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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS 06Z ensembles show a rapid descent into chaos after about Day 9, with the operational and control runs eventually moving in opposite directions, temperature-wise:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Lots of potential in 'imagination space'?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I was out and about this morning making sure Sidney wasn't too stressed after the latest EC weeklies update and the rain hadn't arrived by the time of the Camborne sounding but this indicates multiple cloud layers that I can very.starting with Cs downwards A cloud observers nightmare

2019111912.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.81b26022d69a9eb34f4ff38dc62a187c.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.3be5ebcb069fc071ed383d8c729244a3.gifmeteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.fec985ecad28fee7fe8ee6597eea09b1.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM moving towards ridging close to Greenland for the start of December, but rising heights across Europe might prevent cold getting down to the UK - may well squeeze the Atlantic directly through the UK and a return to long wet periods

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111800_324.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111812_312.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111900_300.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There is a lot going on at the end of the week with further upper troughs tracking south east and merging with the main trough close to the UK. It led to this surface analysis midday Friday according to this morning's fax

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4359200.thumb.png.59289a44e5eff4ec03101ee1d8c1dc2a.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4424000.thumb.png.d39ec048d6cc5dc257d6779794d7c339.pngPPVL89.thumb.gif.c57dc09c2891db0cd2590215eb42c24a.gif

The gfs take on this evening

72.thumb.png.9d11ac91d2afc2277cd09955c3f211ec.png84.thumb.png.d4a4f0b43ed9ca2fb19dc8d19da551d7.png96.thumb.png.929e05f54ad31df37d92e5911dddd095.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS with a new trend at 192 or too much gin? 

D92C42A5-75DE-47CB-B323-53B730DD835E.png

B6185D93-A9B7-4E46-B115-5723C434F054.png
 

I guess it’s pretty similar in the grand scheme of things

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS with a new trend at 192 or too much gin? 

D92C42A5-75DE-47CB-B323-53B730DD835E.png

B6185D93-A9B7-4E46-B115-5723C434F054.png
 

 

GFS is better,but quite different to UKMO at 144 in that UKMO looks flat as a pancake.GFS has a wee bit of amplification in the western Atlantic.

EC will be interesting..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Anyone else having issues seeing t850s on Meteociel? 

It’s been the same all day ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gfs has a very messy synoptic pattern towards day 10 with the jet stream more wavy instead of a straight west to east look.. interesting height rises to note close to Greenland too.. The Azores high a tad further southeast but not far from it's normal position at this point. 

Thursday 28th..

1804972721_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(7).thumb.jpg.21ae8b64160002749ab82a09566d6eb6.jpg

892144344_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(2).thumb.jpg.9b6b13f2bfc7608ec829c14794b26bf7.jpg

Friday 29th midnight and 6am..

515394501_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_228(2).thumb.jpg.92ff3ea41bd208e5759295dfce48fd57.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_228.thumb.jpg.d3fa1aa9b6a1d07255df3e8f9454577a.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_234 (1).jpg

495705269_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_234(3).thumb.jpg.1068a76b29d84efa22614438d52c1064.jpg

GFS ensembles are all over the place during the latter stages of the run. :unknw:

254504540_ens_image(41).thumb.png.10adeeef4fcb1007b4ed2aef71869d87.png

Gem ensembles more unsettled and upper air temperatures again a wide range although perhaps they are generally less cold than the Gfs

1660192183_ens_image(42).thumb.png.c0ddaff2d4210f343ca58798873bcb9b.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z pretty good - no sign of any vortex lobes setting up towards Greenland - if anything quite the contrary...

82828E4B-5015-4282-897B-6C548432CCC4.thumb.jpeg.c326e9dcff73fae8c6448016eb0d32e4.jpeg

The GFS mini maps for day 16 showing more & more sub -10M/S zonal winds which is superb to open out December...

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

Only a matter of time

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Posted
  • Location: Linlithgow
  • Location: Linlithgow
25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z pretty good - no sign of any vortex lobes setting up towards Greenland - if anything quite the contrary...

82828E4B-5015-4282-897B-6C548432CCC4.thumb.jpeg.c326e9dcff73fae8c6448016eb0d32e4.jpeg

The GFS mini maps for day 16 showing more & more sub -10M/S zonal winds which is superb to open out December...

That's some pressure over Greenland!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

JFF The GFS 12z FI showing upstream wave activity sending warmth to mid and high latitudes and possibly another cold spell for US northern states:

gfsnh-13-324.thumb.png.20d9bb34fb74b7b1ca2fdf39a00adb48.pnggfsnh-15-336.thumb.png.fbaa7efd24ad5df0fb37344a946b3a61.png

A much more appealing NH profile with potential for cold spells for the UK...

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

Only a matter of time

Is that even possible? - a flabby low, heights to our north-west ( as per Steve's comments ) to what appears to be an incredibly angry chunk of Vortex... ? serious question.. it does appear to be a rather dramatic change in 3 days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is that even possible? - a flabby low, heights to our north-west ( as per Steve's comments ) to what appears to be an incredibly angry chunk of Vortex... ? serious question.. it does appear to be a rather dramatic change in 3 days.

 

The tPV or Polar Lows are very mobile due to the lack of the usual trop PV pattern. So yes, it can and will change relatively quickly, as long as the tPV remains fluid. In fact that is possibly the most likely ongoing theme till if and when the tPV recovers. No concerted sign of this, yet!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The tPV or Polar Lows are very mobile due to the lack of the usual trop PV pattern. So yes, it can and will change relatively quickly, as long as the tPV remains fluid. In fact that is possibly the most likely ongoing theme till if and when the tPV recovers. No concerted sign of this, yet!

later gefs runs rather worrying for rainfall amounts,

886939070_Inkedgens-0-1-384(4)_LI.thumb.jpg.1a959995c0031c844edb15f13b899749.jpg

but plenty to keep us all interested loads going on.

ecm was bit flat this morning,

but wondering if this evenings ecm will show the same shallow wedge of heights into southern greenland as the later gem frames show.

because that could help flip the nao negative..

Inkedgem-0-228_LI.thumb.jpg.36e273a38cb4b0daa7e92dcb7a220057.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The salient points of the ext GEFS

A relatively complex vortex with the main lobe northern Russia with troughs extending towards the UK and down to northern Canada east of the ridge

The upshot of the amplification over North America is a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic to the UK where it is no longer diverted by the European block which is no more

Portending unsettled with temps around average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.b78f8434cf0307daa9bf85e920cc550d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.3dc03b69fa81070b02d51fbf5ba77423.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.50176bc0236c1584f10801a3c4c0629f.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As usual, all the 'excitement' (as far as the GEF 12Z is concerned) lies way past the onset of unreliability...T+240 at best?

I've also watched this Youtube presentation, which suggests that the upcoming SSW is not as-yet supported by the other models: 

Time to rein-in expectations?

the vortex is under some serious stress though its clear to see by the segments flapping all over the northern hemisphere defanatily has a southerly tracking jet compared to recent years well since the deluge of 2014.

and its been nippy already.

some pretty erratic going ons in the world of weather. last couple of years  has been pretty interesting.

but i do agree we have all been here before though.

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