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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How many Kronenburgs has the pub run had tonight ?

Forget the Knonenbergs!!!

i will have a stella...

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.7ed1d99d464bdbe72e32633b41b6a5ad.png

a beauty of a chart that is with most of the low heights puling away from our NW to be replaced over to our NE,all good from here although subject to wild swings that was shown on the 12z ens.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

 

9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

"Patience is going to be required I think...either that or something distinctly unexpected."

Could I put in a request for this kind of distinctly unexpected please?

 

gfsnh-13-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would hope that almost a quarter of a century later, the ecm seasonal is no longer drawn by John Holmes using a coupe of dice and some crayons ..........

And still reliable as ever.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would hope that almost a quarter of a century later, the ecm seasonal is no longer drawn using a coupe of dice and some crayons ..........

A very funny comment made me chuckle  Gfs certainly strengthens the blocking towards Greenland on this update with low pressure systems taking a more and more southerly track as the run goes on..

1255654735_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(2).thumb.jpg.37160a99d0688a605b4b42b4edf0ff53.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_234.thumb.jpg.9f981318216a39931d37da8a8286fe60.jpg

it is quite different to the last run so perhaps a dusting of salt should be sprinkled.. For now anyway. But very interesting nevertheless. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

An interesting 18z  GFS showing how quickly things can change when that Scuero ridge collapses.

Ens ht anomalies have been steady on this for a few days now and also trending towards Scandi.lower anomalies with hints of weakish hts towards Greenland..

An Arctic northerly later in week 2 is certainly possible with the vortex disruption modeled, all we need is that wedge of high pressure to the north with this southerly tracking jet..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would hope that almost a quarter of a century later, the ecm seasonal is no longer drawn by John Holmes using a coupe of dice and some crayons ..........

To be honest, blue, I'd choose @johnholmes dice or anyone's over the ECM 46 dayer  after last winter... Progress is a windy path.   

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Almost in range of winter proper now. Outer edges of the EC ensemble clusters now giving a peek into December, and as expected the trend is towards a distinct westerly influence, with the possibility of a relatively mild airflow given the biggest cluster showing a Euro slug.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111712_360.thumb.png.211d129cfccdf4325cee21f0654313b9.png

As with any tool at such range these are subject to wild variation - but probably represents our best free long range tool. 2 of these clusters still show conditions broadly favourable for ongoing vortex stress.

For interest this was yesterday's run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111612_360.thumb.png.e52c54b2162c821498897c55d908f83b.png

Even more distinct +NAO signature across the clusters though with a good bit more polar air in the mix.

With the MJO returning to the IO and inevitable lag in any vortex disruption from the current warm air intrusions (and those forecast) I cant see a particularly cold or snowy start to the month away from favoured high ground locations. Patience is going to be required I think...either that or something distinctly unexpected.

I much prefer todays majority cluster compared to yesterday's. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

One would hope that almost a quarter of a century later, the ecm seasonal is no longer drawn by John Holmes using a coupe of dice and some crayons ..........

I believe that those are hindcasts for 95/96 from the current seasonal models.  In other words, it’s what the current models would’ve predicted then. Someone responded to a question Ant Masiello asked on Twitter:

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Forget the Knonenbergs!!!

i will have a stella...

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.7ed1d99d464bdbe72e32633b41b6a5ad.png

a beauty of a chart that is with most of the low heights puling away from our NW to be replaced over to our NE,all good from here although subject to wild swings that was shown on the 12z ens.

 

 

Interesting jet profile too, need to get that into the more reliable timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Pub run may have been onto something, 00z follows on in a similar vein, but with even colder air close by, this is day 10. Not sure the lack of heights around Greeny will help swing the arm round though, but not a bad run till this point. 

FC8F60C5-D6FF-4C22-AD77-A14C0D13E2A2.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - Essentially the story of an extra tropical cyclone that has developed in the north west Atlantic drifting east through this week

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analyses for midnight and the latest sat image

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-4035200.thumb.png.98a114400576d61a2fd45e713aa699db.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.474be58f9a8ac8292b37dd7a58c32861.gif20191118_0400_sat_irbw_h.thumb.jpg.ff8d252bb359081d92cc226f60aa0fd4.jpg

After a frosty start in many places, and some cloud and rain in the south east which should clear fairly quickly. today will be a sunny day with little wind. The exception being the east coast where the might be the odd shower in the brisk northerly wind.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.09e4fdf929148ee8859a2d4a260b844b.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.aaddc72588f97b0818e757ba3acb4c64.png

Tonight clear and cold with a widespread frost by Tuesday morning with a fair bit of fog around. Still the odd shower clipping Norfolk

PPVG89.thumb.gif.f05465f079b236ea71ceaac852c60055.gifsfctemp_d02_37.thumb.png.495a4b0cc40a85d5d30841f8165013c8.png

Once the fog clears another sunny day for most but an occlusion associated with the aforementioned low will bring rain to N. Ireland and the south west by 1500

PPVI89.thumb.gif.d6c60c0317a6fce1db1f25fdab28fabe.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.881d7e1eba32c515e6d9e36310e2f66e.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.78603047057a4bf8b770700b40eb7e83.png

Over Tuesday  night and through Wednesday the front and rain make little progress east as the low stalls to the west of Ireland courtesy of the eastbound energy hitting the block to the east, So many areas will nave a another sunny day with the cloud and patchy rain confined to western regions

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4251200.thumb.png.21ee4ee1edb21a90ce24a6ec971941dd.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.c3ba2dabe06c554f712167882e72032a.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.9a62f106dd224ed6a475f8842e476e4c.gif

Over the next couple of days the energy distribution continues to negate eastward movement of the trough which becomes negatively tilted under the pressure resulting in a myriad of fronts/troughs tracking north east across the country bringing showers and longer periods of rain with the surface wind also increasing from the south east. But this also means temps rising a tad

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4337600.thumb.png.fd89329576a254d950a42bd3db0acdfb.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4424000.thumb.png.a7230daea384ed71e8639493c3118eb3.png

PPVM89.thumb.gif.72fc36173bc618845a80d769e573c890.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.3db1f1089fce008b5ebce37aafc1bacd.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-4359200.thumb.png.73bd0e54ed656cc148ca3574ba75558d.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-4445600.thumb.png.49e44a72e1e1e24d7f73917f4df8ee0d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs the evolution continues apace over the weekend and into next week as the eastbound energy slowly erodes the block as high pressure is transferred west to Greenland.Thus systems continue to track east over the UK but at least it is now a tad warmer than of late.

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4510400.thumb.png.bca486beeac4878da3e29a2a92b5050a.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4596800.thumb.png.6093b371d48e3b2a7d9d1dd2111fb7fb.png

132.thumb.png.6cbb6d47ac2e5021c67c846e0fb365bf.png156.thumb.png.1a284bac7d66cfaf6ec41f7a9960f4c9.png

And this is the overall 5-10 picture with tpv pretty much where expected

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4899200.thumb.png.158b9fd89387dd68e2ef008e3bf91272.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No surprises with the ext GEFS this morning with the vortex over northern Russia with trough extensions to the north of the UK and Alaska/northern Canada. A strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter and the adjacent Greenland ridge which then runs unimpeded across a negatively anomalous Atlantic to the the UK as the block in the east declines. This would indicate unsettled with temps around average. perhaps a tad above

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5244800.thumb.png.0463f3edbcf6f6bdb16e3addf9160f53.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5244800.thumb.png.62f6ad3055bb7179bce126ce7c63bf24.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5244800.thumb.png.47d58483e8a3a75b01041df02612e32a.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 hours ago, Catacol said:

Before everyone dislikes that last post though, if mods will allow it, here are a couple of charts nicked off twitter....showing just how far off the models at times can be. (Admittedly 20 years old models....) 1995/96 (a pretty good winter overall) anomalies for the winter season

EJdfVowXsAII2Bl.thumb.png.d04c6c06f0ece66ab2ebf44f56c5bfcb.png

and next the ECM forecast for that season

EJdfD66WoAA-nqW.thumb.png.7ae0dfcf8ba67419f1423176c64a9de7.png

So - never lose faith! Look to the final third of the month....and beyond....

In case you missed @Yarmy's comment, it is the seasonal hindcast for December - February 1995 of the current model with November 1995 initialization data. Hopefully this hindcast is as good as the current winter forecast 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm not looking quite so keen to remove the block but generally in the same ball park as the gfs/gefs. So the latter half of the run unsettled but warmer. Usual caveats vis the surface charts

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4856000.thumb.png.e841b7159e90e9a09e3500ed7a46702c.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4812800.thumb.png.3880af97cda0b4e516b23d7ae87b2197.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4877600.thumb.png.fdb1f9c7c260c5610f328b0d54a7e54a.png

156.thumb.png.53c51a61a92e93a2aa78be592fd3800a.png180.thumb.png.6f3c9d8fb2f2957f6f6198c36942521e.png210.thumb.png.84e3070aa7b9dbbadc1dbd5ab4827ef2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning all, the latest ECM run has the Atlantic Low hitting the buffers again and backs the flow over the British Isles at the end of next week.  The next big low out of Newfoundland will no doubt have an other go  to break the dead lock. Still no real consensus in the models in the shorter range. (ie) will the Atlantic trough, stall , slide or get a push through your neck of the woods?

C

ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow what a start to winter from the Gfs 0z operational..might get the BBQ out again!!..the euro slug's timing is..well, not surprising!!

00_348_mslp500.thumb.png.29309865af289de20a8417710141293b.png00_348_mslp850.thumb.png.95a801bd6d7add6dc92ac1585cf27370.png00_348_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.22a4d8a7363b0e97bf335458448af0a8.png00_372_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.93d95e12aedbfe893d0352c3b861c5a1.png00_372_mslp850.thumb.png.5ead05ccfaa2d5179d92da46160d61c2.png00_372_ukthickness850.thumb.png.f80394c4f99a6ca632530e78d7bd6f5e.png00_384_mslp500.thumb.png.01b157cda80693a7d07938d2262f9ec9.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

0z Ecm not looking quite as unsettled as the previous run which should be welcome news although still very changeable. To my untrained eye it doesn’t seem to hold as much interest as yesterday’s 12z run either from a cold perspective as the jet doesn’t seem to be digging as far south in the latter stages. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see those euro heights come more into play early Dec. All in all not a great start to the day of model watching/fatigue.

Edited by Newberryone
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Greater confidence in the evolution after D10 today, the GEFS backed by the ops are trending towards moving the Euro/Russian ridge/high out of play, as seen yesterday. That effectively should herald a pattern change and will depend on how the Pacific forcing develops as to what the other wave (Atlantic/Azores) does?

The GEFS have no real clue at this early stage, with something like the op, a UK high wafting mild uppers to a flatter or more amplified solution. These options invariably are akin to the upstream amplification.

So November continues with the wedges of heights to our north that are not conducive in UK cold. The UK remains at the end of the stalling Atlantic train as it slams into the Euro/Russian high and ATM signs that by the end of the month the Atlantic will slowly ease that Euro/Russia high east:

anim_lfj0.gif

 

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
17 minutes ago, IDO said:

Greater confidence in the evolution after D10 today, the GEFS backed by the ops are trending towards moving the Euro/Russian ridge/high out of play, as seen yesterday. That effectively should herald a pattern change and will depend on how the Pacific forcing develops as to what the other wave (Atlantic/Azores) does?

The GEFS have no real clue at this early stage, with something like the op, a UK high wafting mild uppers to a flatter or more amplified solution. These options invariably are akin to the upstream amplification.

So November continues with the wedges of heights to our north that are not conducive in UK cold. The UK remains at the end of the stalling Atlantic train as it slams into the Euro/Russian high and ATM signs that by the end of the month the Atlantic will slowly ease that Euro/Russia high east:

anim_lfj0.gif

 

Russian heights replaced by a monster Iberian high, you couldn’t make it up! Pretty horrible viewing this morning, the ECM is particularly sickly.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

 

Time to head to Iceland if this gfs run is on the money.

Very cold uppers heading  their way and should be hitting the U.K. too,a bit later on.

A good run,but shame it’s in lala land,most of it.

At least their is plenty of cold air on our side of the Arctic ocean for a change,so if we do get an outbreak of Maritime Arctic air,it will be unusually potent I would imagine.

 

Edited by SLEETY
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