Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Crazy FI, PV shattered and no Azores HP.

    12940AB5-194D-4BC7-B1F9-D069BAF82F13.png

    Yes a huge contrast to the GFS which at 240 hours it starts to show the Azores High picking up steam again and brewing in over the country - ECM a big contrast to this at a similar timeframe.

    image.thumb.png.016845e21d5caffe4614d1d3a6518176.png

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    But isn't the thing that this is GFSv2 (FV3 last year) , so is yet to prove it's mettle? We'll see I guess.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Now where i have i seen this before!!!

    image.thumb.png.e4dde1616d2e40c1eb781e805b591957.png

    Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    It seems to me that GFS has a bias for introducing the Azores High, it being our seasonal norm in early/mid December, in recent years anyway . At some point there will be a tipping point when we will know either way, it may just be the case that we stay just on the right side of things for it to remain cold but not very cold, like what we are experiencing now.

    If ECM is on the money though it could be a very interesting time as we go into December and winter proper. Personally I have a feeling that the GFS will switch back to cold pretty soon, but can we get the Azores high to play ball and shove off the scene completely, thats the big question.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    I just hope the DET has support from the EC ENS, who knows it may be a mild outlier with 

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    16 minutes ago, swfc said:

    What's det Feb?

    It stands for deterministic,as in deterministic run.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

    Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    You need to see the jet stream for the same time to be able to make any real decision, even then of course things may well  change. Fun to theorise though.

    Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.

    Sounds like what most of the GEFS ensembles showed, so a real possibility 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

    It's not that unusual with a deepening wave tracking ENE. I suspect gales and heavy rain would be more of a worry if it ever came to fruition

    ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5201600.thumb.png.9c45828dcfc9f0a2ac74c4b5207e7bd8.png

    192.thumb.png.c1654562da6c968763809adfdce015b9.png216.thumb.png.5da3dd6f10a79db2c017be13a920eb9e.png240.thumb.png.d09ad6a65793c2505d682f999e6d7f02.png

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?

    Yes that is generally true but it is not really possible to work out what 'may' happen based on one chart both in the sequence and just the 500-1000 surface. It is preferrable to have other charts also through the sequence, especially the 300 mb flow.

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive 

    88536827-E24E-4549-8E48-2BE8B086544D.png

    634EE59A-C130-40B2-AA64-9CF28BE08D73.png
     

    From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places  - according the the ECM anyway 

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Mean mid Atlantic ridge slightly better with slightly colder air further South than 0z.

    image.thumb.png.0c60af4ee3895f88a9348dbbd7b2643e.png

    You’d think the mean is made from on a few similar ENS charts , but to get this from 50 is crazy - there must be some really good grouping you’d think. The De bilt 15 day chart will be interesting to see, as to where we go from the 10 day mean!! 

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    You’d think the mean is made from on a few similar ENS charts , but to get this from 50 is crazy - there must be some really good grouping you’d think. The De bilt 15 day chart will be interesting to see, as to where we go from the 10 day mean!! 

     Stick to the London graph, if that is good then further North will only be better.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Yes that ECM day ten mean is a belter , hope the trend continues. ?
     

    oh and let’s not forget the op was a brilliant run too . But we can do better ?

    31FE8B9B-AA85-49FC-92BF-6171A5DADA99.png

    DAEE139B-8C59-4343-8914-D64A7F3253BC.png

    F345AB16-2FC9-4571-B6B4-2D37B2100255.png

    B8764065-18A7-4338-BEA8-907862A8A108.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Don't worry about the op being a cold outlier, the 240 mean offers hope, remember you won't see frigid runs until a few frames after that, hopefully you will get many London max's below 3c on the graph later.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM snow depth @ day 10 ?

    for any newbies we know these charts exaggerate snow depths and we expect there is a fault whereby all snow falling is accumulated, but it gives a good indication of where snow will at least fall ...according to that ECM det run 

    72F3AF36-3437-4F90-A435-5816649D00C6.jpeg

    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    If I’ve learnt one thing following the models over many winters, the model that shows the worst outcome is normally correct when it comes to getting cold to our shores ? Proceed with caution.

    I looked at the ECM 120 chart and was pretty gobsmacked, a Greenland high of sorts at just day 5, would love to see how it evolves between day 5-7 with more detail like you can on the GFS.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM snow depth @ day 10 ?

    for any newbies we know these charts exaggerate snow depths and we expect there is a fault whereby all snow falling is accumulated, but it gives a good indication of where snow will at least fall ...according to that ECM det run 

    72F3AF36-3437-4F90-A435-5816649D00C6.jpeg

    EC would be just amazing, not because of snow potential, because it would be a lovely clean cold Arctic flow for the beginning of Dec.

    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Mixed bag this weekend, some sun and some rain

      Dry with sunny spells for many on Saturday, though a band of showery rain for parts of the north and west. Heavy rain moving into eastern areas on Sunday, turning brighter in the west. Fine first half of next week, unsettled second half. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Hints of autumn. Warm sunshine for the weekend but also rain from the west

      Hints of autumn are making themselves known, fog and a coolness in the morning. Leaves beginning, slowly, to turn. But there is still warm sunshine for the weekend but also rain from the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      What is CoP26?

      CoP26 is the UN Climate Change Conference, this is the 26th Conference of Parties, in Glasgow. The Parties are issuing important NDCs, Nationally Determined Contributions, their climate plans. Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...