Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Methuselah]

Eeeeee up...it's a one-man Mexican standoff: barbecue in one hand, sledge in the other...?

   

Possible unseasonal warmth followed by our first blast of real winter!?Or wishful thinking!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z as others have posted, does provide a serious warming i the strat ..

I will happily endure a few more weeks of waterboarding if we hit the jackpot later on..

Yes, we will need to see at what point the warming subsides, will it do enough damage to the vortex, no sign yet other than an (unfavourable) displacement but the warming hasn't finished, we need it to continue to strengthen post T384 then hope somehow we can get it followed up, you don't often see those charts in late Nov / early December so not bad at all, by about this time next week we will have a fair idea if there is any chance of something significant for xmas or not.

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, we will need to see at what point the warming subsides, will it do enough damage to the vortex, no sign yet other than an (unfavourable) displacement but the warming hasn't finished, we need it to continue to strengthen post T384 then hope somehow we can get it followed up, you don't often see those charts in late Nov / early December so not bad at all, by about this time next week we will have a fair idea if there is any chance of something significant for xmas or not.

You’d think that if this is close to,or becomes an SSW you’d see the wording change in the METO long range, a hint atleast, so that’s something to keep an eye on. 
Any type of SSW in the next few weeks would throw seasonal , long range, monthly forecasts from the professionals and big long range models out the window should our side of the NH benifit. 
All just guess work for now, but when you see warming hitting the red colour it rarely vanished completely!!

Edited November 17, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mapantz]

Too many posts in here purely concentrating on the strat. We have a dedicated thread for those types of posts. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

You’d think that if this is close to,or becomes an SSW you’d see the wording change in the METO long range, a hint atleast, so that’s something to keep an eye on. 
Any type of SSW in the next few weeks would throw seasonal , long range, monthly forecast out the window should our side of the NH be if it. 
All just guess work for now, but when you see warming hitting the red colour it rarely vanished completely!!

Yes, don't forget though you would imagine that this is hinted in other models, the ensemble model lorenzo posted did show a majority SSW but later on (i think), i think it was the ECM seasonal.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Too many posts in here purely concentrating on the strat. We have a dedicated thread for those types of posts. 

It is still model output though so surely valid in either thread, sorry though if it is not.

[Ali1977]

10 day GEFS mean looking different to the NE, more blocked solutions cropping up beyond day 10 - another trend maybe 

[swfc]

40 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

10 day GEFS mean looking different to the NE, more blocked solutions cropping up beyond day 10 - another trend maybe 

Sorry do you mean to the nw ,tia

[Ali1977]

A few FI jaw droppers on the GEFS

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Sorry do you mean to the nw ,tia

Yep

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 05/11/2019 at 15:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

MJO moved briefly into phase 4 during the last days of October https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_b438a5126b4cf5a32f67041512156dad.pdf again this suggests higher pressure to the N / NE and lower pressure to the south so the possibility of an easterly (which some ensembles have hinted at recently) and as I have mentioned with cold conditions across Scandi should we get an easterly I wouldn't rule out the chance of some wintry conditions.

Currently the MJO is in phase 5 and conflicting signals arise - https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_dc8ab3d428301ce27fdc8058c7edba5f.pdf which suggests higher pressure right up through the arctic,   which suggests higher pressure towards UK and some lower pressure to the north, which suggests higher pressure to the south and lower pressure to the north east. So 3 different options and my current feeling is leaning more toward the more blocked option for 2 reasons, first the MJO is forecast to move through phase 6,7,8  https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_7b1111024e3cdd623d605106fba33f51.pdf https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_9bbcf411b167ba537e629659eacd304a.pdf https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf    which appear to suggest phase 6 - higher pressure to the north / blocked , phase 7 - a bit more unsettled with lower pressure in the vicinity of the UK, phase 8 - lower pressure drops to the south with signal for higher pressure to the east and my second reason is developments in the strat with the chance of a stratospheric warming developing during the second half of November and the recent MJO phases would appear to suggest this too. 

 

Well the signal for the easterly may have faded but it was always a 50/50 chance and given it is still November it would have been a bonus anyway, although some areas of the UK have seen some snow (mainly higher areas) and has been plenty of frosts and also an ice day last week in Northern Scotland.

I believe we are currently seeing the feedback from phase 6 of the MJO given some of the models trying to find a more blocked outlook (near Greenland) although we were only in phase 6 for 3 days so anything likely to be very brief, also had a 3 day spell in phase 7 and we are currently in phase 8 so more unsettled conditions would be likely with phase 7 then with phase 8 still unsettled but a restrengthening of the high pressure to the east and also to the west possibly somewhere around Newfoundland.

MJO looks like heading into phase 1 next -    https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_10ee87ce9b95595674142ec32136a6c6.pdf   again still an unsettled picture for the UK with lower pressure close to the UK possibly just to the w / sw but a signal for higher pressure possibly beginning to move toward Greenland and also still higher pressure to the east.

 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is still model output though so surely valid in either thread, sorry though if it is not.

True but if there's a dedicated thread for the stratosphere then it's best to use that. Otherwise this thread could get confusing for newer users.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

True but if there's a dedicated thread for the stratosphere then it's best to use that. Otherwise this thread could get confusing for newer users.

Have to say I disagree here.  The strat is such a crucial element of the story in winter,  so what the models are predicting about it cannot be hived off into a separate thread because it is all connected.  I think the issue only arose because about 5 of us reacted to the T384 GFS 6z chart in 1 minute, which was the only poignant thing to come out of that run to be honest.

[Sceptical]

18 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

True but if there's a dedicated thread for the stratosphere then it's best to use that. Otherwise this thread could get confusing for newer users.

Agreed.

If a post is off topic, use the report function.

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Have to say I disagree here.  The strat is such a crucial element of the story in winter,  so what the models are predicting about it cannot be hived off into a separate thread because it is all connected.  I think the issue only arose because about 5 of us reacted to the T384 GFS 6z chart in 1 minute, which was the only poignant thing to come out of that run to be honest.

So what precisely is the point of the Strat thread then and equally, the point of this one?. And if the argument is that they are connected so it is legit to post in here then surely any strat post needs to show a direct connection to current model output, not just woolly speculation

Personally I agree with Jordan Smith above

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by knocker

[Mapantz]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Have to say I disagree here.  The strat is such a crucial element of the story in winter,  so what the models are predicting about it cannot be hived off into a separate thread because it is all connected.  I think the issue only arose because about 5 of us reacted to the T384 GFS 6z chart in 1 minute, which was the only poignant thing to come out of that run to be honest.

No one said it wasn't?

If so many posts in here are going to be focusing solely on the stratosphere, why did we bother making a separate one for that discussion? There's no issue with with some strat chat mixed in with typical model discussion. The same applies to posting stuff to do with the Met Office.. most members are aware that there is a separate thread to use when a post is just going to be containing a Met Office update. However, a model discussion post with a reference to them is fine.

It's about creating a balance for all posters.

If anyone has any concerns, please drop me a PM.

Edited November 17, 2019 by Mapantz

[Jordan S]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Have to say I disagree here.  The strat is such a crucial element of the story in winter,  so what the models are predicting about it cannot be hived off into a separate thread because it is all connected.  I think the issue only arose because about 5 of us reacted to the T384 GFS 6z chart in 1 minute, which was the only poignant thing to come out of that run to be honest.

It may be a crucial element but I guess there is a separate thread for a reason that's all. I give it you think they should both be placed into one thread? I enjoy reading the stratosphere posts but I just feel that they can be rather confusing to people that just want to know what the models are showing for ground level in the next few days weeks etc.  

Edited November 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[Mapantz]

Enough, now.

I have said to PM me with any concerns. Back to the models now, please?!

And just to be clear on this, as it seems some are not reading my posts correctly..

I haven't once said that no one is allowed to post about the strat in here.

I have said twice now, strat chat is fine if you're mixing it in to musings around standard model discussion, it's exactly the same as our guidelines for tweets/met office, which has always been the same.

Stop stressing and continue as normal - there's no issues at all here. 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Mapantz

[Jordan S]

Using Arpege.. 

You can see a very cold night in store for Scotland and cold too for Ireland and Northern Ireland with temperatures below freezing but Scotland coldest with - 7c being shown Woudn't suprise me if temps a bit lower are recorded in sheltered parts of Scotland..

Showery areas of rain for Eastern and central parts of England along with more general cloud keep temperatures into mid single figures although that'll still feel cold in a northeasterly breeze.

The showery rain eases by morning to leave all parts mostly dry for tomorrow. Some sunshine too although that won't do much for temperatures more cloud and perhaps some rain clipping east anglia later although unlikely. 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[Ali1977]

Icon first out the blocks, similar to other charts at 180 with some WAA upto Greenland, but a big low between that and us preventing any form of Northern flow - at 180 anyway!! 

[phil nw.]

Any way back to the NWP 500 hPa modeling.

The later 06 GFS ens. showing continuity with the demise of the eastern ridge after day 10 now;

Indeed signs now of low ht anomalies further east over Scandinavia as the bulk of the pv is shown to move across to Siberia by day 10.This on both model suites.

A lot depends on the jet -if it buckles north in the Atlantic then a cold flow from the north/north west i alluded to yesterday may be a viable option.

A brief milder spell later next week then possibly another fall in temperatures seems quite possible as there is little desire from the outputs to move the jet much further north at this stage.

The next runs are out soon so it will be interesting to see how they see things going for week 2.

[Weathizard]

Respect to @Ali1977 for the cold hunting, I’ve given up the ghost on the next few weeks. Whilst we have the heights to our east not budging it’s going to be nye on impossible to get any half decent cold in. Let’s get the heights building more over the UK with the main vortex lobe moving to Siberia and we can go from there as a decent starting point in early December.

Greece will then get a cold blast knowing our luck My biggest worry is the vortex firing up, getting towards that time now where it will really start shifting up the gears.

[That ECM]

Raised an eyebrow. Might not come to much but.....

Edited November 17, 2019 by That ECM

[SouthLondonCold]

GFS also looks slightly better re heights to the South of Greenland, probably clutching at straws though.

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, SouthLondonCold said:

GFS also looks slightly better re heights to the South of Greenland, probably clutching at straws though.

It does yes your correct.id suggest the next low will come threw from the ESB and blow things up.barring the insipid block to the east it's not a bad looking nhp.that said the mentioned high is providing a push threw scan towards Greenland

Edited November 17, 2019 by swfc