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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Interestingly, this was what the JMA was showing for around mid day today from around 24th October:

E1D59C40-6DBE-4946-8BA9-4E5AF7F6D6B2.thumb.gif.db864abdda9d687788cf170a9854184c.gif

A monstrous Low passing to the North of the UK with High Pressure to the South-West. A general West to North-Westerly flow. But, this is what we’ve seemed to have ended up with for today (using today’s 06Z JMA run as an idea):

0D52B74A-ADFB-4B71-A077-2AC11CD2FBBA.thumb.gif.8e30d6e3ac79bdc9d5d618629fc2fbd0.gif

Low Pressure dropping to the South of the UK pulling in a surface flow from the East over most areas (especially Northern parts) and High Pressure to our West/South-West quite amplified. Jet Stream on a more Southerly track too.

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Not your typical West to east flow that we tend to see at this time of year so can see the excitement but weather patterns can change so drastically in such a short space of time we've seen this over the years promising signals for cold fans to then fall flat but this year does look like it ticks a few coldies boxes very early this time. A lot of high pressure ridging to the north of us by day 10 on the ECM. But the flow at that point isn't particularly cold as some air from the Mediterranean is drawn into the Easterly flow. As long as we have this tendency for higher pressure to be to the north then the southern part of the UK will continue to be unsettled with the driest weather in the North. 👍

1530657123_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(2).thumb.jpg.b4f9940ffe41b3ec9204fa47b1c306ed.jpg1997277867_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(11).thumb.jpg.6437f90e31a8c6f83514a7d13bc0e76f.jpg1569867260_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_216(1).thumb.jpg.cf662bbb474d952c4c1975a9958d0df6.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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The question for me is whether we will get enough amplification in the Atlantic to start perhaps a colder and more blocked theme by the weekend and into next week. I would say the chances of wintry weather for next week is slim but by no means impossible. 

I do see the same old usual problem however of Atlantic ridges getting buckled too quickly as the jet stream starts to increase out of America. Be interesting how it all develops though I suppose. 

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And another thing on my "models bucket-list" for winter - a 1030mb Scandi high on a mean chart, this at D13:

gens-21-1-312.png

A fairly good indicator of confidence that a Scandi high might materialise.

For balance, though, worth pointing out that the synoptics to the SE are not quite as favourable and could allow a milder SE flow at the moment. Also, ECM mean much more positively tilted:

ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20191

So, on second thoughts, not enough info yet to go all-in for in a prolonged early cold spell. It's an option though!

 

 

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Much improved ukmo 12z and gfs this evening!!lows disrupting more across the uk between 120 and 144 hours!!

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1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

There are some stunning GEFS 6z members longer term if you love cold and it's great to read that the longer term signal has flipped from mild / mushy to colder / below average..all the right boxes are being ticked in the run up to winter!!👍🤡😉🥶

Your right Jon not sure if that's your name or is it Karl? 😁 a few suprises I feel are in store in the next few weeks. Got some wet conditions to get through first I feel though.. Those ensembles for my area this morning where showing some impressive rainfall spikes the longer term temperatures all over the place in the extended range that probably highlights something I said earlier about where the wind is coming from will make a big difference to temperature..although you all know that all too well 😊

835442606_ens_image(20).thumb.png.1678311f7e0ccbfcb449b0123c75a198.png

Edited by jordan smith
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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Much improved ukmo 12z and gfs this evening!!lows disrupting more across the uk between 120 and 144 hours!!

Ties in with Exeters update mate,temps generally colder than average through to early Dec 🙂

Hoping to see a scandy high on 12z GFS..

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Recalling yesterdays post RE: Snow event for Saturday is now at the 120 Marker now on the updated 12z run.

3C0C7798-3BC6-48F8-901F-AE06516971D4.thumb.png.8fd2b272dc80db139996063567f70ee5.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Recalling yesterdays post RE: Snow event for Saturday is now at the 120 Marker now on the updated 12z run.

3C0C7798-3BC6-48F8-901F-AE06516971D4.thumb.png.8fd2b272dc80db139996063567f70ee5.png

 

Wow that looks fantastic for midlands north!!sharpen that low up a bit more and we shall see snow more widely!!for once ecm please play ball tonight?😫

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If we were only a month further into winter this pattern would give an absolute dumping across northern parts!

250wind_anom_71.thumb.png.840ba6fd8b6bfd53d3c9b51dbe6a1960.pnggfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.dc538196360daca1765f593a049713be.png

Perfect slider low setup! Northern hills of course favoured & as Steve pointed out above, Saturday is the one to watch!

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A good example of upstream amplification, in particular the trough and Arctic plunge, pepping up the jet (Polar and subtropical combining) which then hits the buffers courtesy pf the European ridge

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-3387200.thumb.png.4a133e55409333a4cb6b4d05b13bebfc.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z250_speed-3387200.thumb.png.f0e3f12a7d6cc101f37360104c071c81.png144.thumb.png.3d48e6e88d9d0ae5cce744a2bc6a9f34.png

Edited by knocker
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Just a shame the trough/LP over the UK is enclosed as that prevents the cold air to the NW/N/NE from being drawn to our shores:

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.d48c9bf973f0760af9c606248ebc1864.png

So it hangs around the UK 3-4 days and warms out. With no cold to the east, although the synoptic is good, we have no cold to feed into. Even at D11 to our east no promise:

gfseu-1-288.thumb.png.254bc07e8bda59175c355280bc3ac825.png

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Just a shame the trough/LP over the UK is enclosed as that prevents the cold air to the NW/N/NE from being drawn to our shores:

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.d48c9bf973f0760af9c606248ebc1864.png

So it hangs around the UK 3-4 days and warms out. With no cold to the east, although the synoptic is good, we have no cold to feed into. Even at D11 to our east no promise:

gfseu-1-288.thumb.png.254bc07e8bda59175c355280bc3ac825.png

Indeed those euro heights are a bit of s pain.really need the cold dropping south threw eastern europe

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6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Indeed those euro heights are a bit of s pain.really need the cold dropping south threw eastern europe

I would agree with that/ The amplification of the high pressure zones is not only creating a strong westerly jet but, as you say, redistricting CAA and initiating intense WAA in eastern Europe

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3538400.thumb.png.717d970f50c9926bd2ba45f031e65abc.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-3538400.thumb.png.9f3f6701379a1d1db012141542a180c0.png

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Indeed those euro heights are a bit of s pain.really need the cold dropping south threw eastern europe

We can see where the cold goes, the usual suspects:

anim_mpf8.gif  anim_drd0.gif

Another US cold plunge next week.

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Another cold GFS op longer term, ties in with Exeter, fog frost and a bit of snow to elevated areas.

Nice to see in what is still an Autumn month.

Odds on a below average CET month growing IMO.

 

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Another cold GFS op longer term, ties in with Exeter, fog frost and a bit of snow to elevated areas.

Nice to see in what is still an Autumn month.

Odds on a below average CET month growing IMO.

 

Let's not go down the Exeter rd after last yearNW please!!!🤪🤪

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Let's not go down the Exeter rd after last yearNW please!!!🤪🤪

Haha 😄

 

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Top FI coming and the Siberian HP links with WAA up through Iceland 

A5709284-DD06-4098-A88B-3BB36B7389F9.png

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image.thumb.png.d952fdc063d9461d0a38dbace2840bd4.png

Just need this chart to countdown to T0 now 😄

For those of wanting cold foggy/frosty weather GFS 12z delivers beautifully...

Usual caveat being it is but one GFS operational of course..

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