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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trigger shortwave south of Greenland - here we go!

 

image.png

Yep,it's trying.

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.dc3d1815f5cf4c54a15f756e76dfbd27.png

better heights up into Greenland too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

 Proper cold lined up here, if the northerly can cling on. 

3FC37094-73A2-4930-ADFE-E60DAA1A0ABA.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just need that pesky Atlantic trough to get absorbed by the Sciceland troughing and we are right in business here.

The ICON didn't have this feature up to 180 so it will be interesting as to what happens to it on future runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Nope - age old problem again - Troughing to south of Greenland spawning small lows and shortwaves that then engage with Iceland /  scandi troughing - thats it for this run.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Azores high is doing a grand job as the UK snow / cold deflector again on GFS 12z!

Still, plenty of chopping and changing to come over the next few days IMO..

UKMO looks OK, Scotland in particular in with a good shout of a little northerly thereafter..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Azores high is doing a grand job as the UK snow / cold deflector again on GFS 12z!

Still, plenty of chopping and changing to come over the next few days IMO..

UKMO looks OK, Scotland in particular in with a good shout of a little northerly thereafter..

If carlsberg did sliders and Azores high demolishers it would be nice!! 

DAEB95B1-3386-4319-9CBB-E8244206A684.jpeg
 

FI still early, a few days yet before we know if next weekend will bring some white stuff for some!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Ukmo  shows ridging towards Greenland  ending at 144h  with a north easterly  and cold uppers primed to invade the country   

 

 

 

UN144-7.gif

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Are we on the cusp of a cold spell here,it wouldn't take much for a bit more of a southerly track of systems engaging with the cold pool to our N/NE

i know that i am ramping slightly,but there has been upgrades this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - age old problem again - Troughing to south of Greenland spawning small lows and shortwaves that then engage with Iceland /  scandi troughing - thats it for this run.

They could be trigger lows rather than spoilers but for the Iberian High that prevents the undercuts by continually popping up and deflecting the cold:

anim_uwv3.gif

With that in place we simply will be counting the days of winter as they slip away, chance after chance, even with these potential cold shots. Third run in a row with that stationary Iberian High.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Are we on the cusp of a cold spell here,it wouldn't take much for a bit more of a southerly track of systems engaging with the cold pool to our N/NE

i know that i am ramping slightly,but there has been upgrades this afternoon.

I was just coming on to say the very same thing. My refresh button on meteociel was in overdrive in he last half hour! All very finely balanced, so 24/36 hours of nail biting ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are we on the cusp of a cold spell here,it wouldn't take much for a bit more of a southerly track of systems engaging with the cold pool to our N/NE

i know that i am ramping slightly,but there has been upgrades this afternoon.

Definitely an upgrade or two yes - but also a few duffers too - not overly keen on the GFS

UKMO is out on its own slightly but looks okay on face value.

image.thumb.png.93c77eca9de716d2e84d4e0a4fde6ffa.png

Eagerly awaiting the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

They could be trigger lows rather than spoilers but for the Iberian High that prevents the undercuts by continually popping up and deflecting the cold:

 

With that in place we simply will be counting the days of winter as they slip away, chance after chance, even with these potential cold shots. Third run in a row with that stationary Iberian High.

The only way to get rid of heights to the south though is to dig a trough down there.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - age old problem again - Troughing to south of Greenland spawning small lows and shortwaves that then engage with Iceland /  scandi troughing - thats it for this run.

The issue is where the Jet is forecast to be (over the UK)

gfseu-5-264.png?12

Westerly momentum is to strong unless the Jet sinks further south which is a difficult ask when you have heights increasing to the south

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Will be interesting how EC plays out.

Coldies do need to see energy digging as far south of the UK as possible.

UKMO does look every so slightly south with this than GFS,every little helps!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The issue is where the Jet is forecast to be (over the UK)

gfseu-5-264.png?12

Westerly momentum is to strong unless the Jet sinks further south which is a difficult ask when you have heights increasing to the south

Yes - exactly - its the temperature gradient that fuels the Jet so we need cleaner ridging into Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

First winter is over post on November 21st

Just frustrated, we get very few chances throughout the winter and this month has been an open invitation NH wise for UK cold, but we are seeing FI charts like this:

gfsnh-1-324.thumb.png.cfb1acc07dddaa91acb28510043af25e.png1668720874_gfsnh-0-336(5).thumb.png.08aa2ef4e125ceeafdb75bfab15a83f4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Pick of the bunch so far has to be the UKMO ..who wouldn’t be happy to start winter with this pattern

5B71FA59-83F6-4AF8-A820-C7F40F97E002.gif

Not so good for Latvia I prefer the high riding through the UK option

Edited by Kentspur
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Just now, IDO said:

Just frustrated, we get very few chances throughout the winter and this month has been an open invitation NH wise for UK cold, but we are seeing FI charts like this:

gfsnh-1-324.thumb.png.cfb1acc07dddaa91acb28510043af25e.png1668720874_gfsnh-0-336(5).thumb.png.08aa2ef4e125ceeafdb75bfab15a83f4.png

I know mate frustrating... Just remember dont always be suckered in the GFS optical illusion.... Its backtracked so far to the UKMO already...

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