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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

No sign of anything wintry on the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, indeed the trend is milder and staying unsettled..which has been the case for days now.

EDM0-120.thumb.gif.92263e21e810ff040cca44e6a36a20ba.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.740bb684d0497a334ef4823bbf114b4e.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.8d513681847caa749570fcefdc6cbb20.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.f6d093477d23d9f11bbe7a34759d92d8.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.a21ba5aa81a7b28b1eada0d0778bb5eb.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.999fc9a6c6bab25fd65edfff05ff1c2a.gif

Yes - Very flat and disappointing coldie outlook for the foreseeable  - must be if theres not even a hint of a Frosty style ramp 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

00z GFS +312  02-12-2019

Too far ahead but hey whatever - it's the best of a bad lot.

h500slp.thumb.png.f3e7e116543a50fd6d4e11f6c1ffc0eb.png

A proper Kilt lifter  

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
24 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z GFS +312  02-12-2019

Too far ahead but hey whatever - it's the best of a bad lot.

h500slp.thumb.png.f3e7e116543a50fd6d4e11f6c1ffc0eb.png

A proper Kilt lifter  

It really is I showed the chart for this in my post this morning caught my attention a very deep storm indeed.. Whether something similar to this happens in the next couple of weeks is anyone's guess as its 300 hrs away and definitely likely to change but here's the wind gust chart for that.. Bare in mind these wind gusts are just from that cold front and with the worst of the winds a few hundred miles north of Scotland you can imagine it being very severe closer to the centre.. 

00_306_windvector_gust.thumb.png.b16a0b4336ecbc560f4c29c23f11760d.png

00_315_windvector_gust.thumb.png.7b26bee9f63a52bb0bc494beb610be0b.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

In any case it isn't really true zonality, its pseudo-zonality, this is would feel cold with wintry showers and could easily develop into full on Greenland blocking.

image.thumb.png.1a5a204641c7f316b2fc3cfe04bdf426.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In any case it isn't really true zonality, its pseudo-zonality, this is would feel cold with wintry showers and could easily develop into full on Greenland blocking.

image.thumb.png.1a5a204641c7f316b2fc3cfe04bdf426.png

For the next 6-8 days its looking pretty mild no strong signal for particularly cold conditions atm.  

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

GFS 6z +240

image.thumb.png.1c27d96a62f23b13fbcc4d165a8c6f97.png

 

And then plus +252.

image.thumb.png.f822c559a6b4d64dab7fe9b2c9fff06f.png

 

Hello??!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In any case it isn't really true zonality, its pseudo-zonality, this is would feel cold with wintry showers and could easily develop into full on Greenland blocking.

image.thumb.png.1a5a204641c7f316b2fc3cfe04bdf426.png

I agree, at no point in recent runs has a convincing case been made that we will be entering a zonal phase. Of course, it may eventually lead there after the stalling Russian/Euro high is vanquished east.

The 06z is a variation on the theme, a mishmash of the GFS and ECM 0z runs:

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.2f78b7e871007687e9ece3bb698074b1.png

A middling ground with the block slower moving east. That should sharpen any troughs and ridges in our locale post the D10 period.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

GFS 6z +240

And then plus +252.

Hello??!! 

Yes, look at the evolution from 252 to 264 the trough has stalled near Greenland just pumping WAA up, cannot see the ridge collapsing - this is going to be a stonker!.

image.thumb.png.9a2ef08b16723a25287d56c4baf32b5e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, IDO said:

I. That should sharpen any troughs and ridges in our locale post the D10 period.

Yes -its doing just that on the 6z.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
16 minutes ago, IDO said:

I agree, at no point in recent runs has a convincing case been made that we will be entering a zonal phase. Of course, it may eventually lead there after the stalling Russian/Euro high is vanquished east.

The 06z is a variation on the theme, a mishmash of the GFS and ECM 0z runs:

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.2f78b7e871007687e9ece3bb698074b1.png

A middling ground with the block slower moving east. That should sharpen any troughs and ridges in our locale post the D10 period.

The flow looks westerly in the main , in my book, thats zonal.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Is there a way of getting rid of the Azores? 

Just carpet bomb it but why would you want to get rid of it, they have never done us any harm!!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its gone a bit crap now though with the azores about to ridge into the Euro / Bartlett position.

A very complex 06z run with many underlying forces competing. The good news is that we can actually see potential for some sort of cold spell, transitory or better.

The interest is upstream where we have a messy Pacific cut-off low that allows warmer air at mid-latitude so possible developments here if this materialises:

499193264_gfsnh-0-324(1).thumb.png.314b7d0afc2fe9c0c44cd80addb0aa73.png 

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just carpet bomb it but why would you want to get rid of it, they have never done us any harm!!

Haha, not the island itself as it sounds like a lovely place. Just that bloody front!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The flow looks westerly in the main , in my book, thats zonal.

 

Definitely a westerly flow to all intense and purposes, but at the lower vorticity of zonal, thankfully.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Certainly plenty of interest, in that run: from possible late November snow-falls to an, albeit very unlikely, early December blowtorch...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Tbh folks I think so far we have done OK so early on in proceedings. A few places witnessed some snow, last night brought lows of - 8C in parts of Scotland.. A very Frosty start here in the West Midlands.... Lovely crisp air... How I love it. Yes, things becoming less cold later this week and a tad unsettled... For how long is the question!! The extended ECM mean shows temps around 1.5C for the Midlands towards months end, and around - 0.6c for Glasgow. Nothing out of the ordinary there then.... The SLP for the South, tends to be hinting at some rises towards early December... 1011mb looks a decent starting point, so I'm a little more confident of some drier conditions devoloping at this stage!! That for one, is a start. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Tbh folks I think so far we have done OK so early on in proceedings. A few places witnessed some snow, last night brought lows of - 8C in parts of Scotland.. A very Frosty start here in the West Midlands.... Lovely crisp air... How I love it. Yes, things becoming less cold later this week and a tad unsettled... For how long is the question!! The extended ECM mean shows temps around 1.5C towards months end, and around - 0.6c for Glasgow. Nothing out of the ordinary there then.... The SLP for the South, tends to be hinting at some rises towards early December... 1011mb looks a decent starting point, so I'm a little more confident of some drier conditions devoloping at this stage!! That for one, is a start. 

Lows of -9.9C - Braemar.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Lows of -9.9C - Braemar.

Broadly speaking Scotland, certainly Northern parts, have experienced the kind of November i would have enjoyed.Certainly the last week or so at any rate.

Looks to me like the tables will turn eventually with Scotland and the north bearing the brunt of the projected +NAO phase with the SE of England having more influence from the Euro heights.

Of course this has little bearing on Winter, coldies like me are hoping the +NAO pattern does not endure too long.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Broadly speaking Scotland, certainly Northern parts, have experienced the kind of November i would have enjoyed.Certainly the last week or so at any rate.

Looks to me like the tables will turn eventually with Scotland and the north bearing the brunt of the projected +NAO phase with the SE of England having more influence from the Euro heights.

Of course this has little bearing on Winter, coldies like me are hoping the +NAO pattern does not endure too long.

 

A cursory glance at the charts indicates a significant change from the cold weather Scotland is experiencing. Turning wetter and milder, possibly to higher elevations. Potential impact to the start of the Scottish ski season? Of course it could all change quickly.

Edited by Sceptical
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