Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[beng]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Will the ‘ridge’ hold from Russia to e Canada or will the Russian vortex extend its influence south to meet the Atlantic troughing ?

if the ridge holds then expect more of the same but the core of the wet further north as the jets gets further north with the slight easing of the block to our east (and more importantly the troughing to our south)  ....if the vortex punches through then we could get a mean northerly flow or sou’wester ...... yeah , not so clear cut then! 

Thanks Nick, explains why we're seeing the models apparently flip-flopping at the medium range. 

[knocker]

Just now, beng said:

Thanks Nick, explains why we're seeing the models apparently flip-flopping at the medium range. 

I'm sorry that's rather above my pay grade could you explain that in simple terms please

[beng]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I'm sorry that's rather above my pay grade could you explain that in simple terms please

Simply that small variations in how the models are handling the distribution on energy in the jet are likely resulting in big changes to the predicted surface patterns at the moment. Hence the rather large change in the ECM medium range output this morning.

 

[carinthian]

Looking at the latest ARPEGE overview picture, this appears to dig the trough more acutely than the other main models by Mid-week and would allow much of England and Wales to dry out. Yesterday, the lesser known Indian Model showed this  scenario that would in the later time span lead to another low formation over SW Europe which could again move north towards the British Isles bringing more wind and rain especially to the South East next weekend with a surface flow still from the continent or North Sea , albeit with uppers not that cold , surface temps will still be chilly. Maybe one to watch.

C

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, beng said:

Simply that small variations in how the models are handling the distribution on energy in the jet are likely resulting in big changes to the predicted surface patterns at the moment. Hence the rather large change in the ECM medium range output this morning.

 

I agree bur this always applies in a complex evolution as I have attempted to point out in many posts, and it doesn't just apply to the ecm. But I fail to see how the future possibility of a trough descending into Europe associated with the movement of the vortex explains this as it has been going on for quite a long time

Edited November 17, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

If that last comment is aimed at me I never suggested the evolving pattern was clear cut. There are always alternatives

 No need for the sensitivity knocks ...... comment had nowt to do with you ..... was  that we could see a northerly or a southerly which isn’t really v helpful as a prediction......

despite your weird fascination with reality and probability rather than fantasy,  your contributions on here are valued ! 

[Paul_1978]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How about this to wake up to. Best warming in the strat yet,

It always at T+384 though and never gets any nearer. If we get these charts at sub 300 hours then it might get interesting

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 No need for the sensitivity knocks ...... comment had nowt to do with you ..... was  that we could see a northerly or a southerly which isn’t really v helpful as a prediction......

despite your weird fascination with reality and probability rather than fantasy,  your contributions on here are valued ! 

Fine it was just that it was posted following on from my post In fact was mulling over the possibility myself

Yes I'm afraid that's a character flaw that I have unsuccessfully tried to eradicate over the years

Edited November 17, 2019 by knocker

[Ali1977]

Day 10 on the GEM holds interest for coldies, if it wasn’t for that little disturbance near Newfoundland then winter would be on its way!! 

[IDO]

24 minutes ago, beng said:

Simply that small variations in how the models are handling the distribution on energy in the jet are likely resulting in big changes to the predicted surface patterns at the moment. Hence the rather large change in the ECM medium range output this morning.

 

...for  most on here, these changes in surface conditions really do not deliver the nirvana of a cold plunge. The differences are more to do with how rainy it will be. I do not see any changes to the NH cold flow and bearing in mind the great synoptic this month and the total absence of FI "boom" charts, it does suggest that no matter what small changes occur with the main pattern, cold is elusive. The models are very inclined in FI to show us some cold and snowy charts (with the right back story), so the lack of such, is telling IMO.

[SLEETY]

Back to looking at 10 day charts and beyond which never verify,in hope for something colder.

Usual setup coming to fruition as we head into the actual winter months again,lol

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It always at T+384 though and never gets any nearer. If we get these charts at sub 300 hours then it might get interesting

Give it time, its only just started showing a warming that strong so you need to wait a couple of runs, will probably downgrade slightly on the 6z as it did yesterday, i am not that hopeful of an SSW this early as i would imagine more pros would be making more of it on the forums, would be interesting to see the mountain torque charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 on the GEM holds interest for coldies, if it wasn’t for that little disturbance near Newfoundland then winter would be on its way!! 

 

Not backed up by its ensemble suite though unfortunately.

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not backed up by its ensemble suite though unfortunately.

Agreed, but if (a very big if ) this GEM pattern was correct at day 10 then it would be day 12/13 before we’d see the cold. Hopefully an improving picture for coldies today though.

Really, I think off the back of the Strat warming  is where we next need to be looking, towards late Dec. Anything before then is always a bonus though. 

[Jordan S]

Morning .

Gfs paints a quiet picture for a few days across the UK and apart from some patchy areas of rain for England and Wales today which could pep up in a line through the wash to Isle of Wight for a time tonight before fizzling out its not looking too bad with some drier spells particularly for Scotland and Northern Ireland but some showery pieces of rain at times.

Tomorrow and Tuesday are looking mostly dry for much of the country with fairly light winds so fog could be an issue perhaps exacerbated by wet ground..

GFS..

Some frost too particularly for Scotland where there tomorrow some places in central Scotland may not get above 0c after a very cold night tonight although the rest of Scotland climbing just above before a harsh frost sets in for Northern England and Scotland come tomorrow evening as soon as the weak sun sets.

Arpege tomorrow morning..

Tomorrow mid afternoon..

But by Wednesday Atlantic frontal systems will begin to try to push in but only manages to effect the far west and southwest until Thursday night into Friday where they break through the stubborn build of pressure out east or more the block releases its hold on Eastern areas.

Wednesday..

Thursday and Friday..

This then puts us in a very unsettled patten next weekend with heavy rain at times pushing north through most areas..

Sunday 24th and Monday 25th..

There will be Drier spells in between. feeling milder and windier too. By Thursday 28th so a long way off and unlikely to verify but Gfs gives us a very windy spell.. 

Then the extended range so unreliable time frame shows more bouts of heavy rain continually pushing through at frequent intervals with perhaps another very windy spell by the next day Friday 29th and very wet too as depicted by the chart below..

Eventually turning drier towards the end of the run with high pressure building in. I'm simply showing what it shows by no means take the extended range too seriously but the pattern of low pressure close to us remains.. alternatively the block of high pressure to the east may hold the low pressure systems further back to only effect the far southwest for much of the time period of a week or two but currently that looks unlikely. Gfs 10 days accumulated rainfall.. Wettest for Western and southern areas.

Gfs synoptic snapshot for the 27th November a westerly regime for the North Atlantic and UK.. 

Gem still shows a very wet 10 days to come its a very unsettled update with high rainfall totals for England and Wales.  Synoptics generally more unsettled too.. This snapshot demonstrates this run well with a much more unsettled model compared to the others.. Mainly very wet due to higher pressure having enough influence out east to keep weather fronts over the country for extended periods of time.. 

Thursday 21st..

Friday 22nd..

Gem 10 day accumulated rainfall..

Ecmwf a little stronger with high pressure out east so drier for Eastern areas with this scenario. A snapshot below..

Phew took an hour to do this post.

Edited November 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

It would appear my hope of the Euro heights taking over and drying the UK out have nosedived over the last 48 hours.

EC 144 looked OK potential wise 

But ends with very poorly

 

It would have been nice to see a cold high during November, one of my favourite months..clearly,that ship has sailed.

[Methuselah]

Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear!

There's nae much sign of a PPE (purple people eater) paying us a visit, any time soon...On the contrary, the future looks orange!

   

Never mind...it ain't even winter yet!

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear!

There's nae much sign of a PPE (purple people eater) paying us a visit, any time soon...On the contrary, the future looks orange!

 

Never mind...it ain't even winter yet!

No.......................

Or is there????

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[IDO]

JFF but in FI the NH profile on the GFS 06z screams surrender by the tPV, primed to be shredded with the right attacks:

Whatever the disappointments of November for the UK, reaching December with the above profile remains a bonus. Usual caveats apply.

[swfc]

Bit of a dog's dinner on the 6z GFS.more mobile later on and I guess late autumn nothingness from a colder perspective.

[Ice Day]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

It always at T+384 though and never gets any nearer. If we get these charts at sub 300 hours then it might get interesting

The warming appears to be initiating around 27th November, so that's a date to keep an eye on.  The peak of the SSW (if it does happen) is outside of 384 at the moment so we're not able to see it's full strength yet.  The mornings 6z is still continuing to show a potential strong warming, actually even stronger than the 0z.

252  312  384 

I wouldn't put too much money on the GFS having this nailed, however it did forecast last years warming quite well, albeit that the result was that we never really felt its effects on the ground (certainly not the effects most on here crave!).

Looking at the 6z running at the moment, there does appear to be a gradual tightening of the PV as we head into December, which is to be expected.

324 

For those of the cold persuasion, this is going to be a game of patience (when is it not!?).  My personal belief is that we won't see anything notable cold wise before mid December at the earliest, but never say never!

[Mike Poole]

Well it looks like game on in the strat, GFS 6z at T384, might have teeth this one!

[booferking]

Strat warming getting stronger by the run white Christmas anyone.

[Frosty.]

The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean is mild & unsettled which it has been for days..seriously, I think cold expectations are too high and we need a reality check!!

[northwestsnow]

6Z as others have posted, does provide a serious warming i the strat ..

I will happily endure a few more weeks of waterboarding if we hit the jackpot later on..