Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Anything to add to those images, or do people have to guess?

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Similar but slightly better heights around Greenland on GEM.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z has got me dreaming of a white..early december..please make it so..I mean snow!!!!❄

[MR EXTREMES]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Similar but slightly better heights around Greenland on GEM.

heights are having ago around greenland.

the azores heights are suppressed.

but more interesting is the disrupting of the vortex so jet stream also maintaining a more southerly type location.

pretty unsettled for awhile longer.

[MR EXTREMES]

disruptive block greenland area.

looking good. 

[ArHu3]

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Edited November 19, 2019 by ArHu3

[jonboy]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before

And we know how cold some of those winters where!!!

[Jordan S]

Here's an animated Gif of the Ecmwf upper air temperatures for the next 7 days.. 

Starts cold turns milder and then stays mostly mild..

GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 days animated gif below wettest in the west with over 80mm but further east only 10-30mm highlighting the slow progress of the fronts in the next few days to push eastwards giving Western areas rain for longest.. Don't take too literally liable to change slightly in the coming days..

Edited November 19, 2019 by jordan smith

[SLEETY]

11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Close to something mega their,if that trough had dropped to the South.Some very cold uppers to our North.Looking good in the long term!

Instead we get the wretched Azores High deciding to join the party at the wrong time.Typical as we head into December!

Edited November 19, 2019 by SLEETY

[knocker]

The ecm looking unsettled next week as troughs track east across the Atlantic Of course the detail is subject to change

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

[booferking]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

Looked interesting early on then goes pete tong.

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

And it does make you wonder if this is indeed one of the key facts in play here, that the usual growth of ice and the cooling trend are behind the mark this year. Maybe, just maybe life returns to normal in a few weeks and all the possibilities just fizzle. Maybe..

[Dorsetbred]

8 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Here's an animated Gif of the Ecmwf upper air temperatures for the next 7 days.. 

Starts cold turns milder and then stays mostly mild..

GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 days animated gif below wettest in the west with over 80mm but further east only 10-30mm highlighting the slow progress of the fronts in the next few days to push eastwards giving Western areas rain for longest.. Don't take too literally liable to change slightly in the coming days..

It's good to see something back on the more here and now. As you have suggested the rainfall figures look quite large over the west country. I wonder if this will slow in it's transition across the country, bringing some heavy rainfall again across some areas.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

Not very helpful for those trying to learn!..you could have said it's unsettled with low pressure (s)  in control and temperatures higher than recently, closer to average!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Not very helpful for those trying to learn!..you could have said it's unsettled with low pressure (s)  in control and temperatures higher than recently, closer to average!

Yes, it doesn't show a cold Northerly like the last 2 GFS runs or any sign of one after 240.

[ArHu3]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

Oh I compared with similar dates. I didn't look at the winters following or anything and I highly doubt we'll get any 19th century winter, there just isn't enough directly north/northwest of us like back then but that chart doesn't look like I have I ever seen being modelled

[northwestsnow]

Unfortunately, if one puts any stock in EC , we are going to have to ride out another unsettled phase.

I have accepted it,what i really do not want to see is HP getting comfortable across Southern Europe and an intensifying vortex building to our N/NW.with zonal winds forecast to moderate there is a chance we could see some Atlantic amplification down the line.That is an aspiration at present though.

[Jordan S]

25 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

It's good to see something back on the more here and now. As you have suggested the rainfall figures look quite large over the west country. I wonder if this will slow in it's transition across the country, bringing some heavy rainfall again across some areas.

I think its possible that slow moving fronts could cause similar problems to what we've experienced so far this autumn but the signs are atm that apart from and after the transition to more unsettled conditions at the end of this week where Western areas will get a lot of rainfall in one go the rain bearing fronts that do cross the UK next week are shown to push through fairly swiftly.. I think its the succession of perhaps smaller amounts of rainfall that will be of note regarding the exacerbation of any flooding.

Edited November 19, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

The ecm NH 5-10 profile. Pretty much as expected

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I will leave it to the rest of you to decide whether the ECM is garbage or the GFS is more hopeful, what I will say is.... The models currently are all over the place.... Perhaps something is a brewing..... I have a funny feeling in me water!!! Granted.... It could be me prostate, but I'm not so sure!! Some interest in the GFS ensembles!! 

Edited November 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[booferking]

JMA should show a Northerly when it completes its 18z  run not to dissimilar to GEM but we shall see...

[Stonethecrows]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I will leave it to the rest of you to decide whether the ECM is garbage or the GFS is more hopeful, what I will say is.... The models currently are all over the place.... Perhaps something is a brewing..... I have a funny feeling in me water!!! Granted.... It could be me prostate, but I'm not so sure!! Some interest in the GFS ensembles!! 

Enjoy your posts Matt but somehow i don't think the weather this winter will be anything to do with your bladder function

[tinybill]

all i say  the fantasy world  charts are looking interesting   at the  moment!!