Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Let’s see what happens shall we....there’s no ‘evidence’ until it happens

 

BFTP

You stated that the ECM at 192 would bring 'big snow' for the Midlands, when it clearly doesn't. There's no point in moving your goalposts after making a misleading post.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You stated that the ECM at 192 would bring 'big snow' for the Midlands, when it clearly doesn't. There's no point in moving your goalposts after making a misleading post.

not moving any goalposts.....lets see what happens ?

 

BFTP

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Ok it`s a day 9 chart but great to see colder air getting into Scandi, UK too to a point. 

And Latvia for my arrival on 30th!❄

[SMU]

Nice little atlantic southerly correction on the 18z making the prospect of cold from the Greenland High a sweeter option

Edited November 20, 2019 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

We certainly need an omph..

In Iberian features!

Some rapid morphing of systems will definitely aid the eye watering 'mass' e-Euro/Russian hp spread.

And tighten the door on a gaining note...

The rest out west....is working like clockwork tbh...

And the Already talked n-hem- formats are of countinued benefits...

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

Hmm. 

Did the 18z see my previous post..

 

Anyway...a little like this!!!

[tight isobar]

Lots of room for dilution.  @upstream.

Once the signal gets locked in... Not to mention to now limpet vortex circulation...where any cold weather fan.....wants to see it... Enough already.. the rest is as per an open book....going forward.

 

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

And Latvia for my arrival on 30th!❄

Are you going to Latvia ?...you should have said

18z is an upgrade on the 12z..just need the  runs to continue slight upgrades over the next 24hrs and we can wax those sledges...who needs Riga!

 

 

[Met4Cast]

This chart is incredibly frustrating to look at 

Greenland High. 

Huge Scandi trough/cold pool

UK mild because of the azores high & actually under an almost zonal pattern.

[StretfordEnd1996]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are you going to Latvia ?...you should have said

18z is an upgrade on the 12z..just need the  runs to continue slight upgrades over the next 24hrs and we can wax those sledges...who needs Riga!

 

 

Is it an upgrade? 

I'm not so sure - I mean yes okay the highs around Greenland are still there and notable and perhaps more pronounced but specifically for us in the UK it doesn't scream anything overly exciting to me - for the most part very wet and just cool 

The uppers above us just aren't for jumping into the freezer just yet. 

[mpkio2]

Hello one and all once again!!

WARNING: LONG-WINDED POST!

Well, I've finally come out of my Summer hibernation + lurking on the forum, and perhaps start to contribute by putting in my thought on my upcoming favourite season; winter.

Anywho, it's been a little up and down in here over the past few weeks, what with the roller-coaster already sterted, rolling up and down along the track at full speed.

If you don't know, I always look at the models knowing where we all stand with regards to FL, and what with the models not showing the type of patern we all wanted to see, a big turnaround occured, almost, literally appearing out of the blue with today's 12z suite:

12z 20/11 GEM: t144:

12z 20/11 GFS: t144:

12z 20/11 UKMO: t144:

12z 20/11 ECM: t144:

The reason I've been lurking through most of the season (I've been loving all the chat and excitment in here BTW! ) is that, as we all know, when a cold pattern is signalled by the GFS and none of the other models, I seem to really.....question what it's prediciting . Perhaps expereince have told me too many a time through my my time on the forums, that "If you get burnt once, you'll get burnt again" and all that, not to mention it's lower stats in verification . So I love all the "BOOM!" and the ramping posts and seeing everyone's excitement (I get excited too! ), but I know that deep down, if theres no cross model agreement, I tend to take it as all fun.

But on this occasion, on how buzzing everyone's been on the forum, I thought "It's time I awoken and got on the roller coaster too!"

ECM and UKMO look very similar too each other and when both those modles start to agree with each other (Especially with a cold patern for the UK,), I really sit up in my chair and pay attention. And great thing is that both on them look the best too!

So here I go, the models and the FL cut-off point of t144.....

Whats great is that all models have a genral concensus of a pateern, but on varyiation of the same theme/pattern: i.e. main lobe of the tPV over Russia/Siberia, height rises over Greenland, with low height under and around North-west Europe, jet stream genrally to the south and high heights around Central Europe, which is so unlike of what typical November pattern should be like! Where has that ragging Jetrstream gone!!!

This is what it was like a few years ago......

Certaintly a hudge indication of an AO+ regime!

And this is where we currently are.....

What a difference!

So what now? It's done deal?

Nope!

Now we all hope that the theme continues, the model's cross-agree on a Winter Wonderland, it gets down to 0+, and we all live happily ever after. (In my dreams!)

No, but seriously, it's just a case of watching (And preaying! )  that everything thats affecting the tPV and sPV (e.g. wQBO to eQBO, solar min and the forecasted SSW for the end Nov/beg Dec occurs,) all affects it perfecting so we can reasp a brilliant pattern ripe for cold for the UK.

I'm optimistic for the forth coming season and all the potential that it may hold, but I'm cautious....so I'm cautiously optimistic?

Yeah. What ever happens, I'm gonna get on this roller coaster - enjoy the highs and the joy, expeerince the drop and lows and everything else that comes with it, and just expereince all with everyone on here, old and new!

What ever this Winter has in store for us, let's all face it together!!

*Cue chessy music*

Until next time!

~mpkio2~

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by mpkio2

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Is it an upgrade? 

I'm not so sure - I mean yes okay the highs around Greenland are still there and notable and perhaps more pronounced but specifically for us in the UK it doesn't scream anything overly exciting to me - for the most part very wet and just cool 

The uppers above us just aren't for jumping into the freezer just yet. 

In terms of the bigger picture it is definitely better. Look at Greenland! See below 12z vs 18z. Baby steps and hopefully same as ECM within a couple of runs. 

[Met4Cast]

-15c 850hPa temperatures into Shetland on this run. Shame the azores high is having such an influence, SO close..

[damianslaw]

58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice little atlantic southerly correction on the 18z making the prospect of cold from the Greenland High a sweeter option

Repeatedly in recent weeks, the models have backed down from showing  bowling closed low pressure system barrelling through the UK, correcting these into much shallower and elongated affairs aided by a continuous southerly tracking jetstream, so not surprise to see them yet again doing this.

[Newberryone]

Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

Quite possibly...but it's the interference/diagnosis..

Well before the AZHP push....that could see a very different outcome.

Minor energy/dynamical changes...Will be of massive.. major scale prognosis.

 

 

[booferking]

Gfs control showing remarkable similarity to the EC run earlier bringing things slightly forward on timing.

Edited November 20, 2019 by booferking

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

Latest Spanish Meto indicates lower than average precipitation through December and January for Iberia, and slightly warmer than average temps. That says to me that the good old AH will be present through next couple of months, as per last Winter. Hopefully it nudges North to southern UK; better than a cool southerly jet bringing cold rain to Southern UK.

Just go into www.aemet.es and click on climate services, seasonal forecast.

[Ali1977]

The 10 day mean is really good for the time of year with -6c 850s into Scotland and -8c not far away. Should this matérialise I imagine a week today we will be feeling the bite of a cold northerly, with frosts and snow defo forecast for some. There must be some proper cold ENS 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Latest Spanish Meto indicates lower than average precipitation through December and January for Iberia, and slightly warmer than average temps. That says to me that the good old AH will be present through next couple of months, as per last Winter. Hopefully it nudges North to southern UK; better than a cool southerly jet bringing cold rain to Southern UK.

Just go into www.aemet.es and click on climate services, seasonal forecast.

You have always said though that these long range forecasts are not worth the bandwidth, so surely you cannot be confident of one of the more minor Met services in Europe to get January right at that lead time, not saying they wont of course but.............

[feb1991blizzard]

Best GEFS suite this winter yet.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have always said though that these long range forecasts are not worth the bandwidth, so surely you cannot be confident of one of the more minor Met services in Europe to get January right at that lead time, not saying they wont of course but.............

Are they "minor"? One suspects they represent Iberia, just as UK Meto are main UK forecasters. Last Winter their Winter LRF for Iberia was pretty much spot-on. So recent track record is ok.

[StretfordEnd1996]

 

A genuine selection of lower than average uppers are present in the GEFS and some of them do look rather cold at around -5 uppers (this showing for Manchester) 
That said beyond day 10 there seems to be a somewhat odd little notable cluster of very warm uppers for the time of year 

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have always said though that these long range forecasts are not worth the bandwidth, so surely you cannot be confident of one of the more minor Met services in Europe to get January right at that lead time, not saying they wont of course but.............

Only the LRFs for our wonderful isles are a waste of time, due to our geo pos.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Only the LRFs for our wonderful isles are a waste of time, due to our geo pos.

So therefore then, what happens in spain doesn't affect us so a spain forecast is irrelevant wrt the British isles?.

Edited November 20, 2019 by feb1991blizzard