Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[knocker]

The ext EPS not a million miles from the GEFS, some variation with the Atlantic trough, rather incidental at this stage, so Ill skip the spiel this evening

NOAA in the same ball park, perhaps the vortex not quite so intense

 

[WxHerts]

Fail to see what's so horrendous about the ECM this evening...?! Jet stream remains very meridonial and well south of its usual position, a raging PV is well away from Greenland whilst things continue to look very ominous north of Siberia, meanwhile significant amplification exits the states?! That on top of a significant stratospheric warming event being hinted at by the GFS 12z today I'm really struggling to see the negatives I must say.

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS not a million miles from the GEFS, some variation with the Atlantic trough, rather incidental at this stage, so Ill skip the spiel this evening

NOAA in the same ball park, perhaps the vortex not quite so intense

 

Don’t like that anomoly west of Italy ..... that looks like it may be more than transient !!!!!

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Don’t like that anomoly west of Italy ..... that looks like it may be more than transient !!!!!

What this?

[bluearmy]

Just now, knocker said:

What this?

Indeed ....

[damianslaw]

A typical spell of late autumnal weather ahead, starting off cold and frosty tomorrow, becoming milder from Wednesday onwards with the atlantic moving through bringing wind and rain, and hopefully not quite as wet as recently. Temperatures slightly above seasonal average, but only a little so.

However, what is less normal for the time of year is the position of the jetstream which continues to move on a more southerly track than usual, and remaining so right through to the end of the month.

Longer term, models suggesting a possible northerly and a quite potent one, with some cold uppers wrapped within, however, this is a long way off, and the pattern looks conducive for possible secondary low development / shortwave activity developing to the SW sending all the cold air into the mid atlantic - but such features could then aid ridge development to the north and result in some undercutting scenarios - quite an interesting prospect.

[StretfordEnd1996]

That Northerly we've seen the GFS toy with today and yesterday appears not to be a thing on tonight's GFS18z run

 

Either way I didn't expect it to remain in the output but always a chance it could re-appear tomorrow, 240hrs + is a light year away (or so it always seems at these times of the year!)

Onto the GEFS now hopefully that may spring a few colder options in comparison to the op. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I have a sense of foreboding looking at the ECdet/mean this evening tbh.

Can easily see a big +nao setup for early Dec - we have lost the euro troughing looking at the mean, and that spells bad news ..(IMO).

Yes but it has been well signposted by the seasonals in fairness.

[icykev]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but it has been well signposted by the seasonals in fairness.

If it happens. Last year.

[icykev]

In my opinion everything seems to be pointing in the right direction. Cant expect a better setup going into December/start of winter. Greenland high. January easterly ❤❄

Just a dreamer Crewe❄

Edited November 18, 2019 by icykev

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, icykev said:

If it happens. Last year.

It takes less model skill to forecast zonal (close to the climatological mean) than it does to forecast trop effects of a SSW and/or meridional hemispheric set up.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z collapses down to an average run in the trop, here T192:

Later on the strat looks interesting at T312:

Edit: 0C on the chart at just T336, this is happening, whether that's a good thing or not for UK is a conversation still to be had...

Edited November 18, 2019 by Mike Poole

[bobbydog]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but it has been well signposted by the seasonals in fairness.

Fortunately, I remember the seasonals 'signposting' mild for winter 2010...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Fortunately, I remember the seasonals 'signposting' mild for winter 2010...

If I remember rightly, that is simply not true. At least not all of them in complete harmony. This year we have almost all the major seasonals in complete and unanimous agreement for a mean +NAO. 

We can only go on the forecasting tools available to us, and right now they forecast a mean +NAO for winter 2019/20.

Of course they could be wrong, but in my opinion they won't be far off the mark when all said and done.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

If I remember rightly, that is simply not true. At least not all of them in complete harmony. This year we have almost all the major seasonals in complete and unanimous agreement for a mean +NAO. 

We can only go on the forecasting tools available to us, and right now they forecast a mean +NAO for winter 2019/20.

Of course they could be wrong, but in my opinion they won't be far off the mark when all said and done.

Except the ECM apparently.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Except the ECM apparently.

I don't know, haven't seen it if there has been another run since the +NAO horror show I last saw.

Maybe someone could post it?

[Mapantz]

Without derailing this thread (more suited for seasonal forecast thread) The last update I saw posted was on the 15th Nov, and it showed the 'strongest signal yet for a +NAO' That is for December.

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't know, haven't seen it if there has been another run since the +NAO horror show I last saw.

Maybe someone could post it?

I think it might have been in the tweets thread, not sure, but the gist  was that ECM had pivoted!  It suggested also that ECM Nov runs were all on on one day, GloSea5 over the course of the previous month.  So might be more up to date too.   If anyone knows for sure, please can you clarify?

Edited November 18, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Gael_Force]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If I remember rightly, that is simply not true. At least not all of them in complete harmony. This year we have almost all the major seasonals in complete and unanimous agreement for a mean +NAO. 

We can only go on the forecasting tools available to us, and right now they forecast a mean +NAO for winter 2019/20.

Of course they could be wrong, but in my opinion they won't be far off the mark when all said and done.

I don't know if he's referring to the Dec 2010 or Jan/Feb 2010: either way, the old CFSV1 picked up the cold at both ends of the year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I don't know if he's referring to the Dec 2010 or Jan/Feb 2010: either way, the old CFSV1 picked up the cold at both ends of the year.

Yes, I thought so. Thanks for that!

[Yarmy]

For what it’s worth, this is the current state of the art ECM seasonal’s hindcast for 1995/1996 initialised with November 95 data:

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

Difficult for it to be more wrong. The above was prompted by Ant Masiello speculating on Twitter about how the GCMs would have forecast DJF with a similarly cold stratospheric base state.

Anyway, I think a fairly mobile first half of Dec is a strong possibility. Thereafter is anyone’s guess.

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

For what it’s worth, this is the current state of the art ECM seasonal’s hindcast for 1995/1996 initialised with November 95 data:

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

Difficult for it to be more wrong. The above was prompted by Ant Masiello speculating on Twitter about how the GCMs would have forecast DJF with a similarly cold stratospheric base state.

Anyway, I think a fairly mobile first half of Dec is a strong possibility. Thereafter is anyone’s guess.

Yes I noticed that earlier  quite a few  people going against the seasonal models  this year  with  other factors at play    we shall see 

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is not looking too crash hot, although looking fairly warm though!!

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is not looking too crash hot, although looking fairly warm though!!

Winter starts and, as if by magic, the northern blocking, that has ruined the past several months but would have brought significant cold and snow in winter time, disappears.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is not looking too crash hot, although looking fairly warm though!!

Looks a mobile first half of December