Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

Ironically not quite as warm in the stratosphere this GFS run but a nice Northerly showing up a the surface.

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically not quite as warm in the stratosphere this GFS run but a nice Northerly showing up a the surface.

Interesting chart , I think the strat will still be toasty in FI

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Still some frost and pockets of fog around this morning but generally nothing like yesterday and in most places today will be generally cloudy and dry but not feeling overly warm in the stiffening breeze The exception being  coastal regions in the west where a decaying front will bring rain, with some heavy pulses this morning, before becoming light and patchy through the day

Generally cloudy and breezy tonight but rain will start to effect the far south west from the next front as the main trough becomes negatively titled

It will remain dry in most areas on Thursday but again not overly warm in the fresh south easterly wind and the rain will ingress further north east through the day to reach a line N. Wales > Brighton, To the west further troughs have joined the party and a complex low pressure area covers much of the eastern atlantic

Overnight and through Friday the complexity continues with a wave developing in the southern quadrant of the trough to be 979mb near Coruna by midday. And an occlusion associated with another little wave will track north up the country accompanied by a band of showery rain. Warmer than of late

By Saturday the Coruna low is over south west France but the associated fronts are effecting the country so a day of showers, longer periods of rain, and sunny intervals

By Sunday the low has lost it's identity but the decaying front will still bring the odd shower but generally a much drier day.To the west another trough has tracked east to be west of Ireland and the associated frontal system will bring rain and strong winds over late Sunday and through Monday

[knocker]

By now the NH pattern is emerging as expected with troughs running around the vortex over north Russia; the ridge developing southern Greenland and the unimpeded trough pathway across the Atlantic as the block in the east has gone.Thus continuing unsettled, Some spot charts

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to wait for the overnight ens suites before dismissing it completely then.

6/7 including the DET follow the ICON ish!! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

6/7 including the DET follow the ICON ish!! 

Yes - don;t like the way the ensembles have downgraded the strat warming though.

[Ali1977]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - don;t like the way the ensembles have downgraded the strat warming though.

It’s still there but maybe not quite as strong, and not sure it has much support from the bigger guns in that genre!! Still, get it towards 240 and we may be in with a shout of some sort of pattern change away from what seasonal predictions say and it could tie in with Xmas if we are lucky (coldies) - although I see the CFS has changed for Jan.

On a positive note it’s nice to see the Op and ENS have dropped the idea of a big stubborn looking HP over France - we, nor the ski fraternity need that in December !! 

 

 

Day 10 ENS mean still hinting at a chance of a Northerly.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

The salient points of the ext GEFS

The vortex Franz Joseph Land with associated trough a tad further east with ridge in the western Arctic.

This results in a rather more pronounced Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex resulting in the westerly upper flow across the Atlantic being a tad further south, But in addition there is now an additional flow across northern Greenland to the trough in the east

Continuing unsettled but with perhaps some tricky day-to -day surface vagaries courtesy of the twin flows  Temps generally around average

Edited November 20, 2019 by knocker

[SMU]

Morning....

@feb1991blizzard

ECM looking very good on the NH...

Could be latching on to a QTR pre the strat warming - timeline looks good

[booferking]

The light switch is on moment ICON ECM UKMO all starting to take shape now.

[booferking]

ECM finishes primed and ready could we actual have a proper wintry Dec for a change.

[Man With Beard]

Too far out to take seriously, but this morning's ECM finishes in an explosive position, with the PV upstream and not far away

[Jamie M]

 I see a prolonged cold spell setting up.  

Edited November 20, 2019 by HerneBayWX

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All looking good this morning synoptically, with target period end of the month ready for December, however that’s still 8-10 days away.  GFS shows my little issue I placed on seasonal outlook (Northerlies not getting far enough south) with a marked boundary of cold and mild air over the U.K.  ECM, GEM and UKMO all nice.  Very interesting week ahead to see if this consolidated or wobbles away.

 

BFTP

[WxHerts]

6 minutes ago, HerneBayWX said:

 I see a prolonged cold spell setting up.  

Now now need to see be seeing far more runs than just this, however it’s true that yes, if this chart were to come off then we’d likely be heading into quite a prolonged cold spell - all looking very ominous to our north. It’s also true that there’s been significant model convergence this morning up to around d7 (bar GFS), seeing pressure being put in all the right places now  

[Duane S.]

00Zs raising an eyebrow or two this morning.

The ECM does indeed look primed. Not your standard Northern Hemisphere, that’s for sure. Sort of reminds me of this beauty...

Edit: I should’ve added.. which lead of course to this 2 days later

Edited November 20, 2019 by s4lancia

[bluearmy]

Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante ....

might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......

 

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

00Zs raising an eyebrow or two this morning.

The ECM does indeed look primed. Not your standard Northern Hemisphere, that’s for sure. Sort of reminds me of this beauty...

T144 ukmo and ecm. Ecm at t240 is nice viewing but if it were to look like ukmo at t144 would there not be to much energy coming from the north west or west that we wouldn’t get to t240? S4, you tease, I remember the outcome of that chart very well

Edited November 20, 2019 by That ECM

[jules216]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante ....

might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......

 

Lets hope we don´t end up here with west based NAO and waste the cold potential which will plunge between Iceland and Ireland.

[knocker]

The adjustment of the ext EPS is much along the lines of the GEFS in some respects

The EPS still retains the vortex over northern Russia with no intrusion of a ridge into the western Arctic but does adjust the alignment of the Canada/Greenland trough/ridge combination which pushes the strong westerly upper flow a tad further south but also initiates another flow across Greenland (similar to the GEFS)  which allows slightly colder air into the surface analysis which remains unsettled with temps around average but a likely N/S variation

Edited November 20, 2019 by knocker

[Decemberof2010]

ECM Mean at 240h

 

 

[IDO]

Nice to see the ECM showing the pattern change from Euro ridge/high to euro trough within the 10 day window. Early days, as looking at the GEFS yesterday they were clueless, and the 06z add little direction to how the next pattern develops. The GEFS still working out the pace of the Euro high easing east and where the other wave forces occur in our Atlantic sector.

JFF D12 GEFS:

Really as others have said, a welcome possible change in pattern, but as always models can over react in such cases, so a watching brief to await clarity.

[Ali1977]

Step away for an hour and things go right for coldies, maybe I should step away for a week then we’ll have a beast lined up 

[carinthian]

On 16/11/2019 at 07:41, carinthian said:

Morning all , looks like main models all in agreement at 144t. A tremendous battle going on as the NW European trough battles against the monster block to the East. A slow rose in temps to near normal by mid- weeks looks on the card but forecasting rain amounts and exact location difficult to forecast. Beyond that period out to 240t very uncertain how things will resolve but some thought from our experts heading for a Arctic incursion to break the impass. We will see. 

C

Morning all just out of interest I have now got an up -date from our team with their thoughts going forward and I refer to the contents of the post sent last Saturday regarding a possible Arctic incursion. They expect a rather complicated set up over the British Isles over this coming weekend. There is a fair amount uncertainty how far the rain will now move north into the British Isles. Their own charts show limited progress. I asked about their previous thoughts about heading towards an Arctic incursion to break the impass. Their own models develops a active and pronounced Polar Front to move through much of NW Europe followed by Arctic sourced airmass ,especially in the British Isles by day 10. Hope they are correct for you many cold fans on here. Meanwhile mild and slushY here in the Eastern Alps, not very nice.

C

[booferking]

43 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nice to see the ECM showing the pattern change from Euro ridge/high to euro trough within the 10 day window. Early days, as looking at the GEFS yesterday they were clueless, and the 06z add little direction to how the next pattern develops. The GEFS still working out the pace of the Euro high easing east and where the other wave forces occur in our Atlantic sector.

JFF D12 GEFS:

Really as others have said, a welcome possible change in pattern, but as always models can over react in such cases, so a watching brief to await clarity.

P11 please.