Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Ice Day]

Out to 210 and the GFS is looking very different to the 6z.  There's an extensive pooling of frigid air to the north/north each that is trying to head our way!?

   

 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 210 and the GFS is looking very different to the 6z.  There's an extensive pooling of frigid air to the north/north each that is trying to head our way!?

   

 

At ten days it's shocking.not sure about the cold but a boat maybe needed!!!

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 210 and the GFS is looking very different to the 6z.  There's an extensive pooling of frigid air to the north/north each that is trying to head our way!?

   

 

It’s a step in the right direction, importantly sending lower heights back into towards the med . 
At 240

Edited November 17, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

At ten days it's shocking.not sure about the cold but a boat maybe needed!!!

It's certainly not pretty, very wet and stormy

Good job it will be different on the next run.....

[SLEETY]

42 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Totally agree with this....So want a mid to late Dec cold spell running fully into Jan...Not seen for years 2010 even although great didn't do it post Xmas in the South...Jamstec on board by way...

Yeah exactly.

Jan 2010 was ok but nothing that special here..

Think we need to be a bit patient,but having said that the ukmo looks a good run,with more of a slider low at 120 hours, compared to the GFS,think we need to concentrate on that as could be more changes for the better in the nearer timeframe.

Anything after that timescale seems to never verify  anyway.

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by SLEETY

[booferking]

Gfs 12z not far off what looks like a cold spell setting in cold uppers sinking South overtime.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 ens snapshot , some quite close to going cold. 

[Ali1977]

A strange looking mean at day 11, and still options for cold weather in the ENS - not deep FI 

However looking at the mean this could quite easily give us BBQ Weather ,  with everything too for West we could be on warm SW winds!! 

 

The mean in FI isn’t good viewing for coldies!! 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

A strange looking mean at day 11, and still options for cold weather in the ENS - not deep FI 

However looking at the mean this could quite easily give us BBQ Weather ,  with everything too for West we could be on warm SW winds!! 

Hence my musings early this morning ..... assuming the op swings a bit, we will at least get some eye candy at some point 

[pdiddy]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A strange looking mean at day 11, and still options for cold weather in the ENS - not deep FI 

However looking at the mean this could quite easily give us BBQ Weather ,  with everything too for West we could be on warm SW winds!! 

 

The mean in FI isn’t good viewing for coldies!! 

The mean in FI is fairly meaningless though as it simply blends all scenarios. I'm more positive in the mid to longer term about the lack of PV in Greenland and Canada.

Edited November 17, 2019 by pdiddy

[knocker]

A somewhat complex  ext GEFS this evening with an Aleutian ridge and twin vortex lobes over Asia and northern Russia with  troughs extending into Alaska/ n. Canada and north of the UK But perhaps the key point is the movement, and weakening, east of the European ridge  The upshot of all this is that the strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the trough/ridge complex has an uninterrupted route, via the mid Atlantic trough to the UK. This would portend unsettled with temps a tad above average.

Edited November 17, 2019 by knocker

[Jordan S]

So the Gfs a bit more progressive with the unsettled conditions at the end of next week throughout the run it shows a consistent theme the jet stream staying to the south of the UK for the most part with higher pressure around Greenland helping to keep unsettled conditions further south for the north Atlantic..

23rd..

26th..

30th..

Also this update paints a wetter picture especially upto days 7-10 as shown on the Gfs 10 day accumulated rainfall chart below..

Gem similar theme although slower to bring rain bearing frontal systems into the uk but unsettled after midweek continuing until the end of the run..

Saturday 23rd..

25th..

26th..

Gem rainfall accumulation chart below.. 

Edited November 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[bobbydog]

Why all the doom and gloom about F.I.?

The trop vortex is showing no signs of getting itself together,

The colder 850's are creeping ever closer,

And the strat, which is always more reliable in modelling terms, is showing a potential warming event.

This only takes us up to the 3rd of December!

Give winter a chance, it hasn't even started yet....

[Sceptical]

15 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

So the Gfs a bit more progressive with the unsettled conditions at the end of next week throughout the run it shows a consistent theme the jet stream staying to the south of the UK for the most part with higher pressure around Greenland helping to keep unsettled conditions further south for the north Atlantic..

23rd..

26th..

30th..

Also this update paints a wetter picture especially upto days 7-10 as shown on the Gfs 10 day accumulated rainfall chart below..

Gem similar theme although slower to bring rain bearing frontal systems into the uk but unsettled after midweek continuing until the end of the run..

Saturday 23rd..

25th..

26th..

Gem rainfall accumulation chart below.. 

Good work

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

Good work

Thankyou

[Mike Poole]

Quite a big difference at T168 ECM (left) and GFS (right)

ECM opens the door to a ridge into Greenland here.

 

[That ECM]

The other eyebrow has raised

[Blessed Weather]

Hi Folks. Regarding the posts being made in this thread that are entirely or predominantly about the stratosphere. Whilst it can be argued that strat charts are still model output, we have a specialist Strat thread that is intended to capture ongoing stratospheric developments during the season. This is very useful in following seasons when folk might want to look back and see how the SPV developed in a particular year. If strat charts are continually posted in the wrong place that benefit is lost.

It’s fine in this thread to include some strat charts as part of a wider post discussing implications for 500hPa model output, but 'strat only' or ‘predominantly strat’ posts will be moved to the Strat thread.

The Mod team felt some clarity was needed and I hope everyone is OK with this guidance. If you wish to discuss this further please pm any of us or raise in Contact the Forum Team thread.
Many thanks.

[knocker]

The ecm has a lot going on at the end of the week starting at midday Thursday as another upper trough drops into the western Atlantic promoting downstream ridging into Greenland as the eastbound energy hitting the block to the east starts putting the squeeze on the UK trough. Forty eight hours later further troughs have tracked into the Atlantic and the UK trough has disrupted and a high cell has been established over southern Greenland linked to European ridge.

Over the next 48 hours the upstream twin feeds cement the high pressure over Greenland as troughs track east across the Atlantic

And whilst all this is going on not to forget the surface analysis, the detail of which will of course be liable to change

Edited November 17, 2019 by knocker

[WxHerts]

ECM quite easy on the eye this evening...makes much less of high pressure to our east compared to other models as it makes much more of an effort to retrogress it over towards the Greenland area early on - PV looking quite ominous too as it lurks north of Siberia with some very cold air building...of course this is still all at/around day 10, though it must be acknowledged that other models definitely aren't a million miles off. Small changes earlier on will continue to screw up output later on so until the next 5 days are resolved and over with, there will continue to be massive flip flops from run to run in the extended range. Need to stay positive though as things really are not looking bad at all from a cold perspective...

Edited November 17, 2019 by WXHerts

[That ECM]

But there are ridges and then there are ridges

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, WXHerts said:

ECM quite easy on the eye this evening...makes much less of high pressure to our east compared to other models as it makes much more of an effort to retrogress it over towards the Greenland area early on - PV looking quite ominous too as it lurks north of Siberia with some very cold air building...of course this is still all at/around day 10, though it must be acknowledged that other models definitely aren't a million miles off. Small changes earlier on will continue to screw up output later on so until the next 5 days are over with, there will continue to be massive flip flops from run to run in the extended range. Need to stay positive though as things really are not looking bad at all from a cold perspective...

All OK if it stays there mate!  

This model watching is all getting quite exhausting and I've yet to see a snowflake, although some close by did last week, so where are we in ten days time?  Well the models say this, ECM, GEM and GFS:

The uncertainty is huge isn't it, but perhaps the least uncertain part of it is the location of the trop vortex.  

So as far as the hunt for cold is concerned, which doesn't have it's own thread so I'll use this one, we currently have two irons in the fire, a meridional tropospheric pattern that could, possibly at quite short notice, morph into a UK cold/snow scenario, or a route to an early SSW which would lead to a lottery that we hold two thirds of the tickets for.  We will see...

[syed2878]

4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Enough, now.

I have said to PM me with any concerns. Back to the models now, please?!

And just to be clear on this, as it seems some are not reading my posts correctly..

I haven't once said that no one is allowed to post about the strat in here.

I have said twice now, strat chat is fine if you're mixing it in to musings around standard model discussion, it's exactly the same as our guidelines for tweets/met office, which has always been the same.

Stop stressing and continue as normal - there's no issues at all here. 

 although I know you said to PM you I think the strap thread itself need to be updated we are still posting on the 2017 I believe for 1920 I think that should be a new thread sorry for the off topic.

[knocker]

The ext EPS continues the quite quick evolution of the NH pattern

Upstream now an Alaskan ridge and quite intense tpv northern Russia with an extension to northern Canada and the adjacent high cell that has been established during the evolution. There is a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter flowing across the Atlantic via the mid Atlantic trough to the UK where it is now inhibited as the ridge in the east has decayed. THis would indicate an unsettled period but temps now trending above average. Keep still my beating heart

 

[Jordan S]

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The uncertainty is huge isn't it, but perhaps the least uncertain part of it is the location of the trop vortex.  

So as far as the hunt for cold is concerned, which doesn't have it's own thread so I'll use this one

Hi Mike I remember there use to be one not sure why there isn't one anymore or mabye there is and I haven't seen it. 

Anyway Gfs ensembles look quite a lot more unsettled further ahead again upper air temperatures look to be uncertain atm but a trend above average..

For a change I thought I'd add the Gem ensembles too a similar theme to the Gfs..

Edited November 17, 2019 by jordan smith