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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just to be clear. I was not making a threat. I am not arrogant enough to think I am in a position to do this

I was merely making an observation that it saddens me that there is no place in this thread for those who don't go along with 'the game' as other approaches really do not mix with this

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Right everyone get yer annual Netweather Model Output Discussion bingo cards at the ready...

1. Members ramping/dismissing any cold on the horizon. ✔️ 

2. Knocker threatening to leave the thread. ✔️

3. Doom mongers and snow mad people arguing over charts/models/long range forecasts that have about a 20% chance of becoming reality. ✔️

4. Searching for a breakdown of a cold spell while we are all in one. (Winter special) ✔️

5. Declaring a 1947, 1963 or 2010 Winter is on the way. ✔️

6


 

 

As long as we avoid a 1939 in the thread!!

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland

Love the forum, the realists, the fantasy islanders, the lot.

The only thing that gets me down is zonality at 300 hours verifying and winter wonderland failing at 36 hours. No forum member is to blame for that though. It’s just these weird little islands we call home.

Edited by Northwest NI
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
38 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

iconnh-0-180.png?21-12

So the ICON ends with a possible Northerly down the line,

iconnh-5-180.png?21-12

Unfortunately the Jet is flat and just not conducive for advocating cold air from the north. 

Hi @frosty ground apologies for my very noob question. Are veterans of this forum familiar  with charts that look like this? From my very limited lurking over the last couple of years my instinct would be towards excitement at a possible Northerly, I always thought it opened the door to the cold. It had never occurred to me that there may not be cold to tap into or that it wouldn't continue to drop south. I guess the overall westerly bias wins out? 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Why are the 12z runs nearly always better in the hunt for cold than the 00z runs.

Another poster pointed this out before and it certainly appears to be true.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Not alot of change in the outputs really, still transient height rises around Southern Greenland and the chance of some colder air trying to, come down from the North. Be quite a bit of variation from run to run so I be reluctant too say a colder shot is on the way but I don't see temperatures being well above average either. 

Must be noted no real strong Greenland high is forecast, you need a true Atlantic ridge for that, some GFS runs do forecast that but too far out to call it a possibility. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

UKMO

12z v 00z cold pool into the SE?,although we cannot see the 850's yet but i would think that that would be a colder run.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.030f56f0ab1737846778bb4453fd5432.gif585097718_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.188fb179df43a310d2034a07affe75ca.gif

Edit:i see Steve has commented on it well.^

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO

12z v 00z cold pool into the SE?,although we cannot see the 850's yet but i would think that that would be a colder run.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.030f56f0ab1737846778bb4453fd5432.gif585097718_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.188fb179df43a310d2034a07affe75ca.gif

 

Looks flatter upstream though!? - jeeze its a tough ole game getting it aligned

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs is better already at 132

cold pool into N Iceland by this point.

gfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.2607f4bb32ebf46f09c71e2f8e93ff27.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Looks flatter upstream though!? - jeeze its a tough ole game getting it aligned

Noted...

more ridging up the west side of Greenland into N Canada,should be another bite after that i would of thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Noted...

more ridging up the west side of Greenland into N Canada,should be another bite after that i would of thought.

Yep! there is  that Forum at is best when we are debating, dissecting a run as it rolls out ( granted there is an agenda in doing so for the majority on here )

 

 

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trigger shortwave south of Greenland - here we go!

 

image.png

Day 10 second bite of the cherry hopefully!! Many twists and turns around the 6 day mark with this I think. 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
36 minutes ago, Griff said:

Hi @frosty ground apologies for my very noob question. Are veterans of this forum familiar  with charts that look like this? From my very limited lurking over the last couple of years my instinct would be towards excitement at a possible Northerly, I always thought it opened the door to the cold. It had never occurred to me that there may not be cold to tap into or that it wouldn't continue to drop south. I guess the overall westerly bias wins out? 

Pretty much the cold air gets shunted to the east as it sinks south, In my very humble opinion. 
gfseu-1-192.png?12gfseu-1-198.png?12gfseu-1-204.png?12

You can see the cold air sink away south east as the momentum from the Atlantic pushes everything east.
gfseu-5-204.png?12
 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 second bite of the cherry hopefully!! Many twists and turns around the 6 day mark with this I think. 

Just need that pesky Atlantic trough to get absorbed by the Sciceland troughing and we are right in business here.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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