, block off the lows barreling through off the ES..

    What a rollercoaster this is, and its only Mid November !!

    FWIW hill parts of Scotland look to be in with a decent shout of some wintry weather by months end..

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