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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM looks cleaner north Greenland 96hr better than the ukmo.🤩

ECH1-96.gif

Yep ecm going to be boom time.

ECH1-120.gif

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yep ecm going to be boom time.

ECH1-120.gif

that's cursed it ………………..

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Just now, bluearmy said:

its 'scriceland' ………….. i know cos i think i invented it !   the 'r' is v important 😁

not to be confused with Griceland

sadly, the lack of knowledge around these geographical terms is telling ……. we rarely get the opportunity to use them for people to be aware of them !!!!  everyone knows what a festering Bartlett is!

Dont mention the B word mr B!!

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

that's cursed it ………………..

Its so much cleaner than the rest North Greenland everything is cleared i know iv jinxed it now.😅

Edited by booferking

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40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

its 'scriceland' ………….. i know cos i think i invented it !   the 'r' is v important 😁

not to be confused with Griceland

sadly, the lack of knowledge around these geographical terms is telling ……. we rarely get the opportunity to use them for people to be aware of them !!!!  everyone knows what a festering Bartlett is!

I seem to be on here too much as I know what all the terms are 😳The Euro slug is one of the classic terms I've heard alot of today. 😜 

Anyway the Gem and Gfs this evening still in rather similar agreement upto day 10 with bands of rain sweeping across the country one after the other really clocking up the rainfall totals once again.. They both show a somewhat brief northerly around day 10 before the high pressure system out West topples over the uk quickly cutting it off.. Liable to change as its a while out.. :oldgood:

Gem for Tuesday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_126.thumb.jpg.64de3f4c2a5eb6cbabf5025dcfec3972.jpg

Saturday 30th..

2094831928_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(4).thumb.jpg.48d8db1a0f21be40663f2229b0008f6e.jpg

Sunday 1st December.. 

1727775725_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(12).thumb.jpg.acfc07745a80c21a957112c7215a5eaf.jpg

Gem rainfall totals for the next 10 days below.. 

235097255_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_240(12).thumb.jpg.24b5807fa12495aecce2c7a6f45b6f14.jpg

Here's the Gfs.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_156.thumb.jpg.f3359f6fa47a5ab2064a7766ab56a3b4.jpg

815727231_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(13).thumb.jpg.ebfea5cff0da188ca3f52d08adbddd8a.jpg

GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 day's very similar to the previous rainfall accumulation updates I've posted today. 👍

917508195_precipaccum10dayukhd(22).thumb.png.d074a0719ad0976de35e5e24f4e1e0a7.png

Edited by jordan smith

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ecm/ukmo at 120,very similar.

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.c8dba420223de1c322e95872778b6af5.gifUN120-21.thumb.gif.227005b9a7793c839d6960b1eca8101b.gif

Big difference ukmo north greenland thats the issue ECM cleaner..

Screenshot_20191121-183005_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20191121-182939_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20191121-183048_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Ecm,you beauty...

at 144.

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.8af488b4ca81e63303a5c3a426a43fa6.gif

Awesome, I really wasn’t expecting that. I mean it isn’t in the bag but for now I’ll take it. 

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Or the problem could be - you only use one model. The GFS...

Only yesterday ( & the day before that ) & so on.... The zonal onslaught was coming.

How wrong that turned out to be-

Who said anything about zonal onslaught I was merely pointing out why the cold was not advocating south

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Brr chilly uppers .

image.thumb.png.e1a9e7f7e4ec421a133d88af7da8286d.png

 

Where's this come from all of a sudden!

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First boom chart for me, mainly because it’s not deep FI and has support from the UKMO, some ENS and the METO update. The ECM could have cold enough uppers for country wide snow (away from coasts) at 192 - close too it anyway.

89E8673A-785E-47C4-9ADD-182253D5785B.png

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7 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

The Euro slug is one of the classic terms I've heard alot of today 😜 

And, going by the simultaneousness of rises in both pressure and temperature, as suggested by the GEFS 12Z ensembles, you might be hearing it even more, over the coming days::shok::shok:😱

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

Need one reiterate, once again, that the GFS 12Z (just like the UKMET, ECM...mighty NAVGEM) is but one run from but one model...?:oldgrin:

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Snow showers down the east coast with this do we think ?? 

4BD379A9-1859-4522-AAD4-E7BC5A68CE15.png

7BF41276-8E69-4159-BF46-D1672FF19EE4.png

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Could do with more energy heading se at day 8 .

The high to the south needs to be cut off from linking up with the high over the UK .

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The day ten chart could be interesting too,new surge of heights into Greenland at 216.

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.14b9a5d4a778703bef482dafca915a8d.gif

Edit:-

day ten

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.642da6e71fcf954deecc7f0da21d8d85.gif

that's not bad at all.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The day ten chart could be interesting too,new surge of heights into Greenland at 216.

 

 

 

Its the football low to our West that has scuppered this run - although chilly up to a point, snow in Northern Britain possible.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the football low to our West that has scuppered this run - although chilly up to a point, snow in Northern Britain possible.

I would snatch your hand off now for EC det.. 🙂

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