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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Crazy FI, PV shattered and no Azores HP.

12940AB5-194D-4BC7-B1F9-D069BAF82F13.png

Yes a huge contrast to the GFS which at 240 hours it starts to show the Azores High picking up steam again and brewing in over the country - ECM a big contrast to this at a similar timeframe.

image.thumb.png.016845e21d5caffe4614d1d3a6518176.png

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

But isn't the thing that this is GFSv2 (FV3 last year) , so is yet to prove it's mettle? We'll see I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now where i have i seen this before!!!

image.thumb.png.e4dde1616d2e40c1eb781e805b591957.png

Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

It seems to me that GFS has a bias for introducing the Azores High, it being our seasonal norm in early/mid December, in recent years anyway . At some point there will be a tipping point when we will know either way, it may just be the case that we stay just on the right side of things for it to remain cold but not very cold, like what we are experiencing now.

If ECM is on the money though it could be a very interesting time as we go into December and winter proper. Personally I have a feeling that the GFS will switch back to cold pretty soon, but can we get the Azores high to play ball and shove off the scene completely, thats the big question.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I just hope the DET has support from the EC ENS, who knows it may be a mild outlier with 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
16 minutes ago, swfc said:

What's det Feb?

It stands for deterministic,as in deterministic run.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

You need to see the jet stream for the same time to be able to make any real decision, even then of course things may well  change. Fun to theorise though.

Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.

Sounds like what most of the GEFS ensembles showed, so a real possibility 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know ??‍♂️

It's not that unusual with a deepening wave tracking ENE. I suspect gales and heavy rain would be more of a worry if it ever came to fruition

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5201600.thumb.png.9c45828dcfc9f0a2ac74c4b5207e7bd8.png

192.thumb.png.c1654562da6c968763809adfdce015b9.png216.thumb.png.5da3dd6f10a79db2c017be13a920eb9e.png240.thumb.png.d09ad6a65793c2505d682f999e6d7f02.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?

Yes that is generally true but it is not really possible to work out what 'may' happen based on one chart both in the sequence and just the 500-1000 surface. It is preferrable to have other charts also through the sequence, especially the 300 mb flow.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive 

88536827-E24E-4549-8E48-2BE8B086544D.png

634EE59A-C130-40B2-AA64-9CF28BE08D73.png
 

From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places  - according the the ECM anyway 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean mid Atlantic ridge slightly better with slightly colder air further South than 0z.

image.thumb.png.0c60af4ee3895f88a9348dbbd7b2643e.png

You’d think the mean is made from on a few similar ENS charts , but to get this from 50 is crazy - there must be some really good grouping you’d think. The De bilt 15 day chart will be interesting to see, as to where we go from the 10 day mean!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’d think the mean is made from on a few similar ENS charts , but to get this from 50 is crazy - there must be some really good grouping you’d think. The De bilt 15 day chart will be interesting to see, as to where we go from the 10 day mean!! 

 Stick to the London graph, if that is good then further North will only be better.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Yes that ECM day ten mean is a belter , hope the trend continues. . 
 

oh and let’s not forget the op was a brilliant run too . But we can do better

31FE8B9B-AA85-49FC-92BF-6171A5DADA99.png

DAEE139B-8C59-4343-8914-D64A7F3253BC.png

F345AB16-2FC9-4571-B6B4-2D37B2100255.png

B8764065-18A7-4338-BEA8-907862A8A108.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Don't worry about the op being a cold outlier, the 240 mean offers hope, remember you won't see frigid runs until a few frames after that, hopefully you will get many London max's below 3c on the graph later.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

ECM snow depth @ day 10

for any newbies we know these charts exaggerate snow depths and we expect there is a fault whereby all snow falling is accumulated, but it gives a good indication of where snow will at least fall ...according to that ECM det run 

72F3AF36-3437-4F90-A435-5816649D00C6.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

If I’ve learnt one thing following the models over many winters, the model that shows the worst outcome is normally correct when it comes to getting cold to our shores Proceed with caution.

I looked at the ECM 120 chart and was pretty gobsmacked, a Greenland high of sorts at just day 5, would love to see how it evolves between day 5-7 with more detail like you can on the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth @ day 10

for any newbies we know these charts exaggerate snow depths and we expect there is a fault whereby all snow falling is accumulated, but it gives a good indication of where snow will at least fall ...according to that ECM det run 

72F3AF36-3437-4F90-A435-5816649D00C6.jpeg

EC would be just amazing, not because of snow potential, because it would be a lovely clean cold Arctic flow for the beginning of Dec.

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