Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational longer term is certainly colder than the 0z for more of the uk..great trend, hope it continues!!!!!!!!!!

[jules216]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This post was before what has been a pretty dramatic turnaround?

 

sorry didnt mean to quote this, i wanted to write a separate post but this stayed on my submit reply  area,dont know why

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

sorry didnt mean to quote this, i wanted to write a separate post but this stayed on my submit reply  area,dont know why

No worries jules..

[StretfordEnd1996]

Not for a while have I seen a +240 chart for the GFS and the ECMWF look so similar? 

ECM 30th November

GFS 30th November

 

[SMU]

This is the ECM snowfall out at 240

[feb1991blizzard]

@Steve Murr

10000 posts exactly.

[knocker]

As always it's dangerous to leap to day 9,& 10 charts when the evolution is as complex as this with two energy flows as illustrated by the surface charts with a frontal wave tracking up from the south west and another with a cold front north of Scotland

 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@Steve Murr

10000 posts exactly.

Thanks mate

10000 over 15 years !!  

 

[Tim Bland]

23 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Not for a while have I seen a +240 chart for the GFS and the ECMWF look so similar? 

ECM 30th November

GFS 30th November

 

Looks like we could be playing “north a bit..south a bit” and discussing snow to the north of that low...we hope

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is the ECM snowfall out at 240

Post 10000 can’t be accused of being a ramp. 0.1cm widely

[Methuselah]

We haven't even seen-out November yet, and winter 2010-20's already shaping up to be a Day 10 Winter Wonderland!

[Met4Cast]

There is some snow across the Midlands on the ECM though it's not exactly a whitout - Snow showers following on behind into Scotland towards the end of the run as colder air digs southwards however

But, little point in worrying about such detail in a day 10 chart. Overall trends this evening are certainly encouraging! 

[StretfordEnd1996]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like we could be playing “north a bit..south a bit” and discussing snow to the north of that low...we hope

Possibly yes - and in situations like those living here where I am slap bang in the middle of the country it can be horrid sometimes seeing -5 uppers just a few miles to the North and something much more milder just 2 miles to the South..!

In reality though it looks as though we just about manage to squeeze the -5 uppers across a fair bulk of the country at +216 hours but by +240 with that low you mentioned they seem to have warmed up a little and I'm not overly convinced that particular chart would be subjective to wintry precipitation for the majority of us - its extremely marginal 

[knocker]

Some subtle changes with ext EPS mean this evening with the vortex a bit of a mess but the Euro trough gaining some traction resulting in some strengthening of the flow around Greenland and abating of the one in the eastern atlantic. Ergo more influx of cooler air in the still complex surface analysis Much still to be resolved

 

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Possibly yes - and in situations like those living here where I am slap bang in the middle of the country it can be horrid sometimes seeing -5 uppers just a few miles to the North and something much more milder just 2 miles to the South..!

In reality though it looks as though we just about manage to squeeze the -5 uppers across a fair bulk of the country at +216 hours but by +240 with that low you mentioned they seem to have warmed up a little and I'm not overly convinced that particular chart would be subjective to wintry precipitation for the majority of us - its extremely marginal 

At that range it’s more about the bigger picture,rather than the finer details.

And the bigger picture is an increased chance of  cold Arctic airstream being established over the U.K.,but details are very uncertain at the moment.

Thats how I see things currently.

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by SLEETY

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Some subtle changes with ext EPS mean this evening with the vortex a bit of a mess but the Euro trough gaining some traction resulting in some strengthening of the flow around Greenland and abating of the one in the eastern atlantic. Ergo more influx of cooler air in the still complex surface analysis Much still to be resolved

 

Not a million miles away from being significantly below average, if the core of that Sceuro troughing would just extend further south into Central Europe, Britain would be looking at seeing some of the white stuff, especially down the East and perhaps the West coast.

[Stuie]

Ok it`s a day 9 chart but great to see colder air getting into Scandi, UK too to a point. 

[Met4Cast]

Good agreement between ECM/GFS at day 10

[Geordiesnow]

From the outputs I seen, the shallow heights around Greenland has always been there but instead of a large Atlantic low in a round ball shape, it's alot more shallow and undercutting hence the flirtation with some polar air. 

I for one do like the fact there is deep cold across the pole being forecast, in theory, if the PV splits and ends up in the right direction then the chances are any polar air might be a touch colder than it would be. 

Nevertheless, a milder spell is on the way with the lows still on a southerly track so potentially more rainfall in the areas that don't need it. 

[damianslaw]

Always need to raise an eye when the models quickly start to change in the shorter term (around 96 hr mark), as they are doing now. Yes there were hints of pressure rise over and near Greenland in recent days but nothing particularly concerted, however, there is now a definate marked projection for heights to build quite strongly here - evidence of this is already being felt in the very near term, with a longer lasting SE flow aided by the robustness of heights to the east not perhaps backing away as quickly ad expected.. the trend is therefore to something perhaps more colder as we end the month, and not necessarily a one day northerly wonder as the models have been showing in past couple of days.

Things could all flip back to the output of past couple of days, but when such developments occur in a short timescale, they often don't.. 

What do we end up with - possibly a quite odd synoptic for end of November, still with a southerly tracking jet, with potentially the polar front straddling the UK, with cold air pooling to the north, and shortwave activity to the south along the jetstream - such scenarios can make for very marked temperature contrasts and in winter, snow machines dare I say it.. however, much will depend on the strength of forcing from the north and how this interacts with heights over southern europe. A very interesting set of synoptics.

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, IDO said:

Disappointing GEFS at T180, with little support for the op run, three members have the Pacific Ridge, the rest are flat in that region as per the mean.

 

 

I’d prefer not to have the Pacific ridge return for as long as possible, so this is good. Once it returns we are likely to enter wave 1 territory. It’s gonna happen, but for me the longer we can sustain wave 2 to extend the stretch of the vortex shape then the easier it will be to knock it over later once displaced.

Elsewhere a blocky pattern for the end of the month was a logical call given MJO orbit and rise in GLAAM concurrently, but it is a bit surprising to see such a strong Greenland signal so consistently. Residual heights without an especially strong anomaly was where my thoughts were taking me....and once again his year we are looking at a solid Greenland presence.

It has to be another reason to be optimistic about this season. For all our growing knowledge of global dynamics we cannot assume that we fully understand how circulation at all levels operates (science will continue to move us forward for decades yet) and so observation remains valid I think. And observationally -NAO seems to be returning consistently. Interesting times.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Catacol

[Bruegelian]

Catacol said something interesting the other day, that it will be fascinating to see if this winter goes down the path of the LRFs , or something else entirely......

[knocker]

Given my earlier comments vis the GEFS and EPS any more is unnecessary about the NOAA this evening

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Zero evidence for that. knocker kindly provided the reality. 

Let’s see what happens shall we....there’s no ‘evidence’ until it happens

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to trend colder from the north in the mid / longer term for more and more of the uk which is in line with the operational, there are certainly encouraging signs across the models today for a wintry early december, at least for the north and I'm cautiously optimistic as things stand!!