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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So therefore then, what happens in spain doesn't affect us so a spain forecast is irrelevant wrt the British isles?.

If it says AH in pos near Spain we are likely to receive Atlantic sourced weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

image.thumb.png.1ba46cfa4937fd2e1ae88f6824c1c573.png


That said beyond day 10 there seems to be a somewhat odd little notable cluster of very warm uppers for the time of year 

Probably due to them showing a west based -NAO I'd have thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Probably due to them showing a west based -NAO I'd have thought.

Yes well they all seem to just ramp up the Azores High really and send mild SW'lies up into the country but hey I'm not going to worry about a cluster that far out - before they even come into play we have a nice bunch of colder than average looking ensembles  - most of them pretty weak but some of them a real taste too, let's see if we can build on that.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

If that clustering showing maxes of 2 or 3c comes true then the Met Office 30 dayer will be carrying on where it left off last winter!

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

First out of the blocks Icon 0z looks like it's about to unleash some form of Northerly with heights into the tip of Greenland still

20191121_040604.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Is that high heading for a sausage shape to the NW of Scotland on UKMO 0z? I'm liking this run

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

GFS not good the Azores high the spoiler!

Doesn't show for months then soon as we hit Dec the Azores high appears again, frustrating if this run verifies

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-4294400.thumb.png.b6a67e0b9ce9fdc9d3d0cddb5e6f4d57.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.efcfd323ee93ecf49444d07b0efd6ccb.gif

A complex, negatively tilted trough, is dominating the eastern Atlantic and the associated slowly pivoting front has already brought some rain into the far south west and this will move slowly north east through the day to cover an area mid Wales > Portsmouth. There will be some heavy pulses in this. Elsewhere generally quite cloudy ad filling a tad chilly in the brisk south east wind

PPVE89.thumb.gif.5860f8b35af793c0c4709f8977df8d6c.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.8710cb5edba68314297355e55f72b42d.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.0efd7e72d5d87e7f3645df6c032114dc.png

Tonight the front will continue to pivot as the rain tracks slowly north east with perhaps some heavier bursts in the south west, courtesy of a following trough. Remaining generally cloudy with perhaps some breaks in the north west

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d2cd3f0eb77fbbacbea0019028b94996.gifprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.5d52d1e4335a28aaf6d91ff47158a298.png

The occlusion will continue to travel north through Friday, thus cloudy with outbreaks of rain in many areas, with again the north west getting the best of the weather. But whilst all this has been going on a wave has developed in the southern quadrant of the trough and is 979mb north of Coruna at midday and a stray occlusion associated with this may well bring some heavier rain to the south west. Warmer than of late

PPVI89.thumb.gif.a087b411e8cb65f41c14884ca58fae65.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.8006c581fd678610e60840c5f4bb57d0.pngprecip_d02_46.thumb.png.15be71f8fb3a3a920ac649da7f604b83.png

Over Friday night and through Saturday the low and associated fronts track north into the Channel and the UK, thus a wet and windy day in many areas. But to the to the west further troughs are tracking east across the Atlantic as high pressure starts to build over southern Greenland

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-4510400.thumb.png.08668b4a133785a35b44b5a0f9485589.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.8171ceddc2603c33e6469832f6233071.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.8b91983e61ea32afa535f5e1c9c89bea.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-4532000.thumb.png.dc26c51741fde8f64d91f8d645654abb.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-4532000.thumb.png.6603a8c057e68c434db346ce08c353d4.png

Continuing unsettled with showery rain overnight but the first trough tracking east has arrived on the scene and there is a vigorous surface low 985mb south west of Ireland by midday Sunday and heavy rain will sweep across western regions through the afternoon and evening accompanied by strong winds

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-4596800.thumb.png.7707421921e050a92a4349e256e8cf02.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.936ece7e6baac59410d419764c18dc6d.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-4640000.thumb.png.c70e1d1447c7c66e6f53e9e278f911fd.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-4618400.thumb.png.fccab0b44054081b4747be15c206a3f6.png

The low then drifts north through Monday as the energy hits the block but the movement of the occlusion north will be accompanied by a band of heavy rain Warmer than of late

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4683200.thumb.png.25195f3d894510b5ef8bdd7527ea3503.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.62e26486bb49b43458ab81dd3b23d232.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-4683200.thumb.png.9482dc383a0e6ca0297fc087decccfe4.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-4704800.thumb.png.11ab703585b505774cef281b1a43de40.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS is turning into a cold FI if quite dry, maybe the odd grain of snow down the East coast.

image.thumb.png.0a7004c935c727921077bfcaadcd932a.png

 

I stayed up to view the 0z GFS...wish I hadn't... and the GEFS are a step back too. Hello Iberian HP

image.thumb.png.83d51d1b9aa5547dd160fa057e20cf0c.png

I also noticed the strat warming is being moderated as it comes closer, with the proper warming stuck out at 300 hrs +

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs in the 5-10 period the high cell is duly established in the Greenland area but the the relationship between this and the tpv, now over northern Russia, is not conducive to cold incursions into the UK with a strong westerly upper flow facilitating trough movements east across the Atlantic

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.698a9708c39b3e5347b564ae0775dbe8.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-5158400.thumb.png.83480ecf67d6461606d45e78c0b2baa9.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.d01ec4505fe1e0079720b28eca7c3e0d.png

156.thumb.png.3c88203d41b8827159c55b4f90128c78.png180.thumb.png.730d9c7f32c6eb0c792044b30e98e65b.pngindex.thumb.png.5477e65130f3c671221be1d3bfaac6c9.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I stayed up to view the 0z GFS...wish I hadn't... and the GEFS are a step back too. Hello Iberian HP

 

I also noticed the strat warming is being moderated as it comes closer, with the proper warming stuck out at 300 hrs +

Still going strong at the top, GEFS slightly better strat wise than 18z but trop pattern not so good with a lot less colder runs and  a flatter mean.

image.thumb.png.7f3e718f70dd4f1f882f6caf491f9d10.png

 

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

When there is such differences at t144 then not much point in looking further imo. Ukmo is preferable for coldies but time will tell if it’s nearer the mark. We await ecm with interest but either way nothing resolved and we are still firmly in the game imo.

 

edit, the Gem maybe showing where ukmo would go?

32D13EC9-BB8D-4CC2-A377-192374DB0AC9.png

88B6CA96-85AF-4EDB-B3BF-FEE8C005FF33.png

BCB23932-86BB-499A-B6FA-91AB460F3B37.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yes the UKMO is a stonker.

TBF the GFS op isn't all that bad but i think even without any strat warming people are looking for more than fog and frost now even if in a mobile setup, we are nearly in December so even if blocking initially fails and we have to wait until Jan, people will be looking for snow even its with PM air or runners into the base of a sceurorthsea trough.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

this  just a snap shot from the gfs  for the all ready wet areas  of the uk  its not looking very nice to say the least

gfs-2-30.png

gfs-2-60.png

gfs-2-120.png

gfs-2-150.png

gfs-2-144.png

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Some not so subtle changes with the ext GEFS mean anomaly. We are struggling for some constituency at the moment

A rather amorphous tpv with ridges either side, but the associated trough into Europe has a much more negative tilt courtesy of the European subtropical high flexing it's muscles and ridging to connect to the trough/ridge complex over northern Canada and southern Greenland  All of which means that the upper flow over Greenland becomes far less influential and the stronger westerly arm exiting the eastern seaboard abates and backs a tad in the eastern Atlantic. This could herald a less unsettled period with temps around average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.e03bef4260d14baa3fb873a102985ad8.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.762fb5f2f5b262a5ec958eee19d58c3a.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.a89e1f167cd5fbc1a19379eaa7c3c434.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm det 5-10 mean anomaly has a slightly different interpretation

The tpv northern Russia with the trough south to Scandinavia but being kept relatively harmless by the strong flow north of the intense high cell over southern Greenland to the European ridge

Upstream a very strong Pacific jet running around a highly amplified Aleutian/west N America ridge/trough complex to then exit south of the aforementioned high cell across the Atlantic to just clip the UK. resulting in a very slack gradient to the NW/N

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.57dda9074b00a37547858222325d2e94.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4985600.thumb.png.a877a2862d29f5ee9dac3637ee98309c.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.882882c0cc24ad07d9a6ac89c99a2520.png

144.thumb.png.a445a439bba5a1d3c8fb62123032d83e.png168.thumb.png.a0da2a1d45078b5cd1af4117b673a110.png192.thumb.png.d51ad660446f92b8fd7fb95598b77251.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The pattern change of the Euro/Russian high sliding east is now after D7 but the models are still working the mechanics of what happens next. The problem we have is that the new GFS is a partner in crime with the ECM D9-D10 charts, so FI GFS op may be leading us up the garden path on a regular basis with the over-amplifying of high pressure rises. The 0z now within the D8 for the GH wedge suddenly downplaying that feature. One to watch.

JFF after D10, the pattern change, there will be height rises somewhere in the Atlantic sector, a high or maybe a ridge, it does look like the Azores High will be displaced and the GEFS favouring an Iberian High mainly or an Iberian Ridge like the op (because the GL wedge conjoins).

Not a great start to the day, but one run and we will see if it is a trend?

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a note that the 850 spreads on days 9/10 on the eps appear to be from the south rather than what most would like to see 

So a bit of a back track then the Azores high nudging in like some of them gfs runs all and all still plenty of time on are side for things to change if it's cold your chasing.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although a long way from being identical to the GEFS the ext EPS does pay a certain amount of homage

A fairly weak tpv Franz Joseph with trough Scandinavia with the Atlantic subtropical high ridging north west to the Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex Which results in the strong westerly flow running south of this veering a tad in the eastern Atlantic which may indicate a tendency for a N/S split over the UK with temps around average

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.40100bca477b3deba0c535218b25473b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.7e89b1b6200d1398a86c331379fdf738.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5504000.thumb.png.345bf364307f3c996fd2a432715fcd3c.png

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