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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Worth noting that while individual model runs ebb and flow re the arrival of winter proper on the day to day det runs, that Marco Petagna's tweet yesterday suggests that longer term the Meto are keeping a watch on possible SSW down the line as suggested by some models.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
14 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Crazy Chart for November bitterly cold in Scotland with deep Frosts > Spreading South

Jet straddling Greenland.

Another trigger low to slide across dragging the colder air south- 240 will be good.

Could be snowy for the midlands !

@frosty ground ... Its just a matter of time...

94744619-F39F-4C3B-B809-C7254CB8A9F8.thumb.png.33f6530befe29edd44c697316d4682dd.png

Name checking can always come back to bite you.....

The biggest issue I can see for CAA south is the Jet is not playing ball it's tracking to the south but it's relatively flat 

gfs-5-180.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

GFS 00z 

Scandi assist incoming early Dec? although T+273

h500slp.thumb.png.6d6c181698808115029b887abb7e001d.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.6e6040a7d27a0f6433d14c6690abd72a.png

ukmintemp.thumb.png.d32a5e10fb71b728f2f819fc75f6cff4.pngt2mCumbria.thumb.png.eae81bface6c67b73433809c6e52be15.png

Most definately a chill especially the usual areas up in Alba  - ensembles more or less in agreement and heading the right way after next weeks warmup.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Not much change synoptic wise from 0z to 06z. The cold again close as it marches south post D8, but another relative miss. Great to see cold filling Europe so that is a start:

anim_tch6.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not much change synoptic wise from 0z to 06z. The cold again close as it marches south post D8, but another relative miss. Great to see cold filling Europe so that is a start:

anim_tch6.gif

 

Really frustrating to see, that despite the PV being absent from NE Canada and relatively higher heights around Greenland that the bitter cold looks like heading off to Greece as per normal.

Still time for a change, but the last 12 hours model watching have not been good for the cold lovers.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Really frustrating to see, that despite the PV being absent from NE Canada and relatively higher heights around Greenland that the bitter cold looks like heading off to Greece as per normal.

Still time for a change, but the last 12 hours model watching have not been good for the cold lovers.

Lots of time on are side and 120hr-144hr is fi hopefully ukmo & gem are on the ball...

UW144-21.gif

gem-0-144.png

icon-0-144.png

ECM1-144.gif

gfs-0-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI):

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?

More runs needed in FI to hopefully see some signs, if not in the trop, then in the strat so we then hopefully start getting them into the reliable - meanwhile the first round of strat warmings will fizzle out now it looks like, without an SSW, as predicted by the met office - more runs needed to hopefully see further activity, preferably Wave number 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's nae even winter, yet!

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18 minutes ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change ??

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More runs needed in FI to hopefully see some signs, if not in the trop, then in the strat so we then hopefully start getting them into the reliable - meanwhile the first round of strat warmings will fizzle out now it looks like, without an SSW, as predicted by the met office - more runs needed to hopefully see further activity, preferably Wave number 2.

6Z moderates the warming..

Bit of a roller coaster at the moment.Tues i was downbeat,yesterday was a bit more promising, today is a step back to Tue really.

Yes, we have a Greenland high moving forward,but we also have a crap downstream profile.I don't think there is a middle ground for early Dec- we either see enough energy in the southern arm to displace the horrid heights across Spain/France to allow for a Northerly,or we see the heights repel the projected northerly and a +NAO pattern setting up.

I think Blue touched on this earlier, i don't think its possible to make a call at the range we are talking, clearly, the BBC monthly author is of the opinion the latter scenario will play out.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?

...it is a relatively new development, though familiar from last winter, and one that clearly is quite possible. Before we write off the early part of Winter from a cold perspective, wise to see if this is transient, a feature or just giggery-pokery from the model's algorithms?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

If the mild euro slug filth later in the Gfs 6z operational is not your cup of tea, there is some wintry interest for coldies in the GEFS 6z with arctic potential early Dec!!!!2_360_850tmp.thumb.png.0b694092af17a90cc1ca29ed7bc3375d.png12_360_850tmp.thumb.png.d91cdbc12cd86798dfcfe3ccb2a4d277.png13_366_850tmp.thumb.png.6fe6cf2a9461cd6dc31adf9882ce6181.png16_366_850tmp.thumb.png.42ace318c79bc695446efcdce69d4123.png20_366_850tmp.thumb.png.bd7574114f8e695a51dcdd4b3582715f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
40 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change ??

Hmmm.....

Have you looked at the output? 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

The 06z is a pretty clear outlier at the end

Edinburgh

gefsens850-Edinburgh0.png

 

London

gefsens850-London0.png

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
58 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's nae even winter, yet!

And here are the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Ergo, the warm scenario is also an outside bet...?

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

Charts at 324 and 348 hours away are not worth worrying about! 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 hour ago, IDO said:

^^^ Yes, as we head into December nasty developments this morning runs (FI

0z>> 1600744056_gfsnh-0-348(3).thumb.png.3a1bf5f154eab1025f51d5cc85a2ecf0.png 06z>> 784203311_gfsnh-0-324(2).thumb.png.287f50cbf67c6430ee303362722e9585.png

High to our south bringing a waft of warmth. We do not want this to compete as the next change in pattern, although a drier period is welcome. More runs needed...

If the Atlantic is being overplayed there I can see that being possible height rises NE, luckily it’s far enough away la la land. 
 

0z was a better illustration of that with height rises over the UK toppling as a trough moves down under through Scandinavia. 
 

All speculation but a drier period would be welcome. 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's nae even winter, yet!

Those swingometers are needed..:oldgood:Although they'll malfunction at this rate. :oldlaugh:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

GFS does show heights trying to push towards the N and W around +240 hours 

image.thumb.png.a26b6390da14ae4b971e9b900d0802ae.png

Nothing quite happens though and whilst cold uppers wouldn't be too far away, by +288 the heights collapse in over and just go on to form part of a ugly looking Euro 'slug' (though this is deep into the run)

image.thumb.png.5305624b72468345e3c7f28351ae2022.png

So still some interest in regards to those heights but nothing looks too exciting to me this morning

GEFS 6z ensembles are just a traditional mix match of endless possibilities and cannot possibly be analysed with any confidence, though only a small amount go real cold

image.thumb.png.9765abd24084968ea41ea1950f57a57f.png

 

Only nice little addition this morning is a decent run by the GEM which has that area of HP to our west lying in a very favourable position to pull down some more potent Notherly winds back end of next week - in fact the heights then stick around for a good few days too 

image.thumb.png.9f29ea158cbe5b63fd6450d59870b591.png

Not sure if I have much faith in the GEM though. 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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