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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt too exciting about today's GFS 12Z, IMO. Aye, there's some cold air up to our north, but I have a nasty wee feeling that the depression, out in the Atlantic, will sweep mildness northeastward...But, as it's at T+384, who knows?:unknw:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Les ensembles don't suggest a cold, snowy outlook, either.:oldsad:

t2mLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Well, it's still a couple of months before I get interested in the winter model output so just an observation or two.

Back in the spring of 2013, the GFS would constantly show FI with milder "zonal" conditions returning to break the cold spell but they didn't verify for weeks. Now we are seeing a lot of output (12Z Control) showing a more conventional zonal aspect returning in far FI but the 12Z OP is much less certain tonight. GEM and ECM out to T+240 keep the southerly tracking jet in play as well.

I don't know and the model output reflects a lack of a clear signal. 

I follow the Stratosphere thread as a novice and am in awe of the knowledge of many on there - I fear a displacement from the Eurasian side will simply knock the PV back to Canada and fire up a 10-14 day Atlantic spell. As others have said, keeping the PV over Siberia (and the trop-strat disconnect) helps those looking for cold. Would the displaced PV be weak enough to encourage Scandinavian HP?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is easy on the eyes if milder and unsettled is your thing.

EDM0-144.thumb.gif.783c97209a1cd3e7dbcb5f8ae0f1c5bc.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.d870fa818280bc99d58f334007f8553c.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.158296a1a10a49d1020b9637c5e5cfda.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.7786647bfce6bfe00fb9f4e6ed1371a2.gif

PS..I'm now reactionless:cray:

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm glad I left the dirty work for you Karl, to post those horrid ECM means charts but tbh they have been hinting at it for some time!! And a little message for @Mike Poole you say your getting exhausted with this model watching and that you still haven't witnessed a snowflake yet!!! The problem is Mike dear man, we are hunting for the perfect set up, far to early these days!! November extremes of snow and cold is as rare as a pig in a fur coat. We have several more months of this just yet, and I'm running low on prozac already!! Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride. Hoping things improve shorty as you were with the ECM mean... Pretty dam ordinary. 

graphe_ens3 (1).png

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Jetstream profile forecasts for rest of the month would suggest low pressure being steered in a direct course for the UK, which will no doubt result in plenty more rain, and heaviest totals not just reserved for northern parts as tends to be the norm, given the more southerly position of the jet. Also becoming a bit flat which suggests troughs may now be able to move further to the east. Temperatures overall preety close to average certainly nothing overly mild for the time of year, nor conversely anything particularly cold.

No sign the jet will align on a more northerly path anytime soon, which gives every chance for something colder to develop in time from the north, so not surprised to see some of the models showing a northerly in the outer realms of model timescale.

This certainly looks like going down as a trough dominating November, with barely any high pressure on the scene. The pressure pattern for the month will show a very deep trough direct over the UK, strong heights to the east and to the north. Suspect for many sunshine levels will be very below par.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON showing those baby steps even at T120, 18z first,  12z at T126 second:

image.thumb.jpg.3a71484f29a3cce89a8f932a84710c7f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9b1ddd2be9274eaf2dbd505dbeca49aa.jpg

Follow the light blues (aqua if you like)....

Edit: GFS at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.1f0ac6e79b10d1b148aaee61615c1ca6.jpg

Makes  more of that separation of the two lows, this run could build a greenie!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening

So whilst its not the perfect set up the continued trending shows a moderate Greenland Anomaly & the PV settling over the Eastern quadrant of the NH was we look down in it -

That then followed by a warming in the stratosphere ....

Plenty of reasons to feel optimistic then currently..

You couldn't have summed up the situation better, Steve.   Pub run may have gone a bit off piste at T234, 

image.thumb.jpg.72777132da3a210d37642a5d7f859eea.jpg

...but imagine if it was a direct hit?? 

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You couldn't have summed up the situation better, Steve.   Pub run may have gone a bit off piste at T234, 

image.thumb.jpg.72777132da3a210d37642a5d7f859eea.jpg

...but imagine if it was a direct hit?? 

Yes the channel of cold could be a bit further East but a pretty good run...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs eye candy wasn’t long in appearing ..... no doubt back to an fi southerly by the 00z run! 

I can't tell you how much i want this to come off, i know it almost certainly won't of course..

image.thumb.png.d58d415cec91d515a4f1fbb1fb0a13ae.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Almost in range of winter proper now. Outer edges of the EC ensemble clusters now giving a peek into December, and as expected the trend is towards a distinct westerly influence, with the possibility of a relatively mild airflow given the biggest cluster showing a Euro slug.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111712_360.thumb.png.211d129cfccdf4325cee21f0654313b9.png

As with any tool at such range these are subject to wild variation - but probably represents our best free long range tool. 2 of these clusters still show conditions broadly favourable for ongoing vortex stress.

For interest this was yesterday's run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111612_360.thumb.png.e52c54b2162c821498897c55d908f83b.png

Even more distinct +NAO signature across the clusters though with a good bit more polar air in the mix.

With the MJO returning to the IO and inevitable lag in any vortex disruption from the current warm air intrusions (and those forecast) I cant see a particularly cold or snowy start to the month away from favoured high ground locations. Patience is going to be required I think...either that or something distinctly unexpected.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

JFF but proper battleground snow event on the 18z cold air coming south and rain coming north . Up north will be liking this run. 4745A6A4-B0AE-4346-9162-B039D1E41FB8.thumb.png.99622ea1fcd67457db2f64ebdcfec231.png48DD76A1-F847-4FA2-83D9-23019F29427D.thumb.png.f15a2db65e4eea2003e1f66c0db6c0ff.png8FF5D143-D8A0-4B53-8D26-99EA5A3968A3.thumb.png.2d84af29678874132fcc7154bfbc2e73.png
 

And the strat warming staring under T300 now 00142442-C7BB-4223-B11D-54091C2FE9FE.thumb.png.adff33d218667b37a1b1b86238691784.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Before everyone dislikes that last post though, if mods will allow it, here are a couple of charts nicked off twitter....showing just how far off the models at times can be. (Admittedly 20 years old models....) 1995/96 (a pretty good winter overall) anomalies for the winter season

EJdfVowXsAII2Bl.thumb.png.d04c6c06f0ece66ab2ebf44f56c5bfcb.png

and next the ECM forecast for that season

EJdfD66WoAA-nqW.thumb.png.7ae0dfcf8ba67419f1423176c64a9de7.png

So - never lose faith! Look to the final third of the month....and beyond....

Edited by Catacol
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