Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[northwestsnow]

Hehehe..

GFS serves up a Dec 2010 redux..

If only !!

[Ali1977]

I mean, it’s unlikely but surely this would be a historic type storm sat over the U.K., everywhere would be cold enough for Blizzards.

A huge BOOOOOM chart this one, chance of it being there in the next run - ZERO

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[Panayiotis]

Haven’t seen a GFS run like that in a long time (check my avatar!  ) . What stands out to me is the re-amplification of the Atlantic/Greenland high ( the high that looks like a heart/fish tail) in both the ICON and GFS. There must be a strong signal being picked up by the models to increase pressure once again in this area. It’s this pressure rise that I’ll be looking out for in the GEM and ECM once they come out...

(Scroll further down for photos)

Edited November 22, 2019 by Panayiotis

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Panayiotis said:

Haven’t seen a GFS run like that in a long time. What stands out to me is the re-amplification of the Atlantic/Greenland high in both the ICON and GFS, that must be a strong signal being picked up by the models...

Lets hope so

im on nights tonigh,the 00z runs are looking good for coldies...

might be a busy day on here today  cmon ECM you can do it!!

 

[Ali1977]

There will be some happy people this morning, what a crazy run by the GFS. If ECM follows net weather will need a bigger computer . God on to a split at 336

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

There will be some happy people this morning, what a crazy run by the GFS. 

ukmo looks good at 144 with ice cold arctic air sweeping south..

Lovely..

[feb1991blizzard]

Is that a QTR from the initial warming steve (the displacement to siberian side)? ,surely not the FI warming as the FI one is pushing the SPV back towards where we dont want it.

Edited November 22, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Panayiotis]

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ukmo looks good at 144 with ice cold arctic air sweeping south..

Lovely..

The ENS don’t follow the op, not really a surprise. Big ECM this morning, it’ll be nice to have all 3 big ens on a similar wavelength- still think the cold could arrive as early as Wed night if things fall right. 

Ignore my above, I was looking at the 18z ens. There is some support to the op , non as severe.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS don’t follow the op, not really a surprise. Big ECM this morning, it’ll be nice to have all 3 big ens on a similar wavelength- still think the cold could arrive as early as Wed night if things fall right. 

 

There is a move towards it though.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a move towards it though.

Yup, I was looking at the 18z ENS - which were nothing like it. 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

Got this horrible feeling that the SSW or near SSW could knock us out of a cold spell before its got going by displacing vortex back to Canadian side.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Got this horrible feeling that the SSW or near SSW could knock us out of a cold spell before its got going by displacing vortex back to Canadian side.

The 00z runs are fab,you worry to much mate.

[tinybill]

if this comes off this place will melt down!!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The 00z runs are fab,you worry to much mate.

No but look at the huge uptick in temps on both ens graphs right at the the time when the strat charts push the vortex back to canada then look at all the ens members - they follow suit with the trop vortex. In other words cold spell very possible but short lived.

Edited November 22, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No but look at the huge uptick in temps on both ens graphs right at the the time when the strat charts push the vortex back to canada then look at all the ens members - they follow suit with the trop vortex. In other words cold spell very possible but short lived.

Mate i will be delighted with a 2 or 3 dayer ..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mate i will be delighted with a 2 or 3 dayer ..

I would but only if it resulted in a heavy snowfall!

[West is Best]

BLIMEY

Who saw the GFS 0z coming? That is a thing of great wonder to bright light, and snow, in these dark times. It's F1 but not ridiculously so. All kicks off with the jet buckling and the formation of the mid-Atlantic high ridging up to Greenland from c. T240:

 

Which beckons the north to come blow away autumn:

 

It's fair to point out that the 18z had nothing of the sort and left the UK in a conveyor belt of SW muck.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

FWIW it's hard to understand what is going on at the moment. There is undeniably a background factor which is causing a propensity for N blocking to keep recurring. My bet would be that this is solar induced. We've seen it throughout the summer. A general -NAO/AO has persevered which has bucked the trend of the preceding few years. I see it as too much of a coincidence that this has occurred at the flick of a switch at solar min- just like it did last cycle.

On to Feb's point about the warming...if the trop and strat are still disconnected, as some people say they are, why should a SPV displacement affect the trop in such a quick fashion? If the warming does have that quick of an effect then mid December we would expect the trough to lift out once again around Canada as the warming works its way around?

Edited November 22, 2019 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW it's hard to understand what is going on at the moment. There is undeniably a background factor which is causing a propensity for N blocking to keep recurring. My bet would be that this is solar induced. We've seen it throughout the summer. A general -NAO/AO has persevered which has bucked the trend of the preceding few years. I see it as too much of a coincidence that this has occurred at the flick of a switch at solar min- just like it did last cycle.

On to Feb's point about the warming...if the trop and strat are still disconnected, as some people say they are, why should a SPV displacement affect the trop in such a quick fashion?

Too much of a co-incidence if you look at the suites.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Too much of a co-incidence if you look at the suites.

Could that not just be the model erroneously assuming a connected strat/trop? Especially the way the ensembles are flipping around a bit with the ops.

Edited November 22, 2019 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

BLIMEY

Who saw the GFS 0z coming? That is a thing of great wonder to bright light, and snow, in these dark times. It's F1 but not ridiculously so. All kicks off with the jet buckling and the formation of the mid-Atlantic high ridging up to Greenland from c. T240:

 

Those images on Netweather barea striking resemblance to Dec 2010.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Could that not just be the model erroneously assuming a connected strat/trop? Especially the way the ensembles are flipping around a bit with the ops.

Could but the model acting erroneously is not what we want anyway with such a good dumping on the op.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Could but the model acting erroneously is not what we want anyway with such a good dumping on the op.

Which is exactly why I wouldn't be putting much stock in that run- it is completely different to the 18z. Laughably so.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Which is exactly why I wouldn't be putting much stock in that run- it is completely different to the 18z. Laughably so.

Yes, although its not completely without support, a near outlier but not a rank outlier.