Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Mucka]

 

So an Atlantic ridge at the end of Nov seems plausible.

Could this be our first opportunity of seeing some real wintry weather to low level England?

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

So an Atlantic ridge at the end of Nov seems plausible.

Could this be our first opportunity of seeing some real wintry weather to low level England?

Hey Mucka! always good to see you join about this time each year! hope you're well, ready for the ride! & will you you be on the nightshift this year with a run down of the 00z's - QQ thoughts on that blob of purple over Hudson bay - pump up the heights or squash um'

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

So an Atlantic ridge at the end of Nov seems plausible.

Could this be our first opportunity of seeing some real wintry weather to low level England?

It's possible mucka but given the timescale I'd say probably not?144 hrs seems to be the bench mark app for fi.pv explosion also to the nw 

Edited November 18, 2019 by swfc

[Ali1977]

A second dig into Greenland of WAA at 264, cracking chart if in Jan but still decent in late Nov for wintery showers in many northern areas with a little altitude.

 

The PV is ramping a bit though, so not ideal as any WAS could get bowled over 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

One of these days a Gfs low res will verify, hopefully the 12z which has wintry potential!

[knocker]

I have been out all day trying to figure what all the blue sky with a golden orb is all about so haven't looked at the detail of the gfs but here's the 5-10 NH

Salient points

Vortex northern Russia but generally low pressure over the Arctic with trough extension northern Canada adjacent to the Greenland ridge,

Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter across the Atlantic to the trough  over the UK with the block still around but further east

Unsettled temp above average

 

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by knocker

[Mucka]

17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hey Mucka! always good to see you join about this time each year! hope you're well, ready for the ride! & will you you be on the nightshift this year with a run down of the 00z's - QQ thoughts on that blob of purple over Hudson bay - pump up the heights or squash um'

Yeah, I don't think we ever lose the search for cold and snow bug do we?

Our weather patterns are definitely going to become a little more mobile as we lose the influence of th Russian high but that doesn't need to be a bad thing, at least not in the longer term especially with a southerly jet.

At least we won't have low pressure stalling to the W and bringing up very moist air so while there will be wet and windy spells it will hopefully be less wet overall - if that makes sense?

It could well be over optimistic to hope for a ridge end of Nov and we may have go through a more typical early Dec pattern but as far as I can tell that is the first real window of opportunity even if it is a fairly narrow one.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Mucka

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

One of these days a Gfs low res will verify, hopefully the 12z which has wintry potential!

Hmm.. a few wintry showers in the north for a day or 2 then this. Won’t be too disappointed if it doesn’t verify! 

[Methuselah]

I reckon I'll put buying my new sledge 'on ice', for a wee while. I'll wait until Tesco offers them on a BOGOF promotion!

   

Nowt beats those easterly zephyrs?

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm.. a few wintry showers in the north for a day or 2 then this. Won’t be too disappointed if it doesn’t verify! 

Well granted, there certainly isn't a cold spell being modelled at present with high lat blocking so we are likely looking at a fairly brief polar flow at best, hardly knock your socks off winter weather but I'd snap your hand off to see snow just falling at low levels end of Nov even if I know no winter wonderland is possible.

I think the general consensus is for quite a zonal spell through first half of Dec so I'll take anything else as a bonus.

 

[Ali1977]

You name it, the FI ens have it. Mixed bag is a good description 

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I reckon I'll put buying my new sledge 'on ice', for a wee while. I'll wait until Tesco offers them on a BOGOF promotion!

   

Nowt beats those easterly zephyrs?

I think a canoe or skate board might be appropriate ed??il get my coat,or t-shirt .

Edited November 18, 2019 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes Ali but there is some stonkers in there.

some members heading into -10 category but also some heading into +10

i don't think much will show up in the models until this has been resolved,it's after the warming and poss split that the models will pick up on colder scenarios(hoping so) say a few weeks after

but heading the right way.

 

 

[knocker]

The ext GEFS pretty much as we were but just to note that ridge to the east has gone

Edited November 18, 2019 by knocker

[Jordan S]

52 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think a canoe or skate board might be appropriate ed??il get my coat,or t-shirt .

Especially with these rainfall accumulations spewing out from the Gfs and the Gem.. 3-4 inches in the wettest spots for southwest England and wales 1-2 inches elsewhere excluding the far northwest of Scotland (unusually).. Gem is a little wetter more widely but highlights the same area so southwest of England and Wales as bearing the wettest conditions. This will be due to the first weather systems being slow movers for the end of this week and well being more exposed to the westerly airstream.. Worth bearing in mind ofcourse these rainfall totals will change but this gives you a general idea of the theme..

GFS..

Gem..

No real change this evening from my earlier post for days 5-10 with several low pressure systems pushing through at frequent intervals this pattern doesn't look like shifting for a while yet to sustained settled and dry weather apart from the next few days until Thursday afternoon in the east and until tomorrow for the far west.. Decent agreement with the Gfs and Gem..  

GFS.. For Saturday below

Thursday 28th..

Gem..

Saturday.. 

Tuesday 26th.. 

Finally Thursday 28th..

Even in this unsettled period there will be drier day's inbetween.. I will give more detail tomorrow.

Edited November 18, 2019 by jordan smith

[bluearmy]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFS pretty much as we were but just to note that ridge to the east has gone

That’s not far away from getting the coldies excited knocks .....

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s not far away from getting the coldies excited knocks .....

Oh dear, heaven forbid blue. It's bad enough when they are somnolent

Edited November 18, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

Liking the ECM so far at T168:

Heights into Greenland and the vortex kept to the Siberian side, let's see where this one goes...

[northwestsnow]

Well, i guess its all about opinions.

For me EC looks very flat ...

[Kentspur]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, i guess its all about opinions.

For me EC looks very flat ...

I was going to say the same it's not negatively tilted enough (the low to our West) heights not too good over Greenland but theres room for improvement still

[knocker]

There are a couple of things that impress about this. The repeated rapid cyclogenisis in the baroclinic zone in the NW Atlantic and the amount and intensity of the WAA

[feb1991blizzard]

EC mean in line with the op.

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC mean in line with the op.

I have a sense of foreboding looking at the ECdet/mean this evening tbh.

Can easily see a big +nao setup for early Dec - we have lost the euro troughing looking at the mean, and that spells bad news ..(IMO).

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I have a sense of foreboding looking at the ECdet/mean this evening tbh.

Can easily see a big +nao setup for early Dec - we have lost the euro troughing looking at the mean, and that spells bad news ..(IMO).

I think we all know now what we are reliant on but wont mention it in this thread.

Edited November 18, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I have a sense of foreboding looking at the ECdet/mean this evening tbh.

Can easily see a big +nao setup for early Dec - we have lost the euro troughing looking at the mean, and that spells bad news ..(IMO).

The euro troughing/ridging is important - I wonder how transient that build of heights to our south might be ??? Doesn’t look overly worrying just yet but wouldn’t surprise you would it !