Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 06Z 30-11-19 10 dayer snow line at 1200ft transient event with milder air from the SW though.

I've looked at FI  but not going to post........

 

[Ali1977]

Day 9 mean looks pretty good, next weekend could potentially be quite wintery for many with another small step in the right direction  - it’s trending towards that anyway. Let’s see if the METO update changes, as this isn’t deep FI now. 

[Methuselah]

Hello Sidney!  

Even for Highland Region, the influx of cold air is hardly nailed-on:

   

   

Plenty of time yet!

Edited November 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[sorepaw1]

Next weekend potential for some wintery conditions more of a northerly wind.

Below average temps.

Eastern areas seeing frequent showers 

Winter tyres on in preparation. 

[phil nw.]

It's all looking very interesting towards month end wrt to a pattern change. 

Suggestions of a northerly have been showing up on a few runs. I thought maybe a short lived one at first as the trop. vortex moved across towards Siberia with Atlantic ridging moving in after. 

Now though with continuing wave attacks on the vortex from both sides we are seeing a building trend for Greenland blocking later on. 

This along with the Siberian placement of the pv promises a greater chance of a more notable cold outbreak.

Some interesting outputs coming out now that's for sure. 

 

 

 

[Jordan S]

Afternoon

Got some Ecmwf,Gem and Gfs snapshots below.. 

Ecmwf..

22nd..

23rd..

25th.. 

27th..

30th..

Gem..

23rd..

25th..

27th..

29th..

30th..

GFS..

23rd..

25th..

27th..

29th..

30th..

A slow transition to more unsettled conditions they all agree on the overall pattern around the UK with higher pressure continuing to influence close to Greenland forcing the jet south with low pressure systems being the main driver of our weather which means frequent spells of rain with sunshine and showers in quiter interludes with temperatures higher than recently although colder air is never too far away especially by day 10 though that is too far out to have too much confidence yet.. there are some rather interesting very wintry scenarios being churned out by the GFS model past day 10 but shouldn't be taken seriously at all at this stage but fun to look at I'm sure.

Will use Gfs for a little more detail.. 

Rain for the far west today elsewhere dry this is the case for tonight too the rain will push westwards into tomorrow morning but then by tomorrow afternoon and evening it finally starts to push northeast through much of the country but mainly showery bursts of rain nothing particularly heavy indicated atm apart from the far west of the UK.. 

Thursday morning and evening..

Friday showery areas of rain push northwards but some dry spells too particularly for the far East temperatures milder than recently.

Then a more organised area of rain courtesy of the low pressure system responsible for the weather front today pushes North into most of England and Wales during Saturday this heavier more widely winds turn to the east as this low pressure system pushes north most parts perhaps wet until evening. 

Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon..

Sunday is looking mostly dry though atm apart from some patchy rain for Scotland but even here not that wet with drier spells. 

Monday looking much more unsettled once again as more bands of rain push across the country as low pressure moves into the west.. winds are now blowing from the west at this point with quite windy conditions too. 

Monday 25th midday..

A ridge of higher pressure for the UK in between rain bearing systems for Tuesday means atm it's mostly dry with some sunshine. 

Tuesday 26th midday..

But by tuesday night the next frontal system pushes swiftly across the country giving a wet start to Wednesday morning.. 

Wednesday 27th..

Then beyond that the Gfs continues the unsettled theme with more rain and perhaps strong winds too at times but there will be drier and sunnier weather in between.. Staying fairly mild particularly for the south until day 10 when the Gfs then shows colder northerly winds beginning to effect the country but this is subject to change.

GFS rainfall totals for the next 10 day's..Wettest for Western areas.

Gem rainfall totals for the next 10 day's..

Similar to the Gfs.. 

Finally the Gem and Gfs ensembles.. 

Gem ensembles show a milder trend for a time turning unsettled too by next week plenty of rainfall.. 

The upper air temperature differential during the latter stages of the updates are very big some very mild ensembles but also a few pretty cold ones which seem to cancel each other out enough for the mean to be around average.. That red ensemble member really wants to raise the upper air temperature nearly off the Chart! 

GFS ensembles not too dissimilar.. 

The operational Gfs has very big rainfall spikes at the end of the period this is associated with some significant snow in places too but as you can see not well supported as you would expect that far out. 

[MR EXTREMES]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It's all looking very interesting towards month end wrt to a pattern change. 

Suggestions of a northerly have been showing up on a few runs. I thought maybe a short lived one at first as the trop. vortex moved across towards Siberia with Atlantic ridging moving in after. 

Now though with continuing wave attacks on the vortex from both sides we are seeing a building trend for Greenland blocking later on. 

This along with the Siberian placement of the pv promises a greater chance of a more notable cold outbreak.

Some interesting outputs coming out now that's for sure. 

 

 

 

to add to this all models do have this greenland area with promise of heights.

and as you rightly say the pv is on the ropes with ongoing wave attacks.

this morning both gfs models backed of from a strat event not completely.

one run later its strengthened i've had a look at nasa model the jma and nav gem on the strat side of modeling all theses have not strat event but then they don't go out as far as the more main models.

now there is however warming going on not substantial but more in the form of wave breaking which is nice to see.

i've been strongly onside of the wedge into southern greenland.

possible that these heights may increase further and that neg nao and ao could well plummet into december.

especially if we get a warming event in the strat.

 

[Ali1977]

Day 8 from the ECM, GEM and GEF. All decent but the ECM looks best with regards heights towards Greenland and a really good chance of a potent Northerly. I’ve stayed pretty confident of a cold end to the month over the last week or so so today’s switch towards that has been nice, will we keep the trend, lose it, or open the Arctic doors on the 12z I wonder. Fingers are crossed.

[ALL ABOARD]

And so the train rolls on.

Icon 120.

Better heights into Greenland.

[Mike Poole]

Is it just me or are things moving a bit fast??  

ICON rolling and here's T126 on the 12z and T132 for comparison on the 6z, and this Greenland block scenario is suddenly looking a major player:

[Jordan S]

10 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Fantastic post for a learner Thankyou 

Thankyou You're welcome glad you like them. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by jordan smith

[tight isobar]

Ignore button..check.

Simple posting for the highly strung- check !!!

 

A definitive sway to a 'perhaps'- notable outbreak at months end.

 

And quickly...simply atm.

The oscillation/blocking traits are certainly aligned more favourable, as we approach the upper mentioned period ^^^..

Favourable arming/waa...around the Greenland junction notched up as we gain.

 

And with momentum CAA also becoming a favourable solution into the NW-Euro part.

 

Edit:=hope this wasn't of too much gibberish....for some!!!!!

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by tight isobar

[Kentspur]

Early days but I'm liking the look of where were heading on GFS and especially the UKMO 12z so far Greenland area looks an improvement to me, and is that some trough disruption heading through Italy?

Edited November 20, 2019 by Kentspur

[Mike Poole]

It looks to me like we've had a seismic shift in the model output today, Greenland here we come, here UKMO 12z at T96:

And the NAM strat plot from the GFS 0z is significant here too

And what is interesting as well is that if this happens, it is not led by the strat.

[Man With Beard]

Some useful comments on the EC clusters earlier on - there is some mystery behind how the clusters are composed, but my best guess has always been that the anomaly colours represent the average of the clusters, whilst the 500mb lines show an example of a run from within the cluster - whether I am right or wrong, the best way imo to view the clusters is as a "ball-park figure" rather than something very determinate, unless all clusters are broadly similar.

Looking at the T300 clusters, then, my "ball-park" guide would be that we need to look NW for the behaviour of the ridge, and also SE for the extent of ridging into Europe. NW heights will encourage the PV to drop on the eastern flank. Cluster 5 shows a pattern where NW heights are so strong and extensive through the N Atlantic that a major cold incursion would probably hit the UK. Other clusters, though, maintain stronger heights towards Europe. This makes it much more likely that a colder flow would get cut-off before reaching the UK (not impossible, e.g. cluster 2, which might allow so fairly potent PM air to reach northern parts).  

But even here I'm being too detailed. Big picture: heights to the NW are brewing in some shape or form for the turn of the month. Heights to the SE may also form. Cold an option, by no means a certainty, and actually a fairly even chance of a well-below average start to the month or a well-above average start to the month.

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It looks to me like we've had a seismic shift in the model output today, Greenland here we come, here UKMO 12z at T96:

And the NAM strat plot from the GFS 0z is significant here too

And what is interesting as well is that if this happens, it is not led by the strat.

Definitely @mikepoole

Trawling through upper/lower dynamical data...the sway Is most certainly on...

 

I feel some GREAT modelling viewing on on the doorstep...And more importantly....some eventual gains overhead!-

@in real time

Edited November 20, 2019 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144.    Greenland high.  

Big time!

[tight isobar]

Without quoting/commenting via run 2 run..

The gfs this evening getting there...although with the large lobe vortex...any phasing issues around upper Greenland ...should soon become a clearer path through the suites..

 

And Atlantic ejected waves/systems...Will likely be very short lived features!= leaving open access 'further in that domain.

All is good...very good as we stand!!

[Allseasons-Si]

We have a split flow over the Gin corridor area just where we want it,i feel a better run/upgrade coming,

also of late(into fl on the gfs/gefs) there is some bizarre movements over the NH,not your default west>east movement,prob due to the warming maybe?

Edited November 20, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

Could be better, looks like it could get better, and -10c uppers still into Scotland. Looking Fwd to the ENS on this run, might get Scotland into the -5c mean region for the first time - albeit still 9 days out!!  

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks a big upgrade this evening...

Greeny high baby, nice to see you !!!

[knocker]

Through next week the gfs is all about running troughs around the vortex; establishing the Greenland ridge and then the energy distribution with the main arm across the Atlantic

Edited November 20, 2019 by knocker

[Bullseye]

Interesting output so far today, has something shifted to take us away from the persistent +NAO from around 2012/2013 until earlier this year? Few ideas going around solar activity now more or less at solar minimum and this is turn is allowing for more impact on trop & strat, especially with the progression to a EQBO not expected till January. Consistency key as always here.

[northwestsnow]

NH plot on UKMO 144..

Vortex distressed?

[coldwinter]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We have a split flow over the Gin corridor area just where we want it,i feel a better run/upgrade coming,

also of late(into fl on the gfs/gefs) there is some bizarre movements over the NH,not your default west>east movement,prob due to the warming maybe?

No proper split flow however, you want part of the jet going through the Labrador sea through Baffin bay and then back down the other side of Greenland, with the other part going under, that's when we get the super Greenland highs. Let's see if we can squeeze out this pattern enough to get the proper cold to the UK