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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Although a long way from being identical to the GEFS the ext EPS does pay a certain amount of homage

A fairly weak tpv Franz Joseph with trough Scandinavia with the Atlantic subtropical high ridging north west to the Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex Which results in the strong westerly flow running south of this veering a tad in the eastern Atlantic which may indicate a tendency for a N/S split over the UK with temps around average

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.40100bca477b3deba0c535218b25473b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.7e89b1b6200d1398a86c331379fdf738.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.345bf364307f3c996fd2a432715fcd3c.png

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Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 out

Just a one-off summary before disappearing once more..  I freely admit I have no interest whatsoever in attempting to fit patterns to preferred outcomes, despite my own preferences which much mor

Thanks mate 10000 over 15 years !! ? ?  

Posted Images

Worth noting that while individual model runs ebb and flow re the arrival of winter proper on the day to day det runs, that Marco Petagna's tweet yesterday suggests that longer term the Meto are keeping a watch on possible SSW down the line as suggested by some models.

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14 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Crazy Chart for November bitterly cold in Scotland with deep Frosts > Spreading South

Jet straddling Greenland.

Another trigger low to slide across dragging the colder air south- 240 will be good.

Could be snowy for the midlands !

@frosty ground ... Its just a matter of time...

94744619-F39F-4C3B-B809-C7254CB8A9F8.thumb.png.33f6530befe29edd44c697316d4682dd.png

Name checking can always come back to bite you.....

The biggest issue I can see for CAA south is the Jet is not playing ball it's tracking to the south but it's relatively flat 

gfs-5-180.png
 

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Not much change synoptic wise from 0z to 06z. The cold again close as it marches south post D8, but another relative miss. Great to see cold filling Europe so that is a start:

anim_tch6.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not much change synoptic wise from 0z to 06z. The cold again close as it marches south post D8, but another relative miss. Great to see cold filling Europe so that is a start:

anim_tch6.gif

 

Really frustrating to see, that despite the PV being absent from NE Canada and relatively higher heights around Greenland that the bitter cold looks like heading off to Greece as per normal.

Still time for a change, but the last 12 hours model watching have not been good for the cold lovers.

Edited by mountain shadow
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Really frustrating to see, that despite the PV being absent from NE Canada and relatively higher heights around Greenland that the bitter cold looks like heading off to Greece as per normal.

Still time for a change, but the last 12 hours model watching have not been good for the cold lovers.

Lots of time on are side and 120hr-144hr is fi hopefully ukmo & gem are on the ball...

UW144-21.gif

gem-0-144.png

icon-0-144.png

ECM1-144.gif

gfs-0-138.png

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^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI):

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Edited by IDO
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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?

More runs needed in FI to hopefully see some signs, if not in the trop, then in the strat so we then hopefully start getting them into the reliable - meanwhile the first round of strat warmings will fizzle out now it looks like, without an SSW, as predicted by the met office - more runs needed to hopefully see further activity, preferably Wave number 2.

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I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's nae even winter, yet!?

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18 minutes ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI?

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change ??

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More runs needed in FI to hopefully see some signs, if not in the trop, then in the strat so we then hopefully start getting them into the reliable - meanwhile the first round of strat warmings will fizzle out now it looks like, without an SSW, as predicted by the met office - more runs needed to hopefully see further activity, preferably Wave number 2.

6Z moderates the warming..

Bit of a roller coaster at the moment.Tues i was downbeat,yesterday was a bit more promising, today is a step back to Tue really.

Yes, we have a Greenland high moving forward,but we also have a crap downstream profile.I don't think there is a middle ground for early Dec- we either see enough energy in the southern arm to displace the horrid heights across Spain/France to allow for a Northerly,or we see the heights repel the projected northerly and a +NAO pattern setting up.

I think Blue touched on this earlier, i don't think its possible to make a call at the range we are talking, clearly, the BBC monthly author is of the opinion the latter scenario will play out.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?

...it is a relatively new development, though familiar from last winter, and one that clearly is quite possible. Before we write off the early part of Winter from a cold perspective, wise to see if this is transient, a feature or just giggery-pokery from the model's algorithms?

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If the mild euro slug filth later in the Gfs 6z operational is not your cup of tea, there is some wintry interest for coldies in the GEFS 6z with arctic potential early Dec!!!!???2_360_850tmp.thumb.png.0b694092af17a90cc1ca29ed7bc3375d.png12_360_850tmp.thumb.png.d91cdbc12cd86798dfcfe3ccb2a4d277.png13_366_850tmp.thumb.png.6fe6cf2a9461cd6dc31adf9882ce6181.png16_366_850tmp.thumb.png.42ace318c79bc695446efcdce69d4123.png20_366_850tmp.thumb.png.bd7574114f8e695a51dcdd4b3582715f.png

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40 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change ??

Hmmm.....

Have you looked at the output? ?

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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58 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's nae even winter, yet!?

And here are the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Ergo, the warm scenario is also an outside bet...??

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI?

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Charts at 324 and 348 hours away are not worth worrying about! 

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI?

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

If the Atlantic is being overplayed there I can see that being possible height rises NE, luckily it’s far enough away la la land. 
 

0z was a better illustration of that with height rises over the UK toppling as a trough moves down under through Scandinavia. 
 

All speculation but a drier period would be welcome. 

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