Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[SLEETY]

If p11 come to fruition i’m going to visit Cairngorms!

Nice to see the models have continued to show the same trend they were showing yesterday.This time though the trough sinks South,and we get the Northerly.

Roll on the next runs..

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante ....

might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......

 

Upstream looks decent, downstream however...

[Methuselah]

Well then, after so many weeks' coldish, wet clag...whichever way this goes, I'll take it!

   

Not forgetting of course, that by this stage, we're already stranded on the Fantasy Island Express!

[booferking]

A bit of consistency from the Icon dare i say it if not slightly better heights Greenland 06z vs 00z.

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 00z

Talk about taking the rough with the smooth - maxima temps pushing into double figures 25-11-2019 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[Iceaxecrampon]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then, after so many weeks' coldish, wet clag...whichever way this goes, I'll take it!

   

Not forgetting of course, that by this stage, we're already stranded on the Fantasy Island Express!

Nice - but.......

Stranded and definately Crag Fast at the moment

[Frosty.]

I think it's fair to say the Ecm 0z is looking a lot brighter for coldies longer term compared to recent runs, let's hope it's not another false dawn and that early december delivers what the majority crave..which is cold and snow!!!!!!!

 

[ALL ABOARD]

Much better heights into Greenland at 150.

Definitely trending the right way.

[Ali1977]

Look at the flow around Iceland , this looks much better with regards a Northerly outbreak at day 8-10

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Look at the flow around Iceland , this looks much better with regards a Northerly outbreak at day 8-10

Upstream looks OK, we have to keep an eye on what is happening to our south though.We need energy digging to Europe ..

edit, should say, coldies need energy digging into Europe.

Edited November 20, 2019 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

I wouldn't worry to much past 144hr on the GFS this is the point were models are starting to firm up 144hr.

PS maybe have a wee sneak peek at the strat warming in the GFS FI.

Edited November 20, 2019 by booferking

[ALL ABOARD]

The persistence of heights in and around Greenland in the continued model output is frankly remarkable.

The Atlantic is dead at a time when it should be ramping up.

Also there is no appetite for the vortex to set up shop where it usually does,

 

 

[IDO]

So good news; at T192 still solid consistency with a Pacific Ridge:

D8>>   D12>> 

As per the last couple of days, signs of Pacific cut-off low, so although not a static Pacific wave, we get locked in warmth mid to high latitude in that region. On this occasion it again translates to raw cold entering the US states:

As per usual with the US trough there follows a sympathetic wave and the UK fights opposing forces to be in the prime target for the following trough.

By T336 still locked in Pacific warmth and no doubt great for stratospheric forcing:

 

Great synoptic for entering December and if we get some luck maybe some UK cold (usual caveats at that range)?

Edited November 20, 2019 by IDO

[Methuselah]

And Fantasy Island would certainly be living-up to its name: from -20C in Highland glens to +15C, in SW England...?

   

[Met4Cast]

The ECM only just has snow making it into Scotland by 240 so while the overall pattern is impressive, it doesn't quite go out far enough for the UK to see the benefits

The EC clusters though are fantastic, just about all of them showing some form of block

[northwestsnow]

GFS splits that vortex a treat on this run...

Euro heights draining away at the end.

Makes me feel better after reading that ghastly BBC monthly update..

[weirpig]

If this were to happen then surely only a mater of time before the gates are well and truly opened.

[booferking]

I know i said shouldn't look past 144hr but..

[adrianh]

GFS does consistently want to try to build a negatively tilted ridge up into Greenland in the first week of December and the high pressure to our East is moving away enough for us to benefit. Whether it plays out that way is another matter of course but there is certainly the potential for a good start to Winter (if you like cold).

[feb1991blizzard]

Looking like a slight upgrade as well on the GEFS in the early stages of the run in terms of the chances of a Northerly.

[knocker]

An example illustrating why I find the clusters very often tricky to evaluate. The 240 surface analysis with the cold front Iceland > Faeroes and five sets of clusters

[bluearmy]

The ec ext eps mean 9/14 and the clusters are certainly  promising for coldies but may have things a bit to the west ( Certainly  the  further south you are) 

maybe best to let the nwp find its way for a few runs as it trends in a fair tangent to what it was showing yesterday 

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

An example illustrating why I find the clusters very often tricky to evaluate. The 240 surface analysis with the cold front Iceland > Faeroes and five sets of clusters

It’s never easy when ons shows mslp and the other heights ...... of course there is a correlation but it can be very nuanced 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec ext eps mean 9/14 and the clusters are certainly  promising for coldies but may have things a bit to the west ( Certainly  the  further south you are) 

maybe best to let the nwp find its way for a few runs as it trends in a fair tangent to what it was showing yesterday 

 

The evolution will certainly be interesting with a lot riding on the position and orientation of the vortex/trough and the structure and position of the block in the Greenland area methinks

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s never easy when ons shows mslp and the other heights ...... of course there is a correlation but it can be very nuanced 

Very true b, which is why I always stress taking a lot of care and building up experience of any relationships between 500 mb anomaly charts and the correlation, OR otherwise, with a synoptic chart for a specific time on a specific day.