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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, IDO said:

Just frustrated, we get very few chances throughout the winter and this month has been an open invitation NH wise for UK cold, but we are seeing FI charts like this:

gfsnh-1-324.thumb.png.cfb1acc07dddaa91acb28510043af25e.png1668720874_gfsnh-0-336(5).thumb.png.08aa2ef4e125ceeafdb75bfab15a83f4.png

Its an FI chart from one model.

Think that says it all.

Not saying it will be wrong mind..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

First winter is over post on November 21st

A little harsh, but the Spanish Meto are forecasting a drier and slightly warmer 1st half of winter than norm for Iberia, so the Azores, mid-Atlantic High *may* be around for next 6-8 weeks in some form. Their Winter forecast last Winter was pretty close to the mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Short gefs ens...

graphe_ens3_fvz3.thumb.gif.92aba178de7ba8d516f311e0ae68c98c.gif

there is quiet a few heading for that -5 uppers come the end of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

A little harsh, but the Spanish Meto are forecasting a drier and slightly warmer 1st half of winter than norm for Iberia, so the Azores, mid-Atlantic High *may* be around for next 6-8 weeks in some form. Their Winter forecast last Winter was pretty close to the mark.

Strangely i thought different can't remember if it was last year are the year before but they were way off the mark must look back and see which year it was.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its an FI chart from one model.

Think that says it all.

Not saying it will be wrong mind..

Indeed it is, NWS...but so it would be, were it forecasting -15C uppers and a raging blizzard? Anyways, as a lover of warm and cold weather, it disnae really matter that much...there's an entire winter still to come!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

More cliches needed?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just need that pesky Atlantic trough to get absorbed by the Sciceland troughing and we are right in business here.

May be worth explaining what you mean by the word sciceland as some users won't know what that two word combination is. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
14 minutes ago, booferking said:

Strangely i thought different can't remember if it was last year are the year before but they were way off the mark must look back and see which year it was.

Last year the Spanish met were bang on the money with their winter forecast of drier than average winter.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

May be worth explaining what you mean by the word sciceland as some users won't know what that two word combination is. 

He is referring to Scandinavian/Iceland trough.

latest full ens,my word.

graphe_ens3_pfo8.thumb.gif.6b627b34bf9e3bec0a5216b4daa735d5.gif

off to nip out for tea just in time to get back for an epic ecm,I HOPE.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Ref the Azores high in FI, only 2 or three ENS with that scenario , the Mean is obviously a washed out mix of charts but it defo doesn’t hint at a high in that area - albeit nothing noteworthy for coldies neither 

69FFFFE1-D202-4175-A395-F6F45481CC36.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

he is referring to Scandinavian/Iceland trough.

 

Yeah I know, but for other's who won't necessarily know what these abbreviations of names mean.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Yeah I know but I meant more for people who won't necessarily know what these shortened abbreviations of names mean.

I think most do and no harm in asking, nobody bites!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

He is referring to Scandinavian/Iceland trough.

latest full ens,my word.

graphe_ens3_pfo8.thumb.gif.6b627b34bf9e3bec0a5216b4daa735d5.gif

 

A 5/6 day cold spell is starting to look more likely, maybe not snow cold,  but it will be noticeable in a northerly wind , especially up north!! 
Beyond the cold spell (if it happens) is open for anything, a standard affair is most probable but these type patterns can quickly become very cold, get the heights into Greenland and a Northerly can topple into a beast FTE in as little as 72 hours!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
15 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

May be worth explaining what you mean by the word sciceland as some users won't know what that two word combination is. 

The area of well below average heights (usually with a surface shortwave sticking out West) covering Scandinavia and Iceland.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Majority go for a toppler to usher in Dec..

The METO long range suggests a colder to start December(nice surprise as I just checked) , so the current pattern showing this does look quite likely, and I’m sure open to improvement .

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The METO long range suggests a colder to start December(nice surprise as I just checked) , so the current pattern showing this does look quite likely, and I’m sure open to improvement .

Agreed. All looks very knife edge for early Dec- we could be looking at a prolonged freeze from the north, or we could see a brief toppler and the jet being pushed north and things turning very ugly, very quickly.

We do have a ticket for the lottery at this juncture though.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The area of well below average heights (usually with a surface shortwave sticking out West) covering Scandinavia and Iceland.

I was asking on behalf of others. I knew what it mean't myself.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Missed the 12z runs and just caught up . OMG the gfs 12z was so close to a stonker . UKMO looks very good at T144 , let’s hope ECM goes the same way . Got a feeling the ECM will bring in a potent Northerly. Not long to wait . 

58E66963-077C-4080-B2CA-CC10BBFD5CEB.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Couple of observations from the 12z gfs suite

1) the Alaskan/Aleutian ridge is back big time as week 2 progresses

2) chances of at least one recurving typhoon in the nw pacific through week 2 ………….. that could have a notable effect on the NH profile if one gets effectively absorbed into the general WAA which is ahead of the building ridge  

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