Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Beanz said:

I would have thought they’d looked at it and realised it’s so far into la la land that it’s pointless worrying about...

 

 

There is some truth in this comment.

I do get carried away at times like this , i must confess.In the cold light of day though, 144 is still FI , esp when there are cold possibilities ..so i do agree, any projected cold is lala land.

That said, i for one,all things considered, thought we would bestaring down a zonal double barrel for early Dec, now i'm not sure at all.

[frosty ground]

To get this outcome you need a jet profile like below



 

[johnholmes]

Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 outlook from them IF they remain showing similar charts over the next couple of days.

[Captain Shortwave]

Two things to look at this morning;

first the end of the month, it looks like we could see a rather raw northeasterly set in when that low clears east at day 6. Whether or not we see anything other than rain showers is dependent on how much cold air is drawn in behind the fronts. Worth watching though.

Week 2 beginning to suggest the chance of a more significant outbreak of arctic maritime air, cold enough for snow on this one but at day9/10 the usual caveats apply.

Given longer term forecasts for the pc to move to its more traditional home might pan out, but in terms of the weather for the U.K. it is just one piece of the puzzle, the are plenty of pieces lying face down at the moment. Ergo anyone calling a cold spell as short lived might be reacting a bit prematurely, we might see a significant cold outbreak... or of course no cold at all....

[Tim Bland]

A cold snap days 7-10 looks almost nailed now. Bit nervous looking at the ensembles as the GFS was a cold outlier after day 10. Let’s hope today’s run stay firm and the ensembles gradually shift towards an extended cold spell  

[booferking]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not time to post my usual anomaly charts but all 3 are now showing a block in the Greenland area with a 500 mb flow from north of west into the UK which has a trough over it. So a fairly cold 6-10 outlook from them IF they remain showing similar charts over the next couple of days.

Is that a johnholmes ramp

[carinthian]

Morning all, just had a chat with the team over here. Remember this time last week they indicated a Arctic invasion was possibly the best route to break the stalemate that has for much of this month  produced very mild conditions to much of Central and Eastern Europe and less so in NW Europe. An Arctic front is a fairly rare beast to affect the British Isles but looks now a increasingly good bet by next weekend. In the meantime, our teams charts are closest to ECM at 168t and expect the UKMO to be showing the same with the initial change to colder air mass to be deepest into parts of Central Europe by this time next week ( our forecast temp at 2000m is -15c ) that's quite a fall from the present +2c.. The forecast charts show a transient cold ridge of high pressure over the British but its during the course of next weekend that things get interesting especially for Southern British as they think the low that engages the Arctic front could well be a bit further south. Obviously, forecasting snow that far ahead is nay impossible but the percentage is certainly increasing. Will get daily updates from the team starting tomorrow as the ski-ing season gets underway tomorrow in the region but far too warm here at the present to be enjoyable.

C

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by carinthian

[jules216]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, just had a chat with the team over here. Remember this time last week they indicated a Arctic invasion was possibly the best route to break the stalemate that has for much of this month has produced very mild conditions to much of Central and Eastern Europe and less so in NW Europe. An Arctic front is a fairly rare beast to affect the British Isles but looks now a increasingly good bet by next week. In the meantime, our teams charts are closest to ECM at 168t and expect the UKMO to be showing the same with the initial change to colder air mass to be deepest into parts of Central Europe by this time next week ( our forecast temp at 2000m is -15c ) that's quite a fall from the present +2c.. The forecast charts show a transient cold ridge of high pressure over the British but its during the course of next weekend that things get interesting especially for Southern British as they think the low that engages the Arctic front could well be a bit further south. Obviously, forecasting snow that far ahead is nay impossible but the percentage is certainly increasing. Will get daily updates from the team starting tomorrow as the ski-ing season gets underway tomorrow in the region but far too warm here at the present to be enjoyable.

C

 

@carinthian well we might be finally joining the party in central Europe, about time, but the timing would be impeccable 

[Paul]

Locking this thread now, fresh one here: