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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Although potential and realization are two entirely different things, today's GFS 12Z operational ends with plenty of the former. Now that mainland Europe looks to be, at last, showing signs of a cool-down...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

NAVGEM at 180, won’t be far off a northerly a few days on I reckon.

Yes - clutching straws.

85C70AAE-F726-4E07-A8CE-A84065E87A4C.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ecm if we can absorb the incoming low,

we could well be on to a winner winner chicken dinner for coldies.

these little surface ridges can stear weather into chaos.

2082672390_ECM1-72(1).thumb.gif.a0099ef9ae932bda6df1a23d10d7c03a.gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

NAVGEM at 180, won’t be far off a northerly a few days on I reckon.

Yes - clutching straws.

85C70AAE-F726-4E07-A8CE-A84065E87A4C.png

no i agree the mother vortex is really over our side of the pole.

and gfs in lala land would most certainly lead on to better lets see what the ecm looks like at 240 hrs although i feel 96 hrs is fi.983005142_gfs-0-384(3).thumb.png.6418ead278eca577745b2f8a2d89c608.png

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Nothing like each other even by 144, especially just to the SE of Greenland!! 

63B96D46-FC7B-4732-90F7-593B6878458A.png

83080014-3249-4EBC-80C5-8562BCD65D3A.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

ecm says nope very big batttle going on

325615033_ECM1-168(2).thumb.gif.c5b0f9430556ae7a327eed2029ecf084.gif

Could the WAA push high enough into Greenland to produce a Northerly !! 

26E53024-BB7D-4523-8FB0-7EEDD5754157.jpeg
 

In a word - NO , but the positive thoughts were there!! 

4918BCC0-13B8-4A67-98DF-FFD928DF321B.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nothing like each other even by 144, especially just to the SE of Greenland!! 

63B96D46-FC7B-4732-90F7-593B6878458A.png

83080014-3249-4EBC-80C5-8562BCD65D3A.png

i agree this fazing issue nick sussex  talks about.

and big chunk of vortex direct north.

still plenty of time yet.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

EC explodes at the 168hour mark but looks at odds to given the 6z.heights look interesting up the west coast of greenland

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Could the WAA push high enough into Greenland to produce a Northerly !! 

26E53024-BB7D-4523-8FB0-7EEDD5754157.jpeg

possibly a look at the jet stream might tell a better story.

but still knife edge stuff.

Rrea00120101201.thumb.gif.c270294dbc37071b166290582d754df4.gifRrea00120101130.thumb.gif.07672b51a595b7b8e8d54811486590f7.gif

november and december 2010 long for a real 1050 mb or 1060 mb heights over greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A snapshot from the ecm for the end of next week showing the energy distribution  involving the upstream evolution, another trough tracking east across the Atlantic and the immovable block in the east

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4337600.thumb.png.a68a86b63737a5ab4fb789e541b792b6.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4424000.thumb.png.e504d2e16aa8908b145df22a6df0a6fa.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-4510400.thumb.png.3aeaaade5acc469c9de30fd8cbb46db4.png

120.thumb.png.ffaf0f952388614de7919e2964542e5b.png144.thumb.png.7db3e4fab0903ffefe57bda202ba108a.pngindex.thumb.png.9d5ca5f7c924c1a89ff2fc9a501827a7.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

What an absolutely magnificent ECM 12z.

image.thumb.png.dc523e13162c621200581efea551579a.png

The whole thing has collapsed in the space of 48 hours worth of runs.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I’d take that, jet digging south, PV not upto much prob be quite cold a few days on.

9A30E209-7A22-4000-AB26-1953C28C1DA0.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What an absolutely magnificent ECM 12z.

image.thumb.png.dc523e13162c621200581efea551579a.png

The whole thing has collapsed in the space of 48 hours worth of runs.

Yep.even from earlier today it's changed alarmingly tbh???mild,miserable and wet at day ten!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What an absolutely magnificent ECM 12z.

image.thumb.png.dc523e13162c621200581efea551579a.png

The whole thing has collapsed in the space of 48 hours worth of runs.

To be honest, I've seen much worse charts for the end of November. However, I know what you mean. We should be used to that by now though. 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d take that, jet digging south, PV not upto much prob be quite cold a few days on.

9A30E209-7A22-4000-AB26-1953C28C1DA0.png

1633018447_InkedECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.3b0aba8e63a44b20908b61e18cc27a9b.gif

perhaps a wedge there is a good place.

but it looks worse than it is,

i reckon and if the changes are as dramatic as that then just proves how fickle models can be at this time of year.

so much going on. interesting though.

461368518_ECM1-240(4).thumb.gif.3e7f765d68c29ab50f8cebe5059955ed.gif

or not very wet and windy.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I keep wondering why the high pressure cell to the east of Iceland that consecutive gfs and ecm ops were very keen on has suddenly evaporated? 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Well via the ECM you can safely say there is next to no cold air to tap into. Lets get to Dec and regroup imo. I have to admit a dry spell would be welcomed by most.

Oh and btw, it is phasing of LP systems, not fazing

 

ECH0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What an absolutely magnificent ECM 12z.

image.thumb.png.dc523e13162c621200581efea551579a.png

The whole thing has collapsed in the space of 48 hours worth of runs.

That’s because winter is fast approaching!  Have the early promising signs let us down yet again?!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Apart from a more coherent vortex over northern Russia and a less intense ridge west north America the ext EPS is much along the same lines as the GEFs except it does make rather more of the ridge/vortex extension over southern Greenland and thus the latter concentrates the upper flow in the eastern Atlantic where the weakening European ridge has become less influential This would portend unsettled with temps around average perhaps a tad above.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.5d7eccdb51d602028d9d4ce06e1792ba.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.bfd29c06491550b3156d42b429d86932.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.cffe6ca05f2154b54ca310defcff044a.png

NOAA is in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.d0217dd003c26aaf43b55ce9134dac69.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Although potential and realization are two entirely different things, today's GFS 12Z operational ends with plenty of the former. Now that mainland Europe looks to be, at last, showing signs of a cool-down...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Cool down?  Are we above average now Pete?

 

BFTP

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