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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Folks it`s only Nov 21st and we are looking/hoping at day 10 charts already, this is a little hard to take. Yes a zonal onslaught isn`t the form horse but...

Sorry mods.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC would be just amazing, not because of snow potential, because it would be a lovely clean cold Arctic flow for the beginning of Dec.

Only a transient affair though, blink and you miss it. 

1976584687_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(10).thumb.jpg.69a82c9fc96f65482d2832ea0ae07f60.jpg

1116308141_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(9).thumb.jpg.dad3a149ad772d8b9780262519a8d050.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The de-built ecm ens shows some stonkers in there with some getting below the -10 threshold with the op at the bottom of the pack too

temps/dew points

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.78a62e1ff2b3c6abf66fd797f36fc81e.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.18a3d6846eea67609ea99e09a5b68cb8.png

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange termijn verwachting van Weerplaza.

the 6-10/8-14 day cpc 500mb outlook shows a strong block into Greenland and N Canada,vortex lobe across Siberia ext into Scandinavia,azures high ridging later on from the SW

610day_03.thumb.gif.4b5bd780681f6389df33c3887267856f.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.7f34b1a091f2a2abeca07431cf95e92d.gif

Hovmoller plots show blocking to our NE,hummm!

1panel_ghgs_obs_nh_nrm.thumb.gif.b7594cfcf3221bb96a422e565193be0c.gif500gz_anomalies_nh.thumb.gif.d8dc7891a63f1debfda87ea7c1d9fe69.gif

 

a wee look at the jma 10/30 hpa strat graphs(NH) shows an uptick(slight warming),will it progress further.

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.d3f03cf3eabab8906a80a9e9928398e6.gifpole30_nh.thumb.gif.2aa84ce9431754aab1a5c0fabf00d032.gif

 

DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

it's been a great day in here today as well as some fantastic post's too,lets hope this cold snap/spell materializes as we get closer,it's been a while since we have had a cold spell early. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Only a transient affair though, blink and you miss it. 

1976584687_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(10).thumb.jpg.69a82c9fc96f65482d2832ea0ae07f60.jpg

1116308141_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(9).thumb.jpg.dad3a149ad772d8b9780262519a8d050.jpg

I wouldn’t say it’s a blink and your miss affair to be honest .A blink and your miss it is a one day toppler . T144 and the cold is into Scotland and pushed down the country unto T216 so that’s 2-3 days of quite cold uppers on the ECM 12z and it could prolong further on the next few runs ? But it’s not a done deal at day 6 plus anyhow . Could all go balls up by the morning but I hope not .

2F32AADD-8F2E-41E9-8362-644FED3DB925.png

A7BC16EA-C4F9-4C80-A263-51ADFA0D6999.png

6B0F810B-DF45-4430-BD1D-5466DC3792C6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I wouldn’t say it’s a blink and your miss affair to be honest .A blink and your miss it is a one day toppler . T144 and the cold is into Scotland and pushed down the country unto T216 so that’s 2-3 days of quite cold uppers on the ECM 12z and it could prolong further on the next few runs ? But it’s not a done deal at day 6 plus anyhow . Could all go balls up by the morning but I hope not .

2F32AADD-8F2E-41E9-8362-644FED3DB925.png

A7BC16EA-C4F9-4C80-A263-51ADFA0D6999.png

6B0F810B-DF45-4430-BD1D-5466DC3792C6.png

I was referring to the wind coming directly from the north. Not about the colder air it would bring. In any case on this particular Ecm update the cold air doesn't last too long  2 days or so before the milder air begins to come back so it is a pretty short period.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Hovmoller plots show blocking to our NE,hummm!

1panel_ghgs_obs_nh_nrm.thumb.gif.b7594cfcf3221bb96a422e565193be0c.gif500gz_anomalies_nh.thumb.gif.d8dc7891a63f1debfda87ea7c1d9fe69.gif

 

They are analysis charts not forecasts.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They are analysis charts.

Oh!,i get you,sorry i thought they where forecast charts,i just wondered into there for the first time. 

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Excellent day of model watching today, some beautiful runs and charts...however things are very far from resolved. What I've found most notable about today is the ECM's determination in keeping the unwanted Azores high at bay whilst allowing the doors to open up towards Greenland to take charge - very abnormal, however GFS says no to this scenario; though looking through to around d6, GFS differs significantly to UKMO, ICON and ECM. ICON 18z now out to d5, and while both runs are excellent for cold, there's still very big differences between the 12z and 18z (with 18z perhaps a slightly better route towards cold as it appears more open to undercutting) - to summarise many more twists and turns to come I'm sure, but there remains a massive amount to be pleased about as there has been over the last few weeks   image.thumb.png.077ecea5c1f765e644351bfcf369003c.pngimage.png

Edited by WXHerts
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

A good Ecm and you KMO up to 144H how ever I am not going to get too excited just yet if I remember right Lee we have been here before with ECM and ukmo even we had cross model agreement one time last season for the easterly and that went tits up.

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

A good Ecm and you KMO up to 144H how ever I am not going to get too excited just yet if I remember right Lee we have been here before with ECM and ukmo even we had cross model agreement one time last season for the easterly and that went tits up.

Lots of highs and lows to come this winter like every winter.will be interesting viewing.

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

We have been here before with ECM and ukmo even we had cross model agreement one time last season for the easterly and that went tits up.

This have never happened when both ECM and UKMO are showing

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh!,i get you,sorry i thought they where forecast charts,i just wondered into there for the first time. 

Yes - the first is a time series of the blocking, you can tell the second is because look at the height anomalies to the NE, they represent what is the current setup, if that had been a D10 ECM chart it would have shown much bigger high anoms to the NW and low ones to the NE.

image.thumb.png.87ad574db56f2ad680557a71b0284547.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
32 minutes ago, shotski said:

Sorry but I don’t get this ? 
This isn’t a day 10 chart or am I missing something here ?

E3D51ADB-C84D-458B-ADDF-304BE2320A0A.png

I was referring to day 10 snowfall charts and yes a promising chart you posted.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

EDH1-144.GIF?21-0

Not much teeth to the northerly at the moment moving into week 2, however look at how things are setting up. the tropospheric polar vortex consigned to Siberia, very little activity over the Canadian side at all. It would not take much to see cold air flood into Europe from the north sea with a bit more amplification in the ridge in the Atlantic and a more northerly position of the high close to Greenland. It will be interesting to see if the longwave pattern holds into December because even if this doesn't amount to much, you would probably put a bet on another northerly occurring within days of this, of course it wouldn't be just northerlies either if high pressure in the Atlantic was to collapse towards Scandinavia, again with all the cold seemingly bottled up over Siberia. 

It is going to be an interesting start to winter I suspect, I just hope reality is remotely reflective of the output we are seeing...

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
44 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Hmm wonder if I'll beat last winters 'best effort'

20190123_084838.jpg

Lol if we don’t better that this winter I think it would be time to give up on snow down this end.

anyway back to the mods before I get a telling off. Although the ecm in particular is currently looking pretty decent especially at this time of year we need to remember small changes will lead to bigger changes later on so don’t get to excited just yet.

we need to :keep right on: enjoying the models and brilliant posts in here

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

UKMO / ECM / GFS at 120 (GFS @ 114)

image.thumb.png.c5bc5a175a00ff8a5d102e4915811ca0.pngimage.thumb.png.5cb800458f89807bbd8fdfd19d94c04e.pngimage.thumb.png.16fffa506f46b39f81a0a5530db1cd2d.png 

The 18z is now fairly closely aligned to the ECM.  Interesting where this goes now!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Subtle differences at 114,stronger GHP and closed off thanks to more of an amplified trough exiting Newfoundland.

18z 114 v 12z 120

gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.ac84757221b18f957251e371f67e21fb.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.a186058945181a0130a27e98ef90a2af.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS op is an improvement on the 12z..colder uppers by day 8/9/10..

Hopefully a trend continued in the morning..

Say it again but 00z s always seem to be a downer for cold. Weird! Yes i know it sounds ridiculous,just how it feels...

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS op is an improvement on the 12z..colder uppers by day 8/9/10..

Hopefully a trend continued in the morning..

Yes slightly colder uppers as an area of low pressure rinses through and draws in colder air afterwards but it'd only last a day or so and they aren't super cold.. then again let's see what the rest of the run towards +240 brings
image.thumb.png.0ae07bd63044c0f9af768111fec867f2.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 18z is a mess but should i discard of it because it doesn't show what cold lovers want!,no but it doesn't tie in with the other models as in colder synoptic

i wont chew on any further because there is still a lot to be resolved. 

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